The situation in Venezuela, which has remained a focal point of regional and international concern for years, has reached yet another crossroads. As Nicolás Maduro begins his third consecutive term as president following the controversial election in July 2024, the country stands at a precipice. The lack of transparency, widespread accusations of electoral fraud, and the grim economic and humanitarian conditions have spurred a global debate on how best to respond to the Maduro regime. The political, economic, and social repercussions of his continued hold on power are not confined to Venezuela alone, but extend throughout Latin America, shaping the region’s political dynamics, economic stability, and international relations, especially with US.
Venezuela’s path to the current political crisis can be traced back to the presidency of Hugo Chávez, who came to power in 1999 after a populist campaign that capitalised on widespread dissatisfaction with the existing political elite. Chávez, a former military officer, led a revolution that promised to uplift the country’s poor through his “Bolivarian Revolution”, a socialist agenda aimed at redistributing wealth and empowering the disenfranchised. His government nationalised key sectors of the economy, including oil, and implemented social welfare programmes that brought much-needed resources to the country’s most vulnerable populations.
While Chávez’s tenure was marked by significant social improvements, particularly in health and education, his policies also created deep structural issues in the Venezuelan economy. Overreliance on oil exports, high levels of government spending, and widespread corruption left the country vulnerable to global oil price fluctuations. Despite the economic challenges, Chávez remained popular due to his charismatic leadership and the support of the lower classes, whom he promised to defend from the traditional political elite.
Chávez’s death in 2013, after a long battle with cancer, paved the way for his handpicked successor, Nicolás Maduro, to take power. Maduro, a former bus driver and union leader, inherited a country beset by economic mismanagement, soaring inflation, and a deepening political divide. Despite initially positioning himself as a champion of Chávez’s legacy, Maduro’s presidency has been marked by widespread unrest, an increasingly authoritarian government, and an economic crisis that has driven millions of Venezuelans to flee the country.
The events leading to Maduro’s third-term inauguration are rooted in the highly contentious presidential election held in July 2024. Maduro’s victory, which was announced by the government-controlled electoral authorities, was met with immediate claims of fraud and irregularities. The National Electoral Council, filled with Maduro’s allies, declared him the winner hours after the polls closed, but failed to provide the detailed vote counts that have been standard practice in previous elections. Allegations of voter manipulation and the suppression of opposition voices led to widespread disbelief about the legitimacy of the election.
In response to the lack of transparency, the opposition, led by Edmundo González, collected vote tally sheets from 80% of the country’s electronic voting machines. These tally sheets showed that González had received more than twice the number of votes than Maduro, further fueling claims of electoral fraud. González, who had been living in exile in Spain after facing threats of arrest, vowed to return to Venezuela and take office in defiance of Maduro’s regime. Meanwhile, opposition leader MarÃa Corina Machado organised protests from hiding, calling for mass demonstrations against Maduro’s illegitimate rule.
The international community, including the US and several Latin American countries, quickly condemned the election results. The US-based Carter Center, which had been invited to observe the election, stated that the opposition’s tally sheets appeared to be legitimate, further undermining Maduro’s claim to victory. Despite the calls for a fair election and international scrutiny, Maduro proceeded with his inauguration, further solidifying his hold on power.
Maduro’s third term marks the continuation of policies that have failed to address the root causes of Venezuela’s ongoing crisis. While the government has implemented measures to alleviate food shortages and curb runaway inflation, the country remains in the grip of an economic disaster. Venezuelans continue to face hyperinflation, skyrocketing food prices, irregular fuel supplies, and a public education system in disarray. The average Venezuelan now survives on a minimum wage that is less than $2 per month, a stark contrast to the growing wealth of those close to Maduro’s inner circle.
The government’s centralised control over key sectors of the economy, particularly oil, has exacerbated Venezuela’s dependency on fluctuating global oil prices. Oil production has steadily declined under Maduro’s rule, in part due to mismanagement, corruption, and the impact of international sanctions. These sanctions, imposed by the US and other Western nations, have further isolated Venezuela from the global economy and restricted its ability to access credit and investment.
Meanwhile, the government’s response to protests and opposition movements has become increasingly repressive. Thousands of political prisoners are currently detained in Venezuela’s overcrowded prisons, and the government has used the military, police, and intelligence services to suppress dissent. The arrest of political leaders, including those from the opposition, and the harassment of activists have sent a clear message: any challenge to Maduro’s rule will not be tolerated.
While the social and economic crisis continues to worsen, the political crisis shows little sign of resolution. More than 7.7 million Venezuelans have fled the country in search of better living conditions, creating a refugee crisis that has impacted neighbouring countries, including Colombia, Brazil, and other Latin American states. The exodus of Venezuelans has strained regional resources and created significant political and social tensions, particularly as other countries grapple with their own internal challenges.
The ongoing crisis in Venezuela presents a significant challenge for both the US and Latin America. For the US, the election and Maduro’s continued rule offer an opportunity for foreign policy recalibration. During the presidency of Barack Obama, the US attempted a diplomatic rapprochement with Venezuela, but this was quickly abandoned when Maduro’s government failed to engage in meaningful political reform. The Trump administration, which came to power in 2017, took a harder stance, imposing a series of economic sanctions aimed at weakening Maduro’s regime and supporting the opposition.
The Biden administration initially sought to maintain a more diplomatic approach, but its policies were hampered by the Maduro government’s refusal to hold free and fair elections. The Biden administration’s decision to engage with Maduro over oil sanctions in 2022 further complicated US policy, as critics argued that concessions to the Venezuelan regime undermined US support for democratic movements in Latin America.
With the upcoming inauguration, President Donald Trump will face a significant decision: whether to continue the pressure on Venezuela or negotiate a deal with Maduro. Trump, along with figures like Senator Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, has advocated for bolstering the democratic opposition and increasing sanctions on Maduro’s government. The US must now decide whether to continue backing the opposition and pursuing economic sanctions or to explore a new diplomatic strategy.
In Latin America, the Maduro regime has become a source of division. While countries like Russia, China, and Iran have continued to support Maduro, most of the region has grown increasingly critical of his authoritarian rule. Neighbouring Colombia and Brazil, which once maintained diplomatic ties with Venezuela, have condemned the lack of transparency in the election and distanced themselves from Maduro’s government. The political isolation of Venezuela has only deepened since the 2024 election, with few international leaders willing to attend Maduro’s swearing-in ceremony.
The broader implications for Latin American foreign policy are clear: Venezuela’s crisis has prompted many countries in the region to reassess their relationships with the Maduro regime. In countries like Colombia and Brazil, the issue of Venezuelan migration has become a key political concern. The economic strain caused by the influx of refugees, combined with the geopolitical ramifications of Maduro’s continued rule, is reshaping the political landscape in Latin America.
Maduro’s third term represents a continuation of a political crisis that has torn Venezuela apart. The economic challenges, social unrest, and international condemnation are unlikely to abate in the short term, and the prospects for a peaceful resolution remain bleak. The US, along with Latin American countries, must decide whether to strengthen support for Venezuela’s democratic opposition or risk emboldening a regime that has shown no willingness to reform.
The situation in Venezuela underscores the broader dangers of democratic erosion, a phenomenon increasingly observed in various parts of the world. When democratic institutions such as electoral bodies, courts, and legislatures are co-opted by authoritarian leaders, the very essence of representative governance is undermined. This erosion often begins subtly, with small-scale manipulation of rules and norms, but can quickly spiral into full-blown autocracy, as seen under Maduro. The loss of transparent elections, the silencing of dissent, and the concentration of power in the executive dismantle the checks and balances that protect citizens’ rights and freedoms. Once democracy is dismantled, reversing the damage can take decades and often requires immense human and economic cost.
This pattern of democratic backsliding is not confined to Venezuela but poses a global threat. Democracies worldwide are vulnerable to the creeping normalisation of autocratic practices, often justified by leaders under the guise of maintaining order or national security. The Venezuelan example should serve as a cautionary tale to both Latin America and the global community. Vigilance is required to prevent such erosion from taking root elsewhere, as even stable democracies are not immune. International cooperation, transparency, and the active engagement of civil society are essential to safeguard democracy against these threats and to prevent the rise of regimes that erode freedoms while perpetuating inequality and suffering.
The future of Venezuela is uncertain, but one thing is clear: the struggle for democracy and human rights in the country is far from over. As the situation evolves, the international community must remain vigilant and responsive to the needs of the Venezuelan people, supporting their right to self-determination and democracy.
