As the world calls for a shift to non-renewable sources of energy, China—the highest carbon-emitting country in the world, in agreement with the notion of a shift to green energy—continues to be the state with the highest number of investments in offshore carbon mining, coal imports, and coal-powered energy projects, while simultaneously steering the region of developing countries towards economic development and environmental sustainability.
Coal’s Dominance in CPEC’s Energy Mix
Within the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), nine of the twenty-one energy projects rely on coal, accounting for 42% of the energy portfolio. While hydropower and wind energy projects are part of the mix, a substantial portion of the capacity focuses on coal. Notable examples include the Thar coal mines and the Sahiwal coal plant. The combined output from these coal-powered projects is expected to reach 8,220 MW. According to Pakistan’s Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB), Thar coal projects contribute 13% of the total energy output. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) projects that coal-based energy generation will rise significantly, reaching 20% by 2025. Although coal helps meet Pakistan’s immediate energy demands, it raises environmental concerns due to the emissions and pollution it produces.
Source: PPIB
For years, Pakistan has leveraged climate disasters within its territory to strengthen its position in international forums, holding major greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters accountable for their carbon footprints, which contribute to catastrophes such as the 2022 floods, to which Pakistan remains highly vulnerable. Pakistan frequently emphasizes that it contributes less than 1% to global GHG emissions. It has also been a key proponent of initiatives like ‘Loss and Damage’ at COP27, which advocates for reparations to developing countries affected by the actions of developed nations. However, Pakistan’s increasing investment in coal-powered projects under the umbrella of CPEC; undermines its credibility in these forums, leaving its concerns open to criticism and weakening its position on climate advocacy.
Commitments to the Paris Agreement
Pakistan’s commitment to the Paris Agreement 2015, as mentioned in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), intends to reduce the country’s intended emissions in 2030 by 50%, with 15% reduction in local resources, and 35% contingent upon international funds. It established in this document that it intends to shift to 60% renewable energy and ban coal imports.
China’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UNFCCC outlines its plan to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. However, there is significant ambiguity regarding when exactly this peak will occur, how high emissions will rise before peaking, and the potential consequences. These uncertainties leave room for interpretation and could create loopholes in tracking and accountability.
Source: E3G
Environmental Criticism of CPEC’s Coal Dependency
In addition to uncertainties surrounding China’s commitment to achieving net-zero emissions, the Sahiwal coal project under CPEC has drawn criticism from environmentalists. According to a report by Pakistan’s Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB), imported coal accounts for 16% of energy generation. The Sahiwal project not only relies on fossil fuels for energy generation but also imports coal from Indonesia and South Africa, which is then transported via rail from Port Qasim in Sindh to Sahiwal in Punjab.
The CPEC coal power projects, such as the SSRL Thar Block-I, serve as both coal mines and power plants, utilizing the vast lignite reserves of the Thar Desert. However, this project has raised significant environmental concerns. Lignite combustion, a low-quality coal with high ash and sulfur content, contributes to severe air pollution. It is said to be the most health-harming type of coal. Additionally, the locals are faced with challenges such as contaminated water supplies and reduced access to clean drinking water, the project exacerbates water shortages, which disrupts the daily lives of local communities, and drives many to stage mass protests.
Contradictions in Renewable Goals
Pakistan’s growing interest in coal-powered projects is perceived as a deviation from its commitments under the Paris Agreement, particularly at a time when China has increased its solar and wind power generation while decreasing its reliance on coal by 7% from June 2023 to June 2024. In addition to this, China’s energy batteries became its primary renewable energy commodity exports, surpassing solar modules over the last four years. China’s renewable energy manufacturers benefit from low production costs, allowing them to offer prices that are as much as 200% lower than those of their Western competitors in major markets​. These are the benefits China can reap due to a well-integrated domestic supply chain.
While Pakistan has made strides in transitioning to green energy, significant challenges remain. The outdated national grid struggles to integrate renewable sources like wind and solar, creating bottlenecks during peak demand. Although supportive policies exist, implementation often falters due to resistance from power distribution companies concerned about revenue loss. Financial barriers persist, as upfront costs for solar and wind installations remain high, despite financing options from the State Bank.
Nevertheless, the substantial reliance on coal projects within the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) undermines Pakistan’s climate commitments, especially when both nations express interest in renewable energy. This contradiction weakens Pakistan’s position in advocating for climate reparations and could jeopardize its credibility on the global stage. As the urgency for sustainable solutions intensifies, Pakistan must address these discrepancies to align its energy strategy with its environmental goals.
