For a long time, the ANZUS Treaty has been a key pillar in Australia’s security strategy. Established in 1951 between Australia, New Zealand, and the United States, it provides the framework for perhaps the most significant Indo-Pacific security alliance through military assistance, intelligence sharing, and strategic stability for Australia (National Museum of Australia, 2023). The rise of China underpins the transformation of the geopolitical landscape across the Indo-Pacific today, with changes in regionally evolving threats and an increased focus on non-traditional security threats such as cyber threats (Tiberghien, 2024). As we move towards 2024, the relevance of ANZUS is questionable. Therefore, this essay will attempt to answer whether ANZUS can still fulfill the purpose of protecting Australia under these conditions. Using a realist lens, this essay argues that ANZUS remains central to the foreign policy pursued by Australia; however, modernization of the treaty may prove necessary to effectively address non-traditional and traditional security threats.
Realism, the prevailing theory in international relations, emphasizes the importance of power, national interests, and survival in an anarchic international system (Mearsheimer, 2001). This reality of realist thinking forms a system with no higher authority that forces states to think of their “self-help” in terms of personal security. Alliances like ANZUS were seen as a great resource for balancing power and strengthening security. For realists, the inseparable conditions that would trigger the formation of alliances by states have or will arise as a result of common interests in relation to the emergence of imminent threats that develop the perception of an imbalance of power (Walt, 1987).
Australia’s primary concern in signing ANZUS was the country’s security in the turbulent and highly volatile region (National Museum of Australia, 2023). Alliances, such as ANZUS, under Realist Theory, are purely defensive instruments in addition to being critical to the regional balance of power. Australia, as a middle power in the Indo-Pacific, has security interests closely linked to regional stability and influence, which ANZUS seeks to uphold (The Future of Australia’s Middle-Power Diplomacy after AUKUS, 2021).
The Relevance of ANZUS in 2024
Historically, ANZUS has been a pillar of Australia’s defense strategy, guaranteeing military and strategic cooperation with the United States and, to a lesser degree, New Zealand (ANZUS Treaty Signed | Robert Menzies Institute, 2023). Formed in the wake of World War II, the treaty was created at a period when Australia was looking for defense against a possible Pacific attack. Particularly during the Cold War and the years following it, ANZUS was vital for decades in safeguarding Australia from outside dangers (Smith, 2018). However, since the signing of the treaty, the dynamics of the Indo-Pacific area have changed dramatically, putting doubt on its ongoing relevance in the current security situation.
The security issues Australia faces in 2024 are becoming more complex. The strategic scene has changed with China’s rapid rise to a regional superpower. China’s increasing military power, especially in the South China Sea, and its more general assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, provide new security issues for Australia (Australian Government, 2022). Realists would contend that this changing balance of power calls for a greater dedication to ANZUS as a necessary instrument for balancing China’s increasing influence and preserving regional stability (Walt, 1987).
ANZUS is also still absolutely essential for military interoperability, intelligence cooperation, and regional influence. Australia’s reliance on the military power of the United States, especially in terms of deterrence, highlights the need for ANZUS to defend national interests in a world growing more multipolar. The alliance also gives Australia a platform for regional diplomacy and support of global security projects, including peacekeeping operations and counterterrorism campaigns (Dell’Era & E. Martín, 2024).
Thus, from a realist viewpoint, ANZUS continues to serve Australia’s national interests by balancing regional power dynamics and providing a security umbrella in an unstable region (Dell’Era & E. Martín, 2024). However, as new threats emerge, the treaty’s framework must evolve to ensure it remains fit for purpose.
Challenges to ANZUS: China’s Rise and Cybersecurity Threats
Rising China presents one of the most major obstacles ANZUS will face in 2024. Particularly with projects like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and military development in the South China Sea, China’s growing economic and military power makes it a progressively major subject in the Indo-Pacific (Liff, 2020). As a major US ally, Australia finds itself in a vulnerable situation balancing its security alliance with the United States against its economic reliance on China (Feigenbaum, 2024). As Australia tries to control its strategic links with both countries, this position complicates Australia’s foreign policy and strains the ANZUS structure even more.
According to realist theory, rising nations like China would undoubtedly strive to disrupt the existing balance of power, and established alliances like ANZUS are critical in countering such challenges (Mearsheimer, 2001). The US-Australia-China triangle is delicate, and while ANZUS remains an important instrument for combating Chinese influence, it may need to be adjusted to better handle this new, multipolar reality.
Furthermore, the escalation of cyber threats presents an additional challenge to ANZUS. Cybersecurity has become a vital non-traditional security concern, impacting national security, economic stability, and the integrity of military operations (Digmelashvili, 2023). In the era of digital warfare, both state and non-state actors are progressively targeting crucial infrastructure and military networks. Cyberattacks, espionage, and information manipulation introduce novel security vulnerabilities that extend beyond the conventional military threats for which ANZUS was initially established (Goldstein & Ge, 2021). The rising prevalence and complexity of cyberattacks, especially from state actors such as China and Russia, underscore the necessity for ANZUS to modernize and include cybersecurity as a fundamental component of the alliance.
A realist approach posits that the escalating cyber threat highlights the need for adaptability in security frameworks such as ANZUS. Although the conventional military emphasis is crucial, the alliance must broaden its scope to confront non-traditional challenges, such as cyber warfare, which might threaten both national and regional security.
Modernizing ANZUS: Adapting to Non-Traditional Security Concerns
Considering the changing nature of security threats, it is clear that ANZUS has to develop from time to time. Its original focus on traditional military threats needs to be extended in relation to non-traditional concerns such as cybersecurity, terrorism, and climate change. Australia’s security strategy has to adapt itself to the emerging challenges increasingly intertwined with traditional military security (Baldwin, 2020).
A prime area for modernization is cybersecurity, as the growing threat of cyberattacks requires the United States, Australia, and New Zealand to work closer together concerning cyber defense, intelligence sharing, and cyber capability development. ANZUS could consider a sub-alliance focusing on these emergent issues to make it a relevant tool for survival in the face of rapidly evolving threats (Smith, 2022).
The treaty could also be modernized by implementing more robust mechanisms for regional security, particularly regarding climate change and humanitarian assistance. Climate-related disasters are occurring more frequently in the Indo-Pacific, and they are being seen as progressively central to national security (Baldwin, 2020). Thus, an update of ANZUS on matters of climate security would not only support regional stability but further entrench Australia’s position in the region as a leader on non-traditional security issues.
On this, realists would argue that these adaptations do not diminish the core roles of ANZUS in terms of the balance of power but rather enhance its capacity to deal with an even greater array of types of security threats. From addressing modern security concerns within its framework, ANZUS remains the important foreign policy apparatus of Australia for the 21st century.
Conclusion
Eventually, the ANZUS Treaty will stand as one of the critical cornerstones of Australia’s security policy in 2024, but it will require modernization. For a long time, the treaty has become a pillar of power balancing and assurance for Australia’s security in a region fraught with uncertainties. However, as changes take place in the Indo-Pacific geopolitical scene due to the rise of China and the increasing importance given to non-traditional security matters, such as cybersecurity and climate change, ANZUS must adjust accordingly to remain effective. From a realist capacity, this alliance still captures the essence of Australia’s national interests, but it must change to suit the traditional and emerging security threats. Modernizing ANZUS becomes necessary, both in terms of Australia’s security and for maintaining stability within the region in an ever-changing world.