On February 24, 2022, Russia began its so-called “Special Military Operation.” It has been three years since this operation— which has since escalated into a full-scale war against Ukraine. Currently, Russian troops control 20% of Ukrainian land, occupying Crimea and parts of Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Luhansk, Mykolayiv, and Zaporizhzhya Oblasts. The Biden administration, along with its EU allies, has unequivocally supported the Ukrainian regime. However, after the Trump administration came to power, the US government’s stance on Ukraine became less clear. Recently, Trump proposed a mineral deal with Ukraine, calling it a “very big deal,” adding that it would be a win-win situation for both the US and Ukraine. The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has flown to Washington– to seal the deal. So, what is this deal? What will Trump gain from it? Will the deal secure Trump’s full support for Ukraine against Russian expansion?
Following a vigorous lobbying campaign by the US president, Ukrainian and Trump administration officials announced that they had achieved an agreement that would allow the US to receive earnings from Ukraine’s minerals and other natural resources. The deal is about to be signed on 28th February, Friday. The Ukrainian president arrived in Washington on Thursday. The very same day Donald Trump hosted British prime minister Keir Starmer in the oval office, where one of the key issues they talked about was Ukrainian security and peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
The Trump administration has disclosed a draft agreement on 26th February. According to the proposed agreement, half of Ukraine’s future natural resource monetization earnings—including those from essential minerals, oil, and gas—as well as profits from related infrastructure, like port facilities and liquefied natural gas terminals, would go into the fund. However, revenue from active mines, oil wells, and other natural resources enterprises would not be used by the fund. A portion of the proposed fund will be reinvested in Ukraine, according to the deal. Nevertheless, Trump’s initial demand for a 500 billion dollars fund from Ukrainian minerals is not on the table right now.
Before the recent progress about the deal, Donald Trump in an interview with Fox News– demanded- the U.S. should get a slice of Ukraine’s vast natural resources as compensation for the hundreds of billions it has spent on helping Kyiv resist Russia’s full-scale invasion. Ukraine holds huge deposits of critical elements and minerals, from lithium to titanium, which are vital to manufacturing modern technologies. Large amounts of coal, oil, gas, and uranium are also found there; however, most of these resources are located in areas that are governed by Russia.
From Greenland to Ukraine: Trump’s Pursuit of Strategic Resources
Ukraine isn’t the first country that has been under Trump’s “Resource Rush” policy. Before taking the Oval office, he first set his sight on Greenland.
On 15th August 2019, The Wall Street Journal exposed a ridiculous story. The news was about Trump’s purchasing Greenland. The globe reacted incredulously when the Wall Street Journal revealed that US President Donald Trump had regularly indicated interest in buying Greenland from Denmark and had directed his White House counsel to investigate the situation. Fast forward to 2024, Trump has been re-elected as 47th President. He again reiterated his interest in buying Greenland. In his remarks on Truth Social in December, he stated that , “For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity.”
Then in January he showed interest in making a mineral deal with Ukraine. At first, he mentioned about 500 billion dollars that the US funded to Ukraine, which was basically a falsified statement. He asked the Ukrainian President to accept this deal to repay the US’s loan. The United States provided 114.2 billion euros ($119.8 billion) in financial, humanitarian, and military aid between 2022 and the end of 2024, with 64 billion euros going to the military, according to the Kiel Institute, a German economic research organization.
For the proposed minerals deal, a Ukrainian source told AFP, “They want to extract $500 billion from us, and there are no American obligations in the agreement regarding guarantees or investments, everything about them is very vague.”
But the current condition is positive for Trump’s administration. On 28th February, Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will meet with President Donald Trump to finalize an agreement for U.S. involvement in Ukraine’s mineral sector as Kyiv seeks to win back U.S. backing to fend off Russia’s incursion while Trump begins negotiations with Moscow.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China has the biggest reserves of rare earth minerals, with around 44 million tons; the United States is in seventh place with 1.9 million tons. With 21 million tons, Brazil comes in second, followed by Vietnam (3.5 million), Russia (3.8 million), Australia (5.7 million), and India (6.9 million). Canada comes in eighth with 0.8 million tons.
The mineral deal will give leverage to the US against China. Minerals such as uranium, titanium, and rare earth elements are abundant in Ukraine. These are essential for producing electronics, renewable energy, and military technologies. The United States would have a national security advantage if it controlled such resources, especially in light of the rivalry from nations like China, which dominates the rare earth market. At the same time, gaining control over key resources in Ukraine could also enhance the U.S.’s geopolitical influence. By establishing a strong presence in Ukraine’s mineral sector, the U.S. could further exert influence over Eastern Europe, countering Russian power in the region.
Trump Administration’s Comments on Ukraine-Russia War
Unlike the Biden administration, Donald Trump and his allies were against unconditional support for Ukraine. Before being elected as president, Trump mentioned his intention about ending the Russia-Ukraine war and hitting a peace deal.
On October 17, 2024, In a podcast interview, former President Donald J. Trump flipped the facts of the biggest European military operation since World War II by accusing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of being responsible for Russia’s invasion of his nation. He claimed– Zelensky should have never started the war.
On November 19, 2024, President Joe Biden’s apparent green light for Ukraine to strike Russia with US-made long-range missiles has caused consternation among some of Donald Trump’s allies. The president was attempting to “get World War Three going” prior to his father’s inauguration, according to a tweet from Donald Trump Jr.
In recent times a tug of war between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy broke out. US President Donald Trump referred to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a “dictator without elections” on February 19.. Trump tweeted on his Truth Social platform, “A Dictator without Elections, Zelensky better move fast or he is not going to have a Country left”. His comment was referring to the expiration of five years terms in office for Zelensky. However, Ukrainian law doesn’t require election during wartime.
Trump has been seen as Pro-Russian during his time. He often quoted something like– the war would’ve never happened if I were in power. He slammed the Biden administration for escalating the war. In a campaign rally last year, he openly declared that he would “encourage” Russia to attack any member nation that had not fulfilled its financial obligations. Which indicates the unwillingness of Donald Trump to invest in NATO, questioning whether NATO’s stance on Ukraine is wise and whether it is unnecessarily antagonizing Russia. The US stood as the biggest contributor in NATO and sent more aid to Ukraine than Europe– it was a primary target position for Trump. In various campaigns he attacked the EU for their uneven trade relation with the US and pushing the ball towards the US to support Ukraine. Whereas, geographically, it was the responsibility of the EU to contribute more to Ukraine.
When Zelensky accused of not being invited to talks in Saudi Arabia between the US and Russia, Trump said he was “disappointed” by Ukraine’s reaction, he appeared to blame Ukraine for starting the war, saying the country “could have made a deal” earlier.
Ukraine’s Future at Stake: The Risks Behind the Trump-Zelenskyy Deal
A few days back, Donald Trump accused Zelenskyy of being a dictator. In the span of Friday he, however, expressed, “Our meeting is going to be excellent. We will have a great relationship. Alright. We are well respected. He is someone I greatly admire.” A totally different, compared to last week’s comments. This can be seen as a positive sign for the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. When he was questioned about calling Zelenskyy a dictator, he replied, “Did I say that?” Mr. Trump asked. “I can’t believe I said that. Next question.”
A day before, on Thursday, Trump and Starmer held talks in the Oval office– where the Ukraine issue was discussed. If one analyses the timeline, Zelenskyy’s accepting Trump’s offer has changed Donald Trump’s previous position. To some extent it’s true. But there is a loophole in this scenario.
With the exception of one sentence– “The Government of the United States of America supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace,” the agreement makes no explicit mention of efforts to stop Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or of future security arrangements for the Eastern European nation. On 26th February, Trump declared that the United States would not pay “beyond… very much” for security guarantees, blaming Europe for this. However, he went on to say that “automatic security” would be provided by American workers on Ukrainian territory. At the same time, he mentioned on Tuesday, 25th February– that Ukraine would get “the right to fight on” in return for access to its minerals and suggested the US would continue to supply equipment and ammunition “until we have a deal with Russia”.
Not only in the security dimension, the financial issues can be at risk from this deal. President Trump insisted that the agreement’s profits be utilized to pay back US help to Ukraine for the previous three years. Private firms’ mining of Ukrainian minerals won’t put money back into the US budget. Even if the EU declared on February 24 that it would not seek any of Ukraine’s natural resources in exchange for aid, the Ukraine-US arrangement could set a risky precedent of turning donations into loans after the fact. However, it has proposed to Ukraine its own, very generous, vital minerals accord.
Zelenskyy and Trump’s “Minerals Deal” can be seen as winning for the Trump administration. But will the general people of Ukraine see peace talks held and the security of Ukraine firmly established? The deal can’t bring the best outcome for Ukraine; however, it might become a good sign before Trump calls for Vladimir Putin to sit in on the peace talks. But for now, this speculative deal will be a combination of remaining insecure and keeping Donald Trump happy.
