As the world seeks to mitigate climate change by transitioning to renewable energy sources, geopolitical actors are entering a new resource race to secure access to critical minerals like lithium, cobalt and copper, crucial for green technologies like EV batteries, wind turbines and solar panels, as well as Artificial Intelligence. The International Energy Agency projects that global demand for lithium will see a forty-fold increase, while copper will increase by 40% by 2030, risking a global shortage as renewable technologies require a greater quantity and variety of these minerals. Due to the geographically unequal distribution of these resources, critical mineral supply is becoming embedded in an intricate web of transnational supply chains, global economic relations and geopolitical tensions between major powers like the United States (US), the European Union (EU) and China. In particular, the large and mostly unexploited mineral reserves of Latin America and Africa are becoming the key arenas for this geopolitical power play, with Latin America holding over 60% of global lithium and 40% of the world’s copper reserves, while Africa boasts one third of global supplies of critical minerals like cobalt and lithium.
‘It’s the minerals, stupid’
The geopolitical importance of these reserves are clearly reflected in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) trends. In the last two decades, over 10% of FDI in Latin America has been directed toward mining industries, with the US accounting for 8% and China for 14% of these investments. Chile has been the main recipient, reflecting its output of almost a quarter of the world’s total raw copper supply. Chinese investments are at the forefront, capturing over 70% of Chile’s raw lithium exports in 2024, and 70–80% of the global supply of refined copper and lithium. Moreover, the US, China and the EU have been expanding their investment in Brazil competing for its rare earth elements, as the second largest reserve globally, with FDI in rare earths surging to $700 million in recent years. Similarly, the US has formed a special partnership with Argentina, which together with Chile and Bolivia constitutes the ‘Lithium Triangle,’ containing over half of global lithium reserves. This reflects the US’ objective to reduce its strategic vulnerability on Chinese supply, brought to the fore after China imposed export restrictions on critical minerals in response to US tariffs in 2025.
New ties
As China controls 90% of the global supply of processed minerals, the US, the EU and associated countries are increasingly seeking to diversify its supply away from China by expanding control over the supply of raw critical minerals. In February 2026, 55 countries including Japan, India, South Korea, the EU and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)—the latter accounting for 70% of global cobalt production—under a summit organised by the US to discuss a trade bloc to strengthen coordinated mining and refinement for critical minerals, in order to undermine Chinese dominance, building on the 2022 Mineral Security Partnership. This followed upon US President Trump’s announcement of ‘Project Vault’ $12 billion investment in the creation of a national critical minerals reserve. In a similar vein, the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act prevents the bloc to rely on a single non-EU country for more than 65% of any critical mineral, and stipulates that 10% of the mining and 40% of the processing of the critical minerals consumed by the EU should take place within the Union.
A new scramble for Africa?
China also plays a dominant role in Africa, enjoying mining partnerships with 44 African countries. Moreover, Chinese investment grew from $75 million to a staggering $4.2 billion between 2003 and 2020, through large scale projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative, while Chinese EV manufacturers have established facilities in Morocco, with the aim of using its strategic geographic location to capture the European EV market. By contrast, Western mining investments in Africa have been lagging behind in the last 20 years due to environmental and social concerns over mining activities. This is starting to change, with the EU signing the Clean Trade and Investment Partnership with South Africa in 2025, aiming to improve EU access to critical minerals in exchange for EU investments to facilitate South Africa’s transition to green technologies. Similar agreements are under way with the DRC, Zambia and Namibia. Likewise, the US held a summit in February 2026 with countries like the DRC, Kenya and Zambia to establish a trade bloc for critical minerals, in line with other US initiatives in the region, such as its 2025 loan of $553 million to strengthen the Lobito Corridor, a key railroad connecting the mineral-rich region of Katanga in the DRC, Angola, and Zambian copper fields, to secure US access to critical minerals and reduce its reliance on Chinese-dominated supply chains. Meanwhile, critics warn that this geopolitical race might inaugurate a new era of resource colonialism, where raw materials are exported from developing countries to be refined into higher-value products in the Global North, profiting mainly developed countries and reinforcing global economic inequalities.
A global race
But China and the US are not the only actors in the minerals race. For example, the G20—including Argentina, the African Union, Mexico and Brazil—announced a Critical Minerals Framework in the beginning of 2026 under the leadership of South Africa, seeking to limit the outsourcing of control and incomes from national mineral resources to foreign powers, increasing transparency, national processing and refinement capacity, local ownership and enhanced sustainability regulation and global standards. Similarly, Saudi Arabia is cultivating ties with countries like the DRC and has pledged $10 billion investment in African mining as part of its Vision 2030 plan of economic diversification, while the United Arab Emirates have cultivated ties with Angola, Zambia and Zimbabwe to improve its access to lithium, cobalt and copper and expand its green energy sector. Likewise, India has sought mining agreements with various African countries, including the DRC, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Morocco, to secure Indian access to resources like cobalt and graphite.
Thus, it appears that the race for critical minerals has only just started. But it also serves as a reminder that even in an age of unprecedented technological, military and economic power, the world’s powers remain dependent on the constraints of nature.
