The ongoing war in Ukraine has significantly impacted global arms control, as escalating actions on both sides have severely undermined the prospects for arms control negotiations. Key developments, such as Russia’s shift toward a lowered nuclear threshold, the continuous flow of Western weapons into Ukraine, and Ukraine’s use of American-supplied long-range weapons, have further complicated the possibility of meaningful arms control discussions.
Amid heightened tensions, the U.S. provision of long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine has diminished the silver lining of arms control—a fragile hope for cooperation. Ukraine’s small supply of ATACMS will not reverse the battlefield momentum, even with expanded permissions. However, Ukraine’s ability to fire ATACMS deeper into Russia will exacerbate crisis risks. The provision of long-range missiles to Ukraine has impacted the crisis stability in a way that Russia may perceive its conventional forces as vulnerable and increasingly rely on nuclear deterrence to counter Ukraine’s advances. The notion that Ukraine could achieve a decisive victory over Russia remains utopic; the extended range of these missiles may prolong the crisis but is unlikely to alter the war’s trajectory in Ukraine’s favor. Ultimately, the U.S.’s short-sighted decision undermines long-term stability, diminishing Russia’s willingness to negotiate an extension of the expiring New START treaty. It also disrupts the cooperative environment necessary for meaningful arms control, highlighting the deepening polarization in the international system.
In the wake of these events, Russia lowered its nuclear threshold making the conditions for nuclear weapon use less stringent poses significant challenges to the global arms control mechanism and strategic stability because the perception of a lowered threshold also incentivizes the arms race, as states in volatile regions feel compelled to use nuclear weapons to counter perceived threats. Moreover, this trend fosters an arms race as nations invest in modernizing arsenals, undermining multilateral arms control efforts.
That is evident from the past six months alone, Russia has conducted several nuclear-capable missile tests and military drills involving the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Additionally, Russia withdrew its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023, severely impacting arms control negotiations with the U.S signaling a breakdown in trust and shared commitment to nuclear restraint. This heightened mistrust reduces the likelihood of compromise, accelerates the arms race, and undermines global efforts to maintain strategic stability.
Russia claims all this is happening due to the uninterrupted Western supply of weapons to Ukraine that exacerbates tensions, raising concerns over the stability of arms control agreements. A statement released by President Putin, Russia is not in an arms race but Russia needs to prepare its nuclear forces. Putin said that use of nuclear is a last resort to ensure state security. I would like to ensure we are not going to start a new arms race but we will maintain the nuclear forces at the level of necessary sufficiency. Amidst the ongoing geo-political tensions, modern and constantly ready-to-use forces are imperative.”
Moreover, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the “path to peace is more weapons for Ukraine,” ahead of the NATO summit in Washington in July. Such statements from NATO officials could have serious repercussions on Arms Control Agreements.
These escalatory actions on both sides could lead to nuclear war, whether by design or mistake. That’s where real arms control comes into play. The basic essence of these regimes is to halt the escalation of conflicts to a nuclear level, preventing catastrophic outcomes by promoting transparency, mutual restraint, and mechanisms for verification and dialogue.
The US National Security Advisor, Juke Sullivan delivered a speech at Arms Control Association: The White House Arms Control Initiative. He said, “The United States is willing to hold talks with Russia without Preconditions.” As far as Russia is concerned over the matter of Arms Control and Proliferation, Russia does not view the revival of nuclear arms control as its Prime interest in Its Foreign Policy amid the Ukraine war. The statement released by the Russian Foreign Ministry “ Russia was being offered to conduct dialogue exclusively on the terms of the United States and only on those issues which interest Washington.” The Russian prime concern here is to end the NATO support for Ukraine and its further expansion in its backyard. The International Institute of Strategic Studies “ Russia wants to use arms control negotiations as a bargaining chip to end the Western support for Ukraine.”
On 2 December 2023, Russia formally rejected Sullivan’s Proposal for arms control saying that “the proposal of the U.S. side to launch a bilateral dialogue ‘to manage nuclear risks and develop a post-2026 arms control framework’ is unacceptable to Russia. Such ideas are completely inappropriate and untimely for they cannot be considered adequate to today’s realities and Russia-U.S. relations”.
Similarly, the United States has rejected Russia’s proposal to make arms control conditional on the US ending support for Ukraine. Under Secretary of State Bonnie Jenkins, stated that “Russia’s reckless attempts to hold bilateral nuclear arms control hostage will not diminish our steadfast support for Ukraine and European security. We will continue to work with our Allies and partners to support Ukraine’s self-defense against Russian aggression.”
This shows that the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has soured Russia-West relations even more than during the Cold War era, where, despite heightened tensions, both sides would sit for negotiations. However, this war has strained relations to such an extent that neither party is willing to negotiate arms control agreements, which is a decisive blow to global arms control regimes.
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control Agreement between the US and Russia expires in Feb 2026, the ongoing Russo-Ukraine conflict complicates the prospects of a new Arms Control Agreement. Joe Biden also paused the US-Russia Strategic Stability Dialogue, which could lay a foundation for future Arms Control and risk Reduction measures. An important channel for exploring common ground on arms control negotiations post-New START was closed. The situation further deteriorated as hopes for future arms control negotiations dimmed even more when Russia refused to participate in New START and de-ratified the CTBT while reaffirming that it would resume testing if the United States conducted a test first.
In conclusion, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has exacerbated global arms control challenges and deepened divisions between major nuclear powers. Russia’s strategic maneuvers and the West’s steady supply of advanced technology to Ukraine have fueled a cycle of escalation, with both sides becoming increasingly entrenched in a struggle that undermines the goals of weapons proliferation and arms control. Despite these challenges, a renewed commitment to arms control remains essential. While geopolitical tensions and diverging interests hinder dialogue, the need for mechanisms that ensure transparency, stability, and restraint is more urgent than ever.
