Authors: Stephen Nix and Mark Dietzen*
When Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko exiled his democratic rival Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya after he fraudulently claimed victory in the 2020 presidential election, he expected her to fade into obscurity. After all, if a woman were to be elected as president, it would cause her to “collapse, poor thing,” as he infamously remarked during the presidential campaign.
But Ms. Tsikhanouskaya has done anything but fade away. In the five years since being forced to leave Belarus, she has worked tirelessly to unite the Belarusian democratic movement and build the alternative democratic institutions that will be needed when change finally comes to her homeland. With Lukashenko set to hold another sham election on Sunday, Belarus’ friends in America and across the free world should reinforce their support for this brave woman’s endeavor and the movement she leads.
Lukashenko’s repressive control of Belarus – where he has ruled since 1994 – may not be new, but political conditions in the country have deteriorated even further since 2020. Having long sought to balance his political, economic, and security reliance on Russia by making overtures to the West, Lukashenko responded to the surge of grassroots pressure for democratic reform by cementing his reliance on the Kremlin – further surrendering its sovereignty to Moscow under the guise of a supranational Union State. Whether supplying boots on the ground in Ukraine or training Cuban regime soldiers in Minsk, Lukashenko has shown himself to be firmly aligned with the enemies of freedom.
Sunday’s presidential election will deploy all the tools in the authoritarian playbook to ensure the “right” result is reached. Special efforts to silence potential election critics have been ongoing throughout 2024, with more than 5,800 Belarusians convicted in political administrative cases and some 1,700 convicted in political criminal cases. Over the past year, Belarusian courts made nearly 1,500 decisions recognizing information products, symbols, and publications as “extremist materials,” a designation which carries significant jail time. According to the 2024 World Press Freedom Index, Belarus is the most dangerous country for journalists in Europe – making it extremely difficult for citizens to access any information that isn’t regime propaganda. What’s more, the electoral framework has been so narrowed that not even a token democratic candidate has been allowed onto the 2025 ballot.
As Lukashenko prepares to declare victory in yet another fabricated election, Ms. Tsikhanouskaya has used her unique legitimacy as the rightful winner of the 2020 election to develop political institutions which act as an alternative government-in-exile: the Belarusian Democratic Forces. Her achievement should be held up as an example to freedom fighters everywhere, and is a model of how democratic opponents of authoritarians can prepare a viable alternative to despotism.
On the international front, the Office of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has – against incredible odds – conducted a formidable campaign of public diplomacy: making the case for freedom to key allies around the world, safeguarding the interests and rights of Belarusians, and unifying the Belarusian Democratic Forces behind her. The leaders of the movement have also established a United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, which functions as proxy ministries in exile, and a Coordination Council, which operates as the representative body of the Belarusian Democratic Forces, with a mandate to develop democratic policies and reforms and initiate public engagement on key issues.
The United States, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, and the European Parliament are among those countries and institutions which have announced that they will not recognize the results of Sunday’s so-called elections. This should be a consensus position throughout the free world, and should galvanize further international support so that the Belarusian Democratic Forces will have the legitimacy and institutions they need to govern when change finally comes to Belarus.
*Mark Dietzen is the Resident Program Director for Belarus at the International Republican Institute, based in Vilnius.