Lukashenko And Upcoming Belarus Elections: Navigating Geopolitics and Adversaries

Belarus is all set for the 7th presidential election since the commencement of the office in 1994.

Belarus is all set for the 7th presidential election since the commencement of the office in 1994. The whole of Minsk would be voting to elect their president on January 26 of this year, as decided by the House of Representatives on 23rd October 2024. A statement issued by the Belarusian Central Election Commission (CEC) clarifies that five candidates would be contesting for presidency. They are the incumbent Aleksandr Lukashenko, Alexsandr Khizhyak who is the chairman of the Republican Party of Labour and Justice, Oleg Gaidukerich who is the chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus, Anna Kanopatskaya who is an entrepreneur and Sergei Syrankanov, the first secretary of the communist party of Belarus.

Lukashenko, the incumbent president, has been serving Belarus, a nation sandwiched between Russia, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, for 30 years as of July 20, 1994. Considered the Batka (Father) of Belarus, Lukashenko rose to power promising to fight corruption and leverage standards of living. Accused of rigged balloting during the 2020 election, Lukashenko jailed numerous people, including his opponent, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya who claimed victory against him. She fled to Lithuania owing to the post-election crackdown. Similarily, Viktor Babariko, who had planned to run against Mr. Lukashenko in 2020 was jailed one day before the election day. The arrest of Raman Pratasevich, a journalist who travelled from Greece to Lithuania in a commercial jet, by forcing it to land in Minsk made headlines and was condemned by the West as Air Piracy. These are a few of the many examples of his authoritarian rule.

Lukashenko being a “political gadfly,” rose to the Belarusian political scene as the leader of a faction called Communists for Democracy. He tried to maintain the status quo and wanted to revive the Soviet Union. Eventually his policies and practices were in crossroads with that of BNF (Belarusian Nationalist Front), which tried to instill nationalistic feeling amongst people. The people of Belarus found Lukashenko’s deeds aligned with their interests, and when in 1991 several Soviet republics voted in a referendum on preserving the USSR, 83% of Belarusians favored keeping the union. He boasts of voting against the Belavezha Accords (the declaration that the Soviet Union no longer existed). Owing to the political chaos in Moscow, the communists decided to placate the nationalistic fervor of the BNF. The Heads of State and Government became Shushkevich and Kebich respectively. Kebich sought to oust Shushkevich seeing his popular support and decided to charge him of corruption. The investigation was handed over to Lukashenko. He even brought up loyalist Opposition political parties to contest and grab votes against his own real oppostion. Little did Kebich know that he was digging his own grave in politics by giving space for Lukshenkov to meddle in between. And in the 1994 Presidential elections, Lukashenko contested against Kebich giving a major blow to the latter’s political aspirations and thereby becoming the First President of the Republic of Belarus.

Russia and Lukashenko

Belarus happens to be a country of geostrategic importance for Russia. Belarus separates the Russian mainland from the Kaliningrad exclave. Russia relies on Belarus for moving supplies since the Russian Navy’s Baltic Fleet is based there. Belarus has served as a buffer between Russia and NATO during their post-Cold War expansion. Lukashenko has close affinity towards Soviet-style institutions and practices. He pushed for a referendum for abandoning the country’s red and white flag and adopting one somewhat similar to what the Belarus Soviet socialist republic (BSSR) has used when it was a part of Soviet Union. He preferred a Soviet-style centralized economy that depended heavily on Russian subsidies.

On December 8, 1999, the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation signed the Union State Treaty. The Union of Belarus and Russia intends the economic integration, taxation, and the integration of defense and intelligence apparatus. It doesn’t mean a complete subordination of Belarus to Russia, but Lukashenko fears a loss of autonomy and territorial sovereignty and tries to maintain a balance.

Is Belarus moving towards the West?

Lukashenko’s recent acts of pardoning and releasing political prisoners can be understood as an act of rebooting relations with the West. According to Viasna, a Belarusian human rights group, he has pardoned more than 200 people jailed for participating in anti-government protests in 2020. This is aimed to persuade the West to relax sanctions, especially sanctions over potash by U.S, which is a major source of foreign currency for Belarus. US state authorities showed a readiness to ease measures against Belavia, an airline and national carrier, which allowed flights on Boeing aircraft in violation of restrictions issued right after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

For some, the release of prisoners appears to be a strategy employed by Lukashenko to figure out what could be the minimum price he needs to pay to restore dialogue with the West. Svetlana Tikanovskaya, Lukashenko’s main opponent in exile, alarms to be careful of the concessions. Moreover, the Union State continues in a stagnant state since Minsk and Moscow have different goals and ideas on integration. Lukashenko now maintains weariness over the Union State concept since it infringes the country’s sovereignty. Lukashenko even accused the Russian leaders of attempting to exploit the rates of fuel supplied by Russia to his country as leverage to merge Belarus into Russia. With Lukashenko being a Sovietophile more than a Russophile, the possibilities of aligning with the Western bloc seem inappropriate. Nevertheless, the recent act can only be considered as a part of revamping relations with elections approaching.

Talking about the elections, Kanopatskaya an opponent of Lukashenkov, has positioned herself as a strong supporter of political changes, democratic governance, and economic liberalization. Her emphasis on minimizing state control, boosting private industry, and advocating for human rights appeals to many Belarusians who are dissatisfied with Lukashenko’s authoritarian government. Her emphasis on deeper links with the West appeals to people seeking greater political freedom and economic opportunity. Kanopatskaya’s political experience and opposition stance position her as a credible alternative to Lukashenko. While Oleg Gaidukerich and Alexsandr Khizhyak may have different perspectives, they are typically regarded as more associated with the existing quo and Lukashenko’s rule. Sergei Syrankanov, with his pro-Soviet and pro-Russia agenda, is unlikely to provide a substantial threat to Lukashenko, as their platforms are nearly identical on many subjects. As a result, Kanopatskaya poses the most serious challenge to Lukashenko’s ongoing power, particularly among Belarus voters supporting a democratic transition. Lukashenko appears to be the strongest and could be anticipated as winning the presidency, grabbing an equal of 80% of the total votes as he did in the previous years. But Lukashenko apologizing to Zelensky over Russia-Ukraine is a little more of an extreme fantasizing. Despite all the standoffs that happened between Russia and Belarus, Belarus encouraged Russian annexation of Crimea as well as the ongoing war after a lot of disagreements and differences.

Belarus needs to play smart between both the blocs. Considering the West as an important partner is the need of the hour since it can open new vistas of opportunities and aces economic growth. The geostrategic importance of Belarus shouldn’t be downplayed. In this setting, striking a delicate balance between appeasing Russia, engaging the West, and responding to internal political reform desires will be critical. Belarus must not only operate as a geopolitical buffer but also ensure that its strategic relevance results in practical advantages for its people.

Ardra Unni
Ardra Unni
Second year MA Political Science Student in Pondicherry University, India