Early risers in North Carolina in 2016 awoke to a chilly morning and a harsh new fact: petrol stations were running out, and panic was setting in. Instead of a cyclone or an embargo, it was simply a cyberattack on the Colonial Pipeline, the largest fuel pipeline in the US. Millions were left with no fuel which also caused significant economic losses and public fear. And for all its horror that there were zero soldiers, zero missiles, and no actual enemy — so what if the next war is not fought on the sea or land but in the mind, on screens, and in financial markets?
5th Generational Warfare (5GW) – a different kind of war than previously experienced, in past wars, there were identifiable armies on identifiable battlefields. They fought in trenches, jungles, or skies with guns, tanks, and bombs. On the other hand, 5GW lies in the shadows—through cyberattacks; disinformation campaigns; and economic manipulation to destabilize societies. We have seen this war going on — not just in our battlefields, but also in the digital world, financial systems, and even within the minds of its people. Whether states, rogue groups, or individuals, 5GW actors exploit hacking, fake news, and propaganda to penetrate nations from within. This was not a war to conquer land, but to divide trust, destabilize and create chaos.
Among the most notable instances of fifth-generation warfare took place during the 2016 presidential election in America. Social media websites Facebook and Twitter were manipulated by Russian operatives to disseminate disinformation, stoke political divisions, and undermine confidence in democratic systems. Tanks weren’t rolling over borders, planes weren’t buzzing through the air, but the impacts were grim. Taking this action was not merely an assault on a government — it was an assault on the public confidence in democracy. As such, the 2010 Stuxnet cyberattack against Iranian nuclear facilities demonstrated how strategic aims can be accomplished through a form of 5GW without recourse to traditional military action. The attack, widely attributed to the U.S. and Israel, set back Iran’s uranium enrichment program by disabling centrifuges. It was a stealth operation, but its reverberations were heard around the world.
This new warfare has even made non-state actors major players. Yet, terror networks such as ISIS have leveraged the web for recruitment, propaganda dissemination, and lone-wolf attacks globally. Their virtual presence enables them to target people thousands of miles away, without necessitating border crossing and national security apparatuses. Fifth-generation warfare is characterized by the distribution of power; this means there is no physical battlefield and even the enemy themselves cannot be seen.
This type of warfare has grave global implications. First of all, it questions the notion of having national sovereignty. 5GW is a scenario in which a single country-based hacker can cripple infrastructure in another country without crossing borders. A fully arranged fake news campaign can undermine a democracy half a world away. And of course, this interconnectedness also translates to zero safety for those isolating themselves; armies and border patrols barely have any effect.
The 5GW blurs the lines between war and peace which is another cause for concern. Aggression often includes cyber-attacks or disinformation campaigns but stops short of open war. This keeps the nations in a suspended state of perpetual warfare, not at peace, but never fully at war. As, for example, the persistent cyber hostilities of the United States against China and Russia show, fifth-generation warfare has become something that is waged on a day-to-day basis. Without clear declarations of war, the response couldn´t be decisive anymore and we are left in a sort of limbo.
In addition, the tools of conflict have been democratized by 5GW. Traditional wars require armies, weapons, and money; but the tools of fifth-generation warfare are cyber-attacks fake news, and propaganda—which are inexpensive and easily available. This allows even small nations, groups of actors, and individuals to provoke powerful states in ways that can be disruptive. It allows a single hacker, or a small group of hackers, to execute attacks with global repercussions, drastically lowering the barrier to entry than it has ever been in human history.
Among the most destructive characteristics of 5GW, is its psychological effect. It sows Discord and fear, by exploiting divisions within societies Exacerbated by disinformation campaigns, conspiracy theories breed distrust in science, government, and the media. Such erosion of trust undermines the glue that binds communities and society. The economic costs are staggering. Trillions of dollars are thought to be lost every year just due to cyberattacks. The Colonial Pipeline incident, for instance, was not only able to stop fuel supplies but led to millions paid in ransom and clean-up costs. These sorts of events, more or less certainly calculated and manipulated, only show how exposed current generations of the economy are to this type of warfare.
Dealing with the realities of fifth-generation warfare needs a separate treatment. One nation will only face these threats. We need international cooperation, to develop the rules and norms governing cyberspace – and to punish those who break them. While documents such as the Tallinn Manual, which discusses international laws applicable in cyber warfare, are a move in the right direction, they are not enough and must be complemented by robust enforcement mechanisms.
The other side of the coin is building resilience. Invest in cybersecurity in the face of cybercrime, governments, businesses, and individuals must promote their role at any cost worldwide according to wireless safety characteristics that people must build systems and tools for immediate detection and reaction. People can be made able to recognize and counter disinformation with public awareness campaigns and coordination can be improved between the public and private sector for a more robust response to cyberattacks. Because of such things, some tech companies spot cyber threats before any government bodies as well.
Last but not least, societies need to provide solutions at the psychological level of fifth-generation warfare. Building up a social capital level and trust is equally important as building, maintaining, and enhancing technological security. This means, advocating for political openness, combating for the representation of “our” narrative, as well as calling the citizens to engage in discourse. Deeply trusting is the world which means that a reconstruction and sustaining of confidence is a major factor in the security of states.
Fifth-generation warfare is redesigning the character of warfare, eroding conventional security paradigms capitalizing on the hyperlinking world, and appending new vulnerabilities to the list like the Colonial Pipeline attack, Russian disinformation warfare, ISIS’s warfare on social media. As these threats evolve more complex, the dilemma is not how to get rid of them but whether we are moving fast enough to contain them. It means that in this contemporary war without boundaries, global safety is attainable through collaboration, creativity, and endurance. It gets even more critical than this and the future of humanity will dictate how well we are going to be abreast in tackling this.
