27th January, 2025. For the second time in the last ten years, rebels from the March 23 Movement, or M23, captured Goma– the provincial capital of North Kivu. This marked a significant increase in the fighting in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Since the M23 claimed to have taken control on January 27, at least 773 people have been killed there. Rebels have also taken control of Sake and Minova, among other towns in North Kivu. On 3rd February, The M23 rebel coalition announced that it would implement a unilateral ceasefire starting on Tuesday, 4th February. But that didn’t last long; as the group revoked the ceasefire and took control over a mining town in the South Kivu region of the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. By taking Nyabibwe on Lake Kivu, the rebels are getting closer to Bukavu, the provincial capital, which is about 40 miles to the south. Notwithstanding, the rebels last week informed– they don’t have any plans to take this city.
Nyabibwe is another mineral enriched area like Goma. Adding to that, this newly fallen city under the rebels is a business hub. So why is this rebel coalition taking control over Congolese cities? Who are the M23? Are they backed by Rwanda? And the most important of all– Will Africa witness another regional conflict?
M23: The Origin
The National Congress for the Defense of the People (CNDP), a Tutsi-led rebel organization, and the Congolese government signed a peace agreement on March 23, 2009. Negotiated following the arrest of CNDP leader General Laurent Nkunda, the 2009 treaty contained clauses pertaining to the release of prisoners, the CNDP’s conversion to a political party, the reintegration of refugees, and the integration of CNDP members into the Congolese army and government institutions.
Former CNDP soldiers rebelled against the Congolese government in 2012, claiming that the government had not upheld the 2009 agreement by integrating Tutsi fighters into the army, protecting minorities, and allocating resources fairly. This led to the creation of M23. It claimed that, its goal is to protect the rights of Congolese Tutsis and other minorities, particularly defending them against Hutu rebel groups that fled to the Democratic Republic of the Congo after participating in the 1994 Tutsi genocide. In 2012, the M23 rebellion was launched under a military commander– known as Osco “The Terminator” Ntaganda. Around 300 army officials had joined the rebellion. They took over the city of Goma for 18 months, until the Congolese army with US assistance defeated this group in November 2013. M23 accepted the disarmament demand by The DRC government.
A New Offensive in 2022: “Necessary for Our Defense”
On March 28, The M23 rebels were again on the front page, when they launched an attack on Congolese government positions in Rutshuru, close to the Ugandan and Rwandan borders.
The once-strongest rebel group in eastern DRC maintained a fragile ceasefire for almost ten years.
Within the M23, discontent had been increasing in the years preceding this incident. The group complained about what it saw as the Congolese government’s tardiness in providing amnesties and promising economic opportunities in Congo to its fighters, who were subsequently left trapped in Rwanda and Uganda. M23 fighter factions had conducted minor assaults within Congo over those previous years. The M23 said that its current military activities were defensive in character in response to strikes by the FDLR, which it said was collaborating with the Congolese government. However, the Congolese army denied any involvement with the FDLR.
The Democratic Front for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) is another faction of this conflictual area. Formed in 2000 from two branches of the Revolutionary Army of Rwanda, which was composed of the remnants of Rwanda’s defeated government that fled into the Democratic Republic of Congo. Even though it is much weaker, the FDLR is still a security threat to both Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. However, in November 2013, it declared that it might be willing to disarm along with other armed groups after M23 surrendered.
Willy Ngoma, the spokesperson for M23, stated that while the organization was content with its current territorial position, it may attempt to take over more land, including Goma, if it were “necessary for our defense.”
The fighting intensified in January 2025; but the fall of North Kivu’s provincial capital- Goma sent a shockwave all around the region. Even the UN and the USA showed grave concern about the human rights violations that’s taking place under M23 rule. In 2012, similar violations were done by the M23 rebels, when they seized Goma city for the first time. The United Nations reported on Wednesday that at least 2,900 people had died in the struggle for Goma, a far greater number than had been previously reported. After breaking the ceasefire unilaterally, M23 craves for more enriched lands of DRC. “We want to liberate all of the Congo,” Corneille Nangaa, the head of a political-military alliance which includes the M23, told tens of thousands of spectators who had been summoned to the meeting on Thursday.
Influence of Rwanda: The Background Player in the Conflict
One of the core players of this battle is Kagame, the longtime leader of Rwanda. His lengthy history of military action in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is connected to the events that followed the Rwandan massacre in 1994. Although Rwanda frequently asserts that it would take all necessary steps to protect itself, it does not acknowledge giving military backing to the M23.
According to Kagame, Rwanda’s top objective is to eliminate an armed force that was established by the Hutu genocide criminals, who killed Rwandan Tutsis before escaping to what is now eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. He has said that the army of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has joined forces with them and others to threaten Rwanda in addition to killing Congolese Tutsis, whom the M23 says it is fighting to protect.
Rwanda has also deployed high-tech military equipment on the battlefield in North Kivu, including mobile air-defense systems and precision-guided munitions. The United Nations, including Security Council members such as the US, France and the United Kingdom, agree that Rwandan forces are operating in Congo. Rwanda’s government, however, has never publicly admitted to being involved.
Rwanda and Congo share a 221 kilometers long border in between; and, DRC is almost ninety times bigger than Rwanda. The smaller one has better political stability than other states in the region. Whereas, the corrupt and obsolete military personnel are getting kicked-out from their own soil against the rebels.
Heightened Tension: Full-fledged War or Mediation?
Right now, the situation is heated up. No sign of reduction in the conflict. The tug of war between Rwandan leader and Congolese leader is flaring up the dire situation Meanwhile the M23 rebels are day by day showing their ambitions. M23’s political leader – Corneille Nangaa, said during a briefing, “We want to go to Kinshasa, take power and lead the country.” Nevertheless, did not portray or disclose how the rebels planned to advance on the capital; which is more than 1,500 kilometers away.
Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi, meanwhile, called on young people to enlist massively in the military, as a crucial meeting of neighbors asked the Congolese government to talk with the rebels. Whereas, Paul Kagame, the leader of Rwanda, said he had a conversation with Joao Lourenco, the president of Angola, who is a conflict mediator and had met with the leader of Congo the day before. Both leaders agreed to cooperate with other African nations to end the fighting.
When all other African countries, along with the UN and the US try to mediate another ceasefire to this conflict– the war is taking a shift in another direction. The possibility of a regional war is exacerbated by the tussle between the South African leader and the Rwandan leader. Till now, 14 South African peacekeepers are dead; including, three Malawians and a peacekeeper serving with the UN mission in Congo, whose nationality has not been revealed. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa blamed the “Rwanda Defense Force militia” for the fighting and death of its 14 peacekeepers. In response to Ramaphosa’s remark, Kagame became enraged and referred to the South African peacekeepers as a “belligerent force” that collaborates with armed groups that target Rwanda. The Rwandan leader stated on the social media site X that “Rwanda will deal with the matter in that context any day if South Africa prefers confrontation.”
The sign of mediation hasn’t functioned yet. After boastful statements by M23 leaders, the situation is deteriorating more than ever. The war-torn Africa might delve into another prolonged conflict between two rival states. And the people, like always, have to pay the most in the conflict in the name of, “National Security.”
