As the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit approaches in October 2024, China’s Prime Minister Li Qiang’s official visit to Pakistan takes on immense significance, not only for bilateral relations but also for regional geopolitics. Marking the first visit by a Chinese premier to Pakistan in 11 years, this moment underscores the deepening of the Pak-China partnership at a critical juncture for both nations. With major agreements on the horizon including the ML-I railway project and a possible address to Pakistan’s Parliament, this visit reflects the continued evolution of their strategic, economic, and geopolitical ties, particularly within the SCO framework.
This visit, the first since Premier Li Keqiang’s trip in 2013, arrives at a time when both Pakistan and China are navigating complex regional challenges. In 2013, Li Keqiang emphasized the importance of cooperation on power generation. Eleven years later, PM Li Qiang’s visit builds on this foundation, aiming to deepen cooperation not only in energy but also in infrastructure project. This historic context enhances the visit’s significance, showing how the relationship has matured into one centered on broader strategic interests.
PM Li’s scheduled visit from 14-16 October, right before Pakistan hosts the SCO Heads of Government meeting, is no coincidence. It strategically positions China and Pakistan to influence key discussions on regional integration, development, and security. The timing suggests a coordinated effort to align their bilateral goals with the SCO’s broader objectives, especially as China seeks to rally support for its regional initiatives.
The visit could further amplify Pakistan’s role within the SCO, not just as a participant but as a key facilitator of dialogue between major powers like China, Russia and India. Pakistan’s invitation to Indian PM Narendra Modi and Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal for the summit, despite ongoing tensions, reflects Islamabad’s delicate balancing act within the regional power dynamics. The visit by the Chinese premier will likely see both countries discussing how to leverage their cooperation to navigate this complex landscape.
Economic cooperation remains central to this visit, with significant agreements, such as the ML-I railway project, set to be signed. This ambitious infrastructure project, aimed at upgrading Pakistan’s rail network, is a vital component of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). By enhancing Pakistan’s connectivity with China and other regional partners, the ML-I project could revolutionize Pakistan’s trade and transport sectors, further embedding it into China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
For Pakistan, the visit signals a continued commitment by China to invest in Pakistan’s economic future. In the broader context of the SCO summit, these economic synergies could position Pakistan as a key player in regional trade and connectivity initiatives, reducing its dependence on Western economies and fostering deeper ties within Asia. Moreover, the security concerns particularly regarding Afghanistan, will undoubtedly be high on the agenda during this visit. Both China and Pakistan have vested interests in ensuring stability in Afghanistan to prevent the spillover of terrorism and extremism. This shared concern will likely see both nations coordinating their strategies ahead of the SCO summit, where regional security will be a focal point.
It would not be wrong to say that China and Pakistan, through their close cooperation, could push for stronger counterterrorism efforts within the SCO framework, reinforcing the organization’s role as a stabilizing force in the region. This collaboration would not only enhance security but also reflect the growing geopolitical significance of the SCO in addressing regional challenges. PM Li Qiang’s potential visit to Pakistan not only symbolizes the deepening political and diplomatic trust between the two nations but also a public reaffirmation of China’s support for Pakistan at a time when regional alignments are shifting, adding a layer of diplomatic symbolism to the visit.
The visit also holds significant geopolitical implications within the SCO, where China’s growing influence is increasingly shaping the organization’s agenda. Pak-China alignment within the SCO can shift the balance of power away from India. By reinforcing its partnership with Pakistan, China could recalibrate the dynamics within the SCO, potentially sidelining India’s influence on key issues.
For Pakistan, this geopolitical alignment with China allows it to navigate the complexities of South Asian politics more effectively, ensuring that its strategic interests are protected within the broader regional framework. The visit, therefore, holds the potential to not only enhance Pakistan’s role within the SCO but also to shift the power balance in its favor.
China’s engagement with Pakistan ahead of the SCO summit also has global ramifications. As the world moves towards a multipolar order, China’s close relationship with Pakistan reflects its broader strategy to counter Western influence and expand its presence in South and Central Asia. This visit is a signal of China’s commitment to using platforms like the SCO to project its power on the global stage.
For Pakistan, this visit enhances its standing as a strategic player in China’s regional and global ambitions. It allows Islamabad to maintain a degree of autonomy in its foreign policy, balancing its relations with major global powers like the U.S., Russia and the European Union, while reinforcing its alignment with China.
The Chinese PM’s visit to Pakistan, ahead of the SCO summit, is more than a diplomatic formality; it marks a pivotal moment in the evolving relationship between two longstanding allies. From the signing of significant economic agreements like the ML-I railway project to discussions on regional security and geopolitical strategy, this visit will set the stage for deeper cooperation between China and Pakistan.
As the SCO summit approaches, both nations stand poised to influence the future trajectory of the region, shaping not only the contours of regional cooperation but also the broader global power matrix. For Pakistan, this visit represents an opportunity to assert its importance on the world stage, leveraging its strategic partnership with China to secure its economic and security interests in an increasingly multipolar world.
