Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham declared victory over the Assad regime– calling it the start of a new era in Syria. Assad has fled Damascus. Last night after taking Syria’s fourth largest city–Daara. It almost sealed the future of Assad, as the fast march of the HTS was facing a little resistance on their way to the capital– Damascus [1]. The fighting hasn’t been intense from the start, as in just a span of a few days– the coalition force or Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, launched a surprise attack against the Syrian held grounds– taking Aleppo without any resistance; except some air strikes by the Russian fighter jets. The first resistance was shown in Hama, where the regime’s force kept ground for a while; however, it was short-lived. Regime force then retreated from their position and the opposition force took control over this strategic city. The push towards the regime started from Idlib when Iran and its proxy allies were engaged with fighting Israel. So is Russia, occupied in Ukraine. Iran, Russia and Turkey just met in the 22nd meeting of format, back in November. The meeting went on for two days, 11-12 November. The Turkish Ministry Of Foreign Affairs in their official page published a joint statement [2]. Before the meeting even passed a month, things were getting uncomfortable between the Turkey and Russia-Iran duo. As the former supports some factions of the opposition force, and the latter unequivocally supported the Assad regime from direct and indirect interference. To discuss the current situation, people are missing the previous initiatives– where diplomacy failed quite a few times. The last initiative known as the Astana Process, which happened back in November 11 to 12. And before a month had passed, the HTS took control over the capital. The war may have ended, ostensibly; nevertheless, the diplomatic failure brought and dragged this war to a catastrophic unrest. And one can’t say with confidence– about the hostility being totally ended. On the day of a new start for Syria, why the diplomatic format didn’t work before? What kind of diplomatic initiatives were taken before?
The first of its kind– Kofi Annan and the initiatives for the “Friends of The Syrian People”
Following the breakdown of the US-Russian alliance, the Kremlin directed its diplomatic efforts and resources toward forming a coalition of regional stakeholders via Syria peace negotiations in the capital of Kazakhstan, starting the Astana process in January 2017. Vladimir Putin undoubtedly won the diplomatic battle by bringing Iran and Turkey to the bargaining table, and the Kremlin worked hard to pique the interest of the main Arab nations in the new agreement.
The United States was also invited, but it was no longer thought that US involvement was essential to the accomplishment of Russia’s Syria strategy. In the short term, the Astana process’s tacit effects—a decrease in Syria’s overall levels of armed violence—became apparent [3]. But before the Astana Process, there was an attempt to build a consensus about the turmoil in Syria.
Resolution 1973 was passed by the UN Security Council, which was sufficiently united to “protect the civilians” of Libya by all means necessary. Nevertheless, when China and Russia started to veto statements that were critical of the Syrian regime, the council became split and divided on the subject. Russia exercised its veto twice in 2011 and 2012, preventing the council from condemning the Syrian government’s ongoing atrocities against its own citizens. And what happened in Libya, made the Obama administration quite skeptical to use Military this time. This indeed showed a gap between the International community’s approach and the aspirations of the opposition rebels, with their ally Turkey and Saudi Arabia. “Friends of The Syrian People” found a dead-end. After China and Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on February 4, 2012, then-French President Nicolas Sarkozy formed the group to find a solution to the Syrian conflict. It met for the first time in Tunisia on February 24, 2012. The second summit was held in Istanbul, Turkey, on April 1st of the same year. In early July 2012, the Friends of Syria met for the third time in Paris. In December 2012, the fourth summit was held in Marrakesh [4]. The guarantor of Astana Process, Turkey, back then was one of the strongest vocalists for the Syrian People.
At first, Kofi Annan took the initiative– known as, “Action Group for Syria”. Kofi Annan made the announcement of the Geneva Communiqué in Geneva on June 30, 2012. However, the meeting that developed the proposal was not attended by either the opposition or the Syrian regime. The concept of “power sharing,” which Annan, the UN secretary general at the time, said had been extremely successful in Kenya, was incorporated into the communiqué. Any political solution must be approved by both sides, who have “mutual vetoes,” according to the Geneva Communiqué. In this case, the parties are the Syrian government and the opposition. In addition, it said that a “transitional governing body with full authorities” should be used to carry out the power transfer. He finally proposed a six-point plan for Syria.
Initially the Assad regime accepted Kofi Annan’s proposal. Members of the Syrian opposition, which is not unified under a single organization, have expressed their willingness to embrace the idea provided the government fulfills its commitments, while others have dismissed it as not going far enough [5]. In the second summit of the “Friends of The Syrian People”, foreign ministers from over 70 Arab and Western nations have attempted to put further pressure on Syria. Many people who attended the conference seemed doubtful that it would be implemented. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared: “We have to conclude that the regime is adding to its long list of broken promises.” Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister of Turkey, declared early in the conference that “the Syrian regime should not be allowed at any cost to manipulate this plan to gain time.” However, the Syrian government is certain that it has nothing to fear from the Istanbul summit because state media aired live portions of the opening remarks, referring to the gathering as the “enemies of Syria” meeting [6].
Ultimately, the Joint Special Envoy led by Kofi Annan turned out to be a failure. In August 2012, Kofi Annan, the Joint Special Envoy, made the decision to step down. Later, in an interview, he said the Security Council had not supported his work. Nearly every member of the Syrian government and opposition condemned Annan; the former were unhappy that he was not doing enough to carry out the plan, while the latter did not want it to be implemented at all.
Lakhdar Brahimi, an Algerian veteran diplomat who succeeded Annan, said he would continue to work toward implementing the Geneva Communiqué’s principles by calling a fresh meeting of the Syrian government and opposition in Geneva to begin direct talks to reach a consensus on the six-point plan. Unfortunately, Brahimi couldn’t go much further. Brahimi found that the two groups were very different from one another. Furthermore, despite the Geneva Communiqué being incorporated into the two Security Council resolutions 2042 and 2043, Russia did little to convince the Syrian government to embrace it. In May 2014, Brahimi quit because he felt helpless.
Astana Process- the trilateral efforts for Syrian Solution
A diplomatic effort to end the Syrian war, especially through peace talks and negotiations, is known as the Astana Process. Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana (now known as Nur-Sultan after a 2019 name change), hosted its launch in January 2017. After the city was renamed, the procedure is also occasionally called the Nur-Sultan Process. The Astana Process’s principal participants are: Russia, Iran and Turkey, known as the “Astana guarantors.” These three nations are the primary players promoting the peace process. Their important positions in the Syrian crisis are the reason for their involvement: President Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime has important supporters in Russia and Iran, while Turkey has backed some opposition parties and is worried about Kurdish autonomy. The goal of the first round of Astana talks was to create four so-called “de-escalation zones” in primarily opposition-held regions of the country, with Russia, Turkey, and Iran serving as guarantors. Then-United Nations Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura declared hopefully that Astana will “jumpstart the convening of the formal political negotiating process” and put an end to the military war in Syria [7].
However, the de-escalation process taken primarily turned out to be futile. It rather became a so-called favoritism. The armed opposition and 4.5 million Syrians, including hundreds of thousands of displaced civilians, are now trapped in a small area in north and northwest Syria along the Turkish borders after Syrian regime forces, backed by their Russian and Iranian allies, broke the agreement between 2018 and 2019 and took control of the first three zones and portions of the fourth. Apart from sporadic episodes of coercive diplomacy, Ankara did nothing to stop the regime’s instrumental attacks on its Syrian allies, content with the development of its military position in northwest Syria. Nonetheless, Syria was able to redraw division lines as a result of the regime’s and its allies’ subsequent military offensives and the ceasefires that were negotiated with Ankara. Whereas Ankara solely focused on its containment policy, seeking to mitigate further refugee flows into its territory while curbing the political and coercive power of the autonomous Kurdish-led administration in northeast Syria, which it deems an existential threat.
Fast forward to 2024, when the meeting was held for the 22nd time in Astana. The joint statement of the three guarantors was published from the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In addition to denouncing Israel’s actions in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, the summit stressed the importance of the Astana Process in resolving the Syrian issue and called on the international community to take humanitarian aid and peace measures. It reaffirmed Syria’s sovereignty, the necessity of a political process headed by Syrians, and the significance of stability and collaboration with Turkey. In addition to denouncing sanctions and terrorist support, the participants emphasized the humanitarian issue, highlighting the need for more relief and the return of immigrants. The next summit was scheduled for Russia, and the 23rd gathering was scheduled for Astana in 2025.
The Fall of Assad: What’s next?
In just 21 days, the 24 years of Assad rule has come to an end. Since the start of the civil war, the people of Syria have paid the worst. Before a stalemate back in the 2020, already tens of thousands were killed by both parties. Assad’s brutal crackdown on peaceful protestors and then foreign interference to build-up an army against The Syrian regime– threw the country in a long ravaging civil war; which ultimately pulverized Syria and uprooted its people. Refugee influx in Turkey and then in the West, insurgency of ISIL and Al-Nusra, Russian air strikes for Assad regime and Iran with its Lebanese and Iraqi militia meddled into the fighting. After Russia entered the war in 2015, the course of war turned into favor for the Assad regime. Turkey had their own headache to obliterate the Kurdish military, which was a national security concern for Turkey. They also backed a faction of the opposition force– namely, Syrian National Army, who fought against the YPG (Syrian faction of the PKK) and also the Assad regime to some extent. The Astana format was, as mentioned before, a trilateral stride to bring and uphold peace and stability to Syria. Even in the last moments, before the rebels entered Damascus— Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov wanted to execute UN Resolution 2254 [8]. The resolution advocated for a political road plan for resolving the war in Syria, urging elections, a truce, and humanitarian assistance.
The scenario changed in just short of 12 hours, as Assad fled the country and Abu Jolani claimed victory. Israel is breathing on Syria’s neck, mobilizing troops in Golan Heights (a long controversial land between Syria and Israel), Iran’s setback in the Middle East’s politics; so as the failure of Russian administration to save its strongest and loyalist ally in the Middle East– the geopolitical shift that took a drastic turn can drag Syria’s instability towards a new turbulence. Will the diplomatic ties be overlooked again? Or just a new path for negotiations or a diplomatic field just re-opened for Syria and the stakeholders? As for now the whole world’s watching, the HTS capturing the capital and people’s cheering on the street in support of the opposition force.
References:
References:
1.Syrian rebels appear to have entered Damascus as regime’s defenses collapse
3.The Astana Model: Methods and Ambitions of Russian Political Action Andrey Kortunov (Page-56)
4.Friends of Syria Group – Wikipedia.
5.Kofi Annan’s six-point plan for Syria | News | Al Jazeera
6.Istanbul summit tries to increase pressure on Syria – BBC News
