The year 2024 has marked a significant moment in the trajectory of China’s space program, which reflects the broader strategic ambitions of President Xi Jinping’s leadership. As China positions itself as a major space power, the implications for global geopolitics are profound. The traditional concept of geopolitics is increasingly reshaped by space and technology, and China’s space strategy plays a central role in this transformation. It is particularly significant that, under Donald Trump’s presidency, there will be little hope for improving the already strained relation between the United States and China- two of the world’s foremost space powers.
As multiple nations advance their space capabilities to achieve both economic and geopolitical objectives, China views space power as a critical component of its comprehensive national power. The concept of comprehensive national power, first articulated by Deng Xiaoping in 1984, emphasizes the need to evaluate a nation’s strength in a holistic manner. Deng’s assertion that “In measuring a country’s national power, one must look comprehensively and from all sides” remains a guiding principle for China’s strategic outlook. Under President Xi, China’s vision for expanding its space capabilities goes beyond balancing the global power equation; it is an integrated strategy that aligns its economic, defense, and foreign policy objectives.
In recent years, despite economic uncertainty, China has maintained substantial investments in its space program, reflecting its commitment to long-term space goals. Notable achievements in 2024 include:
1. Chang’e-6 Mission: China became the first country to retrieve samples from the lunar far side, with the uncrewed Chang’e-6 spacecraft landing in the South Pole-Aitken Basin, a giant crater on the Moon’s far hemisphere.
2. Guowang Megaconstellation: China launched the first 10 satellites of its Guowang megaconstellation on December 16 using a Long March 5B rocket. The constellation, aimed at providing global broadband services, is part of China’s broader “new infrastructures” policy, enhancing its digital economy and reaching underserved regions. A second batch of satellites, the Satellite Internet Low-Orbit Group 02, was launched in early 2024.
3. Tiangong Space Station: As of April 2024, China’s Tiangong space station has supported over 130 scientific research projects, involving more than 500 global institutes and resulting in over 280 published papers in top international journals. These projects span space life science, medicine, and material science.
4. Shijian-19 Reusable Satellite: China successfully launched its first reusable test satellite, Shijian-19, using a Long March-2D rocket. This milestone positions China to compete with SpaceX in the reusable rocket sector.
Additionally, China’s satellite networks, including Guowang and Qianfan, enhance its soft power by providing global satellite internet services, with agreements such as the one with Brazil set for 2026. These systems also ensure China’s strategic independence from foreign providers like Starlink, underscoring their military and geopolitical value, particularly following the disruption of satellite services in Ukraine during the war.
China’s unwavering investment in its space program reflects a strategic focus on technological self-reliance and geopolitical influence. The achievements of 2024, such as the Chang-6 mission and Guowang megaconstellation, highlight China’s ambition to be a leading power in space. These advancements not only strengthen its scientific capabilities but also enhance its geopolitical standing, particularly through initiatives that reduce dependency on foreign space infrastructure. As China advances in areas like reusable rockets and global broadband services, it has positioned itself as a formidable competitor to western space powers, especially in terms of military and strategic autonomy.
China started the new year by launching a Long March 3B rocket on January 7 to deploy an experimental satellite into space, fulfilling the country’s first space mission of 2025. The key space objectives for 2025 include:
1. Tianwen-2 Mission: In 2025, China will launch the Tianwen-2 mission to sample the near-Earth asteroid Kamoʻoalewa (2016 HO3) and return the samples to Earth. The spacecraft will then perform a gravitational slingshot maneuver to head towards main-belt comet 311P/PANSTARRS.
2. Quantum Communication Satellites: China plans to launch two to three quantum communication satellites into low Earth orbit (LEO) in 2025. These satellites will advance quantum key distribution (QKD) technologies and contribute to the development of a global quantum communications network, with a satellite for medium Earth orbit slated for 2027.
3. Solar Power Satellite: Chinese scientists aim to launch a solar power satellite by 2025. Featuring solar panels spanning 5-6 kilometres, the satellite will beam power back to Earth using microwave or laser beams, marking a significant step in China’s space-based energy research.
China’s space agenda for 2025 reflects a highly strategic and multifaceted approach. By targeting ambitious goals like the Tianwen-2 mission, the nation is expanding its technological capabilities as well as space exploration. The focus on asteroid sampling, particularly with the kamo’oalewa (2016 HO3), highlights China’s aspiration to not only explore new celestial bodies but also to pioneer in asteroid resource utilization, an area of growing interest globally. The spacecraft’s subsequent gravitational slingshot maneuverer to comet 311P/PANSTARRS further demonstrates Chin’s drive to master complex space navigation techniques and solidify its future competitiveness in deep space exploration. Meanwhile, the quantum communication satellite initiative seeks to establish China as a leader in secure, next-generation communications, positioning the nation to influence the future of global digital infrastructure. The solar power satellite project signals China’s intent to lead in space-based energy solutions, offering the potential to revolutionize global energy systems.
China’s space program, under President Xi Jinping, reflects both a challenge to U.S. dominance and a broader geopolitical strategy of asserting technological and strategic power. This ambition mirrors China’s “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy, emphasizing a more assertive global stance. Key initiatives like satellite mega-constellations, reusable rockets, and in-orbit refueling could disrupt the space economy and provide China with a strategic advantage, especially against American competitors like SpaceX.
A growing number of countries are engaging in collaborative space initiatives with China. Whether through BRICS or APSCO, China has emerged as the dominant space power, reshaping the landscape of international space cooperation. China’s space cooperation within the BRICS bloc further strengthens its position. Through the BRICS Remote Sensing Satellite Constellation, China collaborates with Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa on shared satellite infrastructure, enhancing geopolitical influence and technological exchange.
Again, the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organisation (APSCO) includes notable member states like Bangladesh, Iran, Mongolia, Pakistan, Peru, Thailand, & Turkey.
Moreover, the U.S. space landscape is complicated by potential shifts in policy, especially with Elon Musk’s influence on space strategy, given his role with SpaceX and its government contracts. Musk’s advisory role in a potential second Trump term could impact the U.S.-China space rivalry, as SpaceX’s commercial interests intersect with national security and foreign policy priorities.
In conclusion, China’s expanding space capabilities and assertive approach, both technologically and geopolitically, signal a fundamental shift in global power dynamics. As China strengthens its position in space, it not only challenges U.S. dominance but also reshapes geopolitical alliances, particularly in the developing world. This growing influence in space is likely to have far-reaching implications, challenging existing international norms and creating new fault lines in global geopolitics.
