President J. Donald Trump will serve as the 47th president of the United States of America, four years after reluctantly leaving office as the 45th, the first politician since Grover Cleveland in the late 1800s to lose re-election to the White House and later mount a successful run. At the time of taking charge of the White House. The uncertain future of Middle East is in the hands of Trump. As the region speculates on the possibility of Trump 2.0, his presidency could shape the future of Middle East.
Trump, a man known for his unorthodox approach to diplomacy and unabashed America-first doctrine, has a transactional worldview that can bring about major changes. He can offer a chance for the resolution of conflicts from Gaza to Tehran, but also risk further conflict. This is what drives us to fathom the impact of Trump’s return on Middle East’s future and why the region might brace itself for a rollercoaster ride.
Disruption as Strategy: Trump’s Legacy in Middle East
During Trump’s first term, the legacy he left behind was a mixed bag. For some, it healed their wounds, while for others, it rubbed salt in the wounds. He stirred the pot by recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, which deepened the pain for Palestine and the Muslim Ummah. However, the Abraham Accords were a breath of fresh air, offering a glimmer of hope for restoring peace in Middle East.
Trump foreign policy was known for his personalized diplomacy that further alienated Iran. His tenure witnessed the pulling out from the JCPOA Iran deal, and the taking out of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. He stayed tough on Iran throughout his Middle East policy. However, he kept Saudi Arabia and Israel at the top of his priorities. He rejected the traditional notion of multilateralism. Instead, he treated U.S. foreign policy as a quid pro quo exchange to gain short-term advantages and leave room for long-term miseries in the region.
A Wild Card for Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran
During Trump’s second presidency, Trump may bring a new set of challenges for the people of Middle East in dealing with Gaza and Lebanon. However, President Biden has fully supported Israel’s war on Gaza and pushed back in Lebanon, but he also stressed for further de-escalations to deepen the conflict. In contrast, Trump may take Israel’s side completely without trying to maintain a balance in Middle East. This will be like deepening the scars left by the Biden administration, pushing to the point where the scars never heal.
During Trump’s first presidency, he stood firm in his support of Israel. This time, it will likely be no different. His pro-Israeli stance could spur his Israeli counterpart, Benjamin Netanyahu, to push further into Gaza and Lebanon. This could escalate the conflict, and he might be less concerned about the suffering faced by Palestinians since the Hamas attack on October 7. A one-sided approach could lead to a very new and unpredictable future.
On Iran, Trump’s return might ramp up the pressure, as his anti-Iran rhetoric echoed throughout the world. He pulled the U.S. out of the JCPOA Iran nuclear deal, declaring he would never allow the murderous regime to achieve their nuclear objectives. He crippled Iran’s economy, but it did not stop Iran from backing Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis even more. This does not usher in a new dawn of peace. Instead, it makes the region less stable and more dangerous.
The Abraham Accords: Expansion or Erosion?
During his first term, the Abraham Accords were not only the biggest achievement but also a breath of fresh air for Arab-Israel ties. Under the banner of this agreement, Arab countries such as the UAE and Bahrain mended fences and patched things up. Saudi Arabia was biding its time to jump on the bandwagon. During his second term, Trump may likely set his sights on broadening the scope and making it more attainable, securing more deals. This was indeed a turning point in Arab and Israel history.
However, this has stirred up a sense of hesitancy in the Iranian regime. For Iran, it was a wake-up call to its geo-strategic and geo-political interests in Middle East. The possibility of further accords between the Arab nations and Israel may push Iran to double down on its involvement in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, where Iran has deep roots through its proxies. This situation could fan the flames of regional tensions and put Iran on edge.
There is a resounding outcry among Arabs against the atrocities committed by Israel, with the killing of more than 45,000 people sparking outrage across the Arab world. If Trump turns a deaf ear to Palestinian causes again, the agreements he previously brokered may lose their luster and credibility. This could fan the flames of animosity between Arab nations and Israel. Therefore, any steps taken within Middle East should not be based on a winner-takes-all mindset or short-sighted goals. Middle East could not bear the weight of further terrorism and full-scale war, as its people are crying out for peace.
The Houthi Question: Trump and Yemen’s Forgotten War
During Trump’s first presidency, he threw his weight behind Saudi Arabia, fully backing the war against the Iran-sponsored militia, the Houthis. However, during the Biden administration, following the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Biden’s approach was less pro-Saudi Arabia.
This shift put a strain on the U.S.-Saudi relationship, cooling the warmth that had previously existed. Biden’s stance pulled back from the unwavering support that Trump had shown, leaving Saudi Arabia to navigate a more complex diplomatic landscape.
Meanwhile, Israel is entrenched in a fierce battle with the Houthis. For Saudi Arabia, the Houthis are more of a nuisance they want to sweep away. But the lives of Palestinians weigh heavily on them, and they want to bring an end to the Arab suffering in Gaza as swiftly as possible. With Trump’s return, he may rally behind Israel’s war against the Iran-backed Houthis. This could set the region ablaze, plunging it into a new chapter of misery. The Houthis might up the ante and demonstrate their might in the Red Sea with stronger missiles and drones against the U.S. and its allies. Trump’s aversion to rebuilding efforts could also mean scant humanitarian aid, exacerbating Yemen’s already dire crisis.
America-First Redux: The Role of Russia and China
Trump, the president known for his unorthodox approach to diplomacy and unabashed America-first doctrine, often shied away from acting as a global enforcer. During his second term, if he sticks to this path, China and Russia might seize the opportunity to fill the void left by a Trump-oriented foreign policy. This could shift the balance of power and reshape the global landscape in ways that are hard to predict.
At a time when Russia is locked in conflict with Ukraine against the U.S. and its allies, it seizes the opportunity to make inroads in Middle East. Russia will stop at nothing to fill the gap, potentially strengthening its ties with Syria. China, meanwhile, will keep an eye on the situation, and if a semblance of stability is restored, it will spread the tentacles of its BRI, flexing its economic muscles and pursuing political objectives.
But this hands-off approach could fan the flames of other terrorist groups and rattle U.S. allies in Middle East, who lean heavily on U.S. aid and support. This could rock the boat and upset the apple cart, leading to increased instability and leaving allies in a lurch.
Unpredictability as Policy
Trump, a man known for his unpredictable nature, made some extraordinary deals during his first term, bringing Israel and the Arab world closer and pulling out of the JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran. During his second term, it’s anyone’s guess what he might do with Iran, especially with tensions between Iran and Israel at an all-time high. Will he egg Israel on to further attacks on Iran? Or will he broker another deal between Iran and Israel, akin to the Abraham Accords? The situation is still shrouded in uncertainty.
The phrase “Make America Great Again” and “No future wars” might sound promising, but they could muddy the waters and make his policy even more unclear. This could open the door for dominant Middle Eastn players like Iran and Israel to play their own cards. This unpredictability makes me wonder what his next move will be. Will he double down on his America-first approach, or will he pivot to a more balanced strategy? And only time will tell the tale.
In conclusion, there is a strong opinion that Trump dramatic maneuvers could turn the tide in the blink of an eye, potentially shifting the landscape from bad to worse. His unpredictability and sudden shifts could turn a new leaf for the region, even holding the promise to bridge the gap between Iran and Israel. During Trump’s second term, it is likely to usher in a new dawn in Middle East. A dawn that may bring either miseries or hopes for the people of Middle East who yearn for peace.
