The USA represents less than 5% of the world’s population, yet it wields significant influence globally, from trade to regional politics, often driven by its own national interests. Since the Second World War, the USA has secured its position as the world’s hegemon, a status that was further solidified after the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. During and after the Cold War, the USA played a central role in world politics, a dominance that remained largely unchallenged until 2010.
However, since 2010, China has emerged as a major economic power, increasingly challenging the USA. This is not a traditional war involving weapons or arms races, as seen during the Cold War, but rather a war focused on trade and economic influence. In the language of International Relations, this is referred to as a “non-traditional war.” As a result, U.S. presidential elections, particularly after 2010, have gained significant global attention, especially in the Asian region, where this non-traditional conflict between the USA and China is most prominent. Asian countries closely analyze the potential policies of U.S. presidential candidates, knowing that no matter who the candidates are, they are likely to focus on containing China and slowing its rise.
The next USA presidential Election 2024 is likely to be held within weeks. Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris present starkly different visions for the future of U.S. domestic and foreign policy, and their stance on Asia will be a defining factor in shaping global dynamics. As the center of geopolitical tension and economic competition, Asia has become the battleground for what many call non-traditional warfare—rivalries fought through trade, technology, and influence rather than conventional military power. How the next U.S. president navigates this rapidly evolving landscape will have profound implications, not just for U.S.-China relations but for the entire region.
Trump vs. Harris: A Divergence in Global Approach
Donald Trump, the former president, is well-known for his populist rhetoric and aggressive foreign policy, particularly against China. During his first term, Trump’s administration waged a trade war with China, imposed sanctions on Chinese technology firms, and withdrew the U.S. from several international agreements, including the Paris Climate Accord. His “America First” agenda emphasized economic nationalism and military disengagement from costly overseas conflicts while keeping pressure on adversaries through sanctions and tariffs. If re-elected, Trump is expected to continue a confrontational stance toward China and Iran, reinforcing military ties with Asian allies like India and Japan.
Kamala Harris, on the other hand, represents a more diplomatic and multilateral approach. As Vice President, she supported the Biden administration’s efforts to repair alliances strained during the Trump era and to re-engage with international organizations. While Harris might pursue softer diplomacy, there is bipartisan agreement in the U.S. on the need to counter China’s rising influence. Harris is likely to focus more on human rights, climate change, and coalition-building while maintaining U.S. military and economic commitments in Asia.
Non-Traditional Warfare: The New Battlefield in Asia
Non-traditional warfare, which includes cyberattacks, economic sanctions, misinformation campaigns, and proxy conflicts, is becoming the dominant form of conflict in Asia. Unlike traditional warfare, where nations engage in direct military confrontation, non-traditional warfare targets critical infrastructure, financial systems, and public opinion through digital means.
Cyber Warfare
Asia is becoming a central battleground for cyber warfare, with China, Russia, North Korea, and the U.S. all developing offensive cyber capabilities. China has been accused of state-sponsored cyberattacks on U.S. infrastructure and institutions, while North Korea has been involved in cyberattacks to steal cryptocurrency and fund its regime. Future U.S. administrations, whether led by Trump or Harris, will likely ramp up cybersecurity efforts to counter these threats. This could include both defensive measures to protect American infrastructure and offensive strategies to target the digital capabilities of adversaries.
Economic Warfare
Economic warfare has emerged as one of the most potent tools in global power dynamics, with its influence felt deeply across Asia. Unlike traditional warfare, which involves military force, economic warfare uses financial pressure to disrupt a nation’s economy and diminish its influence. The U.S.-China rivalry is at the center of this battlefield, and whether Trump or Harris takes the helm of U.S. foreign policy, economic warfare will likely remain a critical strategy in the years to come.
During his first term, Donald Trump deployed tariffs and sanctions as economic weapons to pressure China into making concessions on trade, intellectual property theft, and market access. His administration’s aggressive stance led to a full-blown U.S.-China trade war that rattled global markets and disrupted supply chains. Trump’s policies created a “decoupling” between the U.S. and China, where both nations began reducing mutual dependency in critical industries like technology and manufacturing. If re-elected, Trump is expected to intensify this decoupling, pushing U.S. companies to relocate supply chains away from China and possibly to other Asian nations, including India and Vietnam.
While Kamala Harris may not pursue economic warfare as aggressively as Trump, she is likely to continue some of the key sanctions and trade restrictions on China. The U.S. has bipartisan agreement on the need to counter China’s technological and economic rise, particularly in areas like AI, telecommunications (5G), and semiconductors. Harris’s approach, however, may emphasize coalition-building, where the U.S. works with allies like the European Union, Japan, and India to pressure China through coordinated economic policies, rather than unilateral sanctions.
This multilateral approach could have far-reaching implications for Asia. Stronger labor standards, environmental regulations, and human rights protections in trade agreements may come to the forefront, affecting various industries across the region. While this could raise production costs in the short term, meeting these higher standards could ultimately enhance the competitiveness of products in Western markets.
Misinformation and Influence Operations
Misinformation and influence operations represent a crucial and insidious component of non-traditional warfare, reflecting a significant shift in how conflicts are conducted in the modern era. The weaponization of information has emerged as a powerful tool for state and non-state actors alike, aimed at destabilizing governments, manipulating public perception, and swaying electoral outcomes. These campaigns often leverage the rapid dissemination capabilities of social media platforms, allowing false narratives to spread quickly and widely, thus influencing large segments of the population.
One of the most notable examples of such operations occurred during the 2016 U.S. presidential election, where Russian interference was characterized by a sophisticated disinformation campaign that sought to sow discord among the electorate. This campaign not only targeted specific voter demographics but also aimed to undermine trust in democratic institutions, leading to significant political repercussions and a national scandal.
In response to the growing threat of misinformation, policymakers have begun to articulate their approaches. Kamala Harris, as Vice President, has emphasized the importance of transparency, accountability, and collaboration with tech companies to combat misinformation. Her administration advocates for stricter regulations on social media platforms, pushing for greater transparency in political advertising and improved methods for identifying and flagging false information. Harris also supports initiatives aimed at enhancing media literacy among citizens, recognizing that an informed electorate is essential for a healthy democracy.
Conversely, Donald Trump’s approach to misinformation has been characterized by his emphasis on freedom of speech and skepticism toward mainstream media narratives. During his presidency, he often dismissed claims of foreign interference and frequently referred to the media as “fake news.” While Trump has acknowledged the existence of misinformation, his policy proposals have generally leaned towards limiting regulations on social media companies, arguing that such regulations could infringe on free speech. Instead, his focus has been on empowering citizens to discern fact from fiction without imposing government oversight.
Similar tactics of misinformation have been employed in various regions across Asia, where state-sponsored narratives seek to discredit political opponents or frame protests as foreign-sponsored uprisings. The ability of misinformation to blur the lines between fact and fiction poses significant challenges to traditional governance and public trust, prompting a need for enhanced media literacy and critical thinking among the populace.
As these tactics continue to evolve, they raise pressing questions about the role of technology, the responsibilities of social media companies, and the effectiveness of countermeasures in safeguarding democratic processes and maintaining societal cohesion. The implications of misinformation and influence operations are profound, making it imperative for governments and citizens alike to be vigilant in identifying and combating these threats to democracy and stability. Ultimately, the divergent strategies of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump highlight the complexity of addressing misinformation in a polarized political landscape, underscoring the need for comprehensive solutions that balance regulation and individual freedoms.
As the U.S. election approaches, the choice between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris represents more than just a domestic decision—it will influence global geopolitics and the nature of non-traditional warfare in Asia. For countries like Bangladesh, the shifting dynamics of cyber warfare, economic sanctions, and misinformation campaigns pose both challenges and opportunities. Navigating this complex landscape will require careful diplomacy, strategic investments in cybersecurity, and a balanced approach to international relations.
