International issues that are taking place recently, such as climate change, may have an impact on migration. Even though climate change is primarily concerned with the environment, this does not mean that humans and other organisms on Earth are not also affected by it. How is this issue related to migration?
The United Nations defines climate change as long-term alterations in temperature and weather patterns. Another consequence of global warming is the release of greenhouse gases, which endanger life on Earth by trapping the sun’s heat in the atmosphere and boosting temperatures. Global warming is caused by human activities throughout time, such as excessive use of fossil fuels and gasoline, illegal forest clearing and cutting, industrial pollution, and unmanaged disposal and plastic trash. Climate change’s influence is demonstrated by rising sea levels, harsher temperatures, more intense storms, increasing drought, species extinction, insufficient food, increased health risk, poverty, and relocation.
However, the Paris Agreement, as a legally enforceable international pact on climate change, aims to limit the rise in global average temperature and continue efforts to do so. This is a watershed moment in the international climate change process since it is the first time all nations have signed a formal agreement to battle climate change and adapt to its repercussions. Furthermore, support platforms such as UN Climate Change Conferences (COP) as a multilateral decision-making forum on climate change have become places for almost every nation in the world to come together and agree on ways to address the climate crisis by assisting vulnerable communities in adapting to the effects of climate change and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
Which regions in the world are most vulnerable to climate change? It is the Pacific Islands. How does it work?
In 2023, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres within the World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo reported in the Pacific Island Forum in Tonga that “the global average temperature and sea level rise is on unprecedented levels, it caused by the greenhouse effect which not only exposed the Pacific Islands only, but also across the world. It’s about a billion people who live in coastal areas threatened by the rising sea levels. This puts the Pacific Islands in grave danger.” by the UN Secretary, also, “climate change nowadays has become a global crisis and is challenging the lives of humanity. Either communities, economies, and ecosystems throughout the South-West Pacific region are significantly affected. As we can see that more coastal flooding, shoreline retreat, saltwater contamination of freshwater supplies and displacement of communities.” by the WMO Secretary. This means the global governance already takes action to further plan facing climate change, thus, the people attract the interest of people in the world to be more aware of climate change action in prevention.
Human migration refers to the population of people who are willing to relocate outside of their home country or country of birth in order to shift their residence across administrative borders. Climate change is one of the main causes causing communities to move and relocate, which may be a tough process if governments make inaccurate decision-making. Further investigation by the government and international communities will have an impact on the future of Pacific Island society.
Why do Pacific Island communities migrate?
Due to the current scenario, global governance, which comprises international organizations and non-governmental organizations, has already created early warning systems for areas that are at risk of confronting climate change. Not only need programs be developed to prevent, evacuate, and combat climate change, but also to prepare for the worst-case scenario of people being displaced from those areas by raising awareness of those people, through media press releases and collaborating with other international actors who are experts in environmental and migration issues. The fact that sea levels have quadrupled over the years, posing a threat to people who live in coastal areas, is regarded as a challenge that Pacific island societies must deal with. Several years later, it is predicted that such islands will be drawn and completely damaged by climate change.
Not only in the Pacific Islands, the condition of the state which is located in the near coastal area like Indonesia has similar challenges. The migration of people who are living in the close coastal area have to migrate due to climate change remains higher nowadays. It happens because of the lack of acknowledgement and information sharing from the local government to the society, it is also posed by lack of dialogue between states in terms of addressing the climate mitigation process. Even though the engagement between several factors such as the media, government and society is important to raising the awareness of climate change, regional cooperation and global governance have to provide solutions within conducting the dialogue between partners and shaping the policy recommendations.
The study case of Tuvalu, as one of the small islands in the Pacific Ocean that already showed the implications of climate change due to the dual threats of global warming and the subsequent melting of polar ice caps and glaciers. The further impact leads to food insecurity, affecting agriculture and aquaculture, and also leading to financial instability. Unfortunately, Tuvalu has a Climate and Migration Agreement with Australia, known as Falepili Union, which a landmark deal extends a lifeline to 280 Tuvaluans annually, granting them permanent residency in Australia.
Tuvalu as an example, could pursue other Pacific Islands states to imitate its action which was categorized as a state’s government action to prevent the territory from worst case conditions. Even though the government in each state does not have equal interest and intention to address their state condition to make a first move. However the action will bring advantages in the long term, thus the state could also invite the regional cooperation of the government to help address the climate change and migration issues.
Furthermore, food insecurity and financial instability as a consequence of climate change in Pacific Oceania encourage the local population to migrate to other parts of their native country. Nowadays, migration is driven not only by pressures, displacement, and persecution. Instead, society volunteers to seek a better future in different parts of their home country. In the case of Pacific Oceania, the push-pull hypothesis serves as the foundation. Because the framework explains more about the push and pull forces that influence people’s movement, the study may be comparable. Pacific Oceania will experience major migration several years later due to push factors such as climate change consequences.
How Mass Migration Will Occur?
Mass migration happens if the global governance and communities incorrectly take decisions for the long-term effects. If Tuvalu is already backed up by Australia for the migration agreement, then how about the other states located in the Pacific Oceans?
Many countries are located in Pacific Oceania; nevertheless, as sea levels rise dramatically, those countries will sink. Countries will automatically lose land and ocean territories if they do not meet the state characteristics outlined in Article 1 of the Montevideo Convention of 1933, which governs the rights and obligations of states. It stipulates that ‘the state as a person of international law should possess the following qualifications: (a) a permanent population; (b) a defined territory; (c) government; and (d) capacity to enter into the relations with the other states.’ , the territory in point b means that the state has to own its land area, its sea, and its airspace. Tuvalu and the rest of Pacific Oceania experience similar events. As a result, those minor countries will lose their sovereignty as a result of the state’s failure to be recognized under international law.
As a result, Pacific Oceania requires a backup plan, supported by worldwide groups and government institutions, to assist the locals that reside there. It is a prevention of mass migration, which will overwhelm the international situation, given that the international world is currently busy and complicated. This recommendation also avoids narrating the viewpoint of worldwide society about the narration of ‘migration is a problem’. If those goals are not met within a few years, a mass migration will occur as a result of the sinking of small Pacific islands.
According to push-pull model theory, the pull reasons driving migration in Pacific Oceania are better conditions for permanent residents in other large countries such as Australia, Indonesia, and many more. Another factor is that places outside of Pacific Oceania are incorporated into larger geographic areas, making the likelihood of sinking islands less likely. It means that other countries outside of Pacific Oceania still have a space where their societies can live. Only a few areas are located near the coast, therefore the impact of increasing sea levels is not traumatic. On the other side, the effects of climate change sinking islands in the Pacific Oceania may cause financial instability. Meanwhile, the financial status of other countries promises people a long life.
Policy Recommendations
With the emergence of ‘climate migration’, ‘environment displace people’, or any terms which define the elaboration of climate change and migration issues have already significantly increased. Indeed, global governance play a key role in shaping the policy to prevent the climate change consequences, including in Southeast Asia, where ASEAN still not prioritizing the climate change and migration issues compare to Pacific Islands. In Pacific Island regional organizations such as Pacific Islands Forum, the annual dialogue between partner countries already focusing on the climate change issues. Meanwhile, ASEAN still faced many challenges to address the issues and shape certain policies.
There are some recommendations policy to the country that risky for climate change and migration;
- Enhancing regional cooperation within the regional countries by inviting the issues of climate change and migration in the dialogue forum.
- Prioritize the vulnerable people living near coastal areas, preparing the land space for evacuation and mitigation process.
- Regulating the resources to avoid the competition in crisis conditions including clean water.
- Strengthening bilateral cooperation within countries in order to maintain relations, which might need financial or aid assistance.
- Engaging communities to the policy making process on a national level, also collaborating on climate change and migration issues due to the emergence of ‘climate migration’.
- Strictly monitoring the implementation of carbon tax, policies that regulate the production of GHG, and improving commitment to combat climate change also reduce GHG emissions.
Conclusion
According to the examination of the push-pull model of migration, there are various factors that influence the movement of Pacific Island civilization today. The most significant driving force is climate change, which makes Pacific islands more vulnerable to its consequences such as food insecurity, land sinking, financial instability, and loss of sovereignty. Nowadays, decision makers, such as international governance/institutions and communities, should evaluate policies that have an impact on the future plans of local societies in Pacific Islands. Because of the current challenge that Pacific societies face, external parties must provide aid. Despite the fact that prevention and early warning initiatives are already in place, the possibility of the worst-case scenario of increasing sea levels remains. The policy recommendations will help the society to be protected from the mass migration issues due to the climate change, by strengthening the regional cooperation between countries and regulating climate change and migration issues together.
