The released order of Afghanistan’s Supreme Leader concerning regulation of distribution and use of military weapons and equipment unleashed heated debates among different layers of the international community. Is this a step towards the systematic kind of control or is it a step towards greater Talibanization? The decree is timely, especially because Afghanistan is still a topic of global concern as far as security is concerned. Taliban took over after international forces were withdrawn and they were left behind with sophisticated military equipment. Now, with this directive, the Taliban seeks to directly manage these assets and their utilization under stated goals like ‘to avert the abuse’ of such assets and their utilization ‘for national defense’. This may seem at first glance as an effort to bring a semblance of order into what would otherwise be disarray. But is centralization equivalent to consolidation? History and evidence prove otherwise. This is specifically because when guns are in the hands of uncontrolled societies or in highly centralized power in politically unstable areas, they serve to deepen the internal conflict. The current case of Afghanistan is quite intriguing because this decree is a manifestation of Taliban’s overall plans of domination rather than tolerance or ensuring stability.
After the incumbent Taliban’s Supreme Leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, recently declared direct control over Afghanistan’s weapons and military equipment, this decision caused waves and concerns among regional political and security dynamics. Was this an effort to strengthen intra-regime control in a divided polity/additional layer of security or a result of increasing fears of Afghanistan turning into a ‘piracy paradise’ for the traffic of weapons? Nevertheless, this choice has important consequences for Afghanistan’s internal politics and for Pakistan’s uneasy security affairs as well. The decree explicitly consolidates control over military logistics and personnel under Akhundzada’s purview and eliminates Yaqoob’s Defense Ministry and Haqqani’s Interior Ministry’s discretion over its resources. This order requires all of the inventories starting with weapons then surveillance equipment be registered under the watch of a specified oversight office. Most importantly, it aims at stopping unauthorized distributions—a probable reaction to weapons leakage especially in the eastern region of Afghanistan.
Although this may appear as quite a noble aim as far as restricting the inflow of unauthorized weapons is concerned, this move also helps Akhundzada strengthen his hold over the Taliban as internal fissures continue to emerge. It, deploys and promotes one faction, while sidelining other ones; normally this process can centralize the regime under one known authority and either lessen or deepen the existing factional strife. This has important implication for militancy across the border and regional stability and that is why Pakistan is paying close attention to this development. On the other end of the spectrum, the decree may have laid the groundwork for enhanced stability in the security landscape of the region. If complied with, it could curb the sale of military hardware through setting up black markets, thus denying supply to emergence of factions operating within Afghanistan or bordering those regions. Nevertheless, it remains all reliant on transparency, a concept which the Taliban oddly seems to have no affinity for. Since the withdrawal of the United States, Afghanistan has had a stockpile of modern military equipment. Pentagon sources revealed that roughly $2 billion in new-age weaponry such as drones, rifles, and vehicles were left behind in 2021 when US army withdrew providing a scale of equipment accumulation that’s unheard for a non-state actor that evolved into a government body. For as it was suspected early on, these weapons have been found not only in cross-border smuggling but also among militant groups operating in the region.
Pakistan has borne the brunt of these dynamics. Terrorist organizations like the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) now known as the Fitna Al-Khawarij (FAK) have been using these advanced weapons, having increased their activities in the region across the Pak-Afghan border. The TTP’s militants armed with modern weapons had nearly 50% increase in recorded cross-border attacks in the year 2023. This measure by Akhundzada can be seen as a preemptive approach to managing this fallout and send a message to the especially frontline state of Pakistan that the Afghan-Taliban are committed to the stability of the region. The idea of focusing on the central management of military resources is not just a pragmatic question of troops behavior; it is a question of power too. Haqqani’s demotion decreases factional power allowing Akhundzada to establish himself within a government plagued with division. However, this is a very dangerous move. Discontentment could result in various actions such as refusal to obey orders, coup d’état hence, lacking control over its forces casts a developmental problem in exercising governance. All these developments are a blessing for Pakistan but there are two edged swords. These loopholes in the decree may reduce the supply of weapons to TTP but may undermine internal unity within the Taliban which poses new security risks as other factions may help themselves to destabilize the border lands. This centralization may be seen as paying the price for the US-Afghanistan debacle, as a move toward responsibility. But some doubts can still be registered mainly because the Taliban has not been very reliable in what they promise.
Lawmakers in Pakistan and other relevant countries must think through various ramifications of this decree. Although it seeks to rationalize and bring order to Afghanistan’s military capability, it does so by focusing on compliance – a challenging prospect for a regime that has not yet fully sold governance. To reduce potential adverse effects, regional players should call for clarity of the Taliban’s storages and stock outs, including independent monitors. It is for Pakistan to prevent its enemies from infiltrating its territory. Islamabad needs to continue to deal with the Taliban regime, despite increased centralization tending to make that power more responsive to rogue elements. Moreover, enhancing vigilance along the frontier and countering insurgent armed formations that actively use weapons will be paramount in containing the imminent threats. While this decree can be seen as a major step at least on the paper, it cannot be viewed as ultimate solution for security issue in the region. Its final contribution will only become clear through the extent of its implementation It remains to be seen whether the parts of it can begin to address the causes of instability. thus exerting control or continued proliferation of high-technology weapons. The decree on military weapons and equipment isn’t merely a security policy; it’s a microcosm of Afghanistan’s fraught position in the global order. Its success or failure will hinge on whether it serves as a tool for governance or weapons for domination.
