The revival of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline marks a significant milestone for regional connectivity and economic growth in South and Central Asia. In September, Taliban and Turkmenistan officials relaunched the TAPI project for the second time this year, without Indian and Pakistani representatives. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) spokesperson, Zabihullah Mujahid, recently announced the commencement of practical work on Afghanistan’s segment of the 1,821-kilometer pipeline, a project with the potential to transform the region’s energy landscape. With technical equipment mobilized and a workforce engaged, this initiative promises to deliver 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually while creating thousands of jobs and generating close to $1 billion in annual revenue for Afghanistan. Consequently, the TAPI pipeline is considered a ray of hope for Afghanistan’s economic revival and regional cooperation, alongside other forthcoming infrastructure projects like CASA-1000. Since the Taliban’s takeover of the country, the commencement of the TAPI project on Afghan soil is considered one of the major achievements of the Islamic Emirate.
The TAPI pipeline, initially proposed in 1997 during the Islamic Emirate’s previous rule, faced significant delays after the U.S. overthrew their government in 2001. Since returning to power three years ago, the Islamic Emirate has prioritized the project, marking a major step toward its realization. The Afghan section of the pipeline, spanning 816 kilometers, will traverse the provinces of Herat, Farah, Nimroz, Helmand, and Kandahar. The pipeline will originate from the Galkynysh gas field in Turkmenistan and has a capacity to transfer 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. As per the agreement with Turkmenistan, Afghanistan will purchase three billion cubic meters of gas over 30 years. Additionally, twelve pressure pumps will be installed along the pipeline, five of which will be located in Afghanistan, highlighting the project’s importance in meeting the country’s energy needs and promoting regional cooperation.
Therefore, the Afghanistan Industrialists’ Association views the completion of the TAPI project as a significant boost to the country’s economic growth and development. Abdul Jabbar Safi, the head of the association, emphasized the project’s importance, stating that it will generate thousands of job opportunities. He also highlighted that the southwest region of Afghanistan will transform into an economic hub, with the implementation of the TAPI project facilitating the construction of gas infrastructure, electricity networks, railways, and roads, further enhancing the country’s economic potential.
Subsequently, Central Asia and South Asia are home to a complex network of energy pipelines, many of which have been hindered by geopolitical tensions and realpolitik. Bilateral disputes and the interference of external forces have disrupted regional geo-economics, leaving resource-rich countries facing significant challenges. Despite these obstacles, the energy-deficient region is determined to overcome these constraints, with several trans-regional megaprojects in the works. Key projects include CASA-1000, TAPI, and the Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline (formerly the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline), as well as various rail and road network initiatives. Additionally, bilateral ventures such as the $2.5 billion Pakistan Steam Gas Pipeline project involving Russia and Pakistan are also underway, aimed at addressing the region’s energy needs.
In July 2024, Pakistan and Turkmenistan agreed to expedite the progress of TAPI gas pipeline project, reaffirming their commitment to continued collaboration. The agreement was made during a meeting between Pakistan’s Federal Minister for Petroleum, Dr. Musadik Malik, and Turkmenistan’s Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Rashid Meredov, who was on a two-day visit to Pakistan. As the TAPI project comes to fruition, it presents a significant opportunity for Pakistan. With the country facing mounting pressure to meet its domestic and industrial energy demands through costly LNG imports, Pakistan has a chance to reduce its reliance on expensive imports by pursuing the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Unfortunately, the trilateral $7.5 billion IPI pipeline project, which was once a promising solution, faltered when India withdrew, and Pakistan has yet to complete the 80 km pipeline connecting Gwadar to the Iranian border. Despite Tehran’s investment of over $2 billion and its efforts to bring the pipeline to Pakistan’s doorstep, the project has largely stagnated, buried in neglect.
Pakistan’s inability to move forward with the Iran gas pipeline has strained relations with Tehran, leading to the potential imposition of a penalty exceeding $18 billion for breaching the agreement. This situation has also created diplomatic tensions with Washington, as Islamabad failed to secure a waiver on penalties. As a result, Pakistan’s pressing energy needs remain unmet, and the prospects of fostering geo-economic ties with neighboring countries, particularly Iran and India, have been undermined. To address this dilemma, Pakistan must adopt a more tactful diplomatic approach and take a principled, sovereign stance in securing its energy future.
Moreover, the revival of the TAPI pipeline also holds significant potential for India’s energy security and economic growth. As a key part of India’s efforts to diversify its energy sources, the TAPI pipeline could facilitate the import of natural gas from Turkmenistan, enhancing India’s energy supply while reducing reliance on traditional sources. The project also aligns with India’s strategic interest in strengthening ties with Central Asia and improving regional connectivity. However, its successful implementation depends on overcoming geopolitical challenges, including security concerns in Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as diplomatic coordination with stakeholders involved in the project.
Furthermore, the growing interest of Russia in the TAPI pipeline is driven by both strategic and economic factors. Amid Western sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow is seeking to strengthen its ties with Ashgabat and shift its energy exports from Europe to South Asia, which could make its participation in TAPI crucial. This could not only boost Russia’s influence in the region but also integrate energy infrastructure across Central and South Asia. In 2023, Russia’s state-owned Gazprom revealed plans to reverse the gas flow in Soviet-era pipelines, such as the Central Asia–Center gas system, to carry Russian gas through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, ultimately linking to TAPI and delivering gas to the Indian Ocean. However, security concerns, particularly from militant groups in Afghanistan, pose significant challenges to the pipeline’s implementation.
In conclusion, while the TAPI pipeline marks a major advancement in regional energy cooperation, its success hinges on the stability and security of Afghanistan. The project’s long-term viability will rely on sustained collaboration among Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, as well as a collective commitment to overcoming the challenges that may arise. By ensuring a secure environment and fostering strong partnerships, the TAPI pipeline has the potential to become a cornerstone for economic development, energy security, and regional integration, benefiting all participating nations.
