Russia’s Arctic Geopolitical Ambitions

It has been a strong ambition of multiple Soviet and Russian Leaders to gain control over the vast rich resources of the Arctic regions.

It has been a strong ambition of multiple Soviet and Russian Leaders to gain control over the vast rich resources of the Arctic regions. Vladimir Putin was among these leaders but also the one who turned this dream into reality. In 2007 a group of Russian divers placed a ceremonial flag below the North Pole and claimed an area contested by both The Dominion of Canada and The Kingdom of Denmark, at the moment this act didn’t hold much importance amongst the masses but in 2023 The Russian Federation got approval for the data behind much of its arctic ocean seabed claim. Although the approval was not the final word on the rights in the Arctic, it would grant The Russian Federation an additional 1.7 Million Sq.Km of Seabed.

The document “Strategy for Developing the Arctic Region of the The Russian Federation and Providing National Security for the Period Until 2035” estimates about 17.3 billion tonnes of oil, and 85.1 trillion cubic meters of gas stored under the arctic seabed.[i] Alexandra Land is one of The Russian Federation’s most important islands and is the nation’s northernmost military outpost. It is close to The Kingdom of Norway’s Svalbard Archipelago and Greenland. It is a significant island that supports the Russian Federation Military in protecting the Kola Peninsula. The Kola Peninsula holds the Northern Fleet Headquarters. The Northern Fleet’s headquarters is situated in Severomorsk, a Murmansk County settlement. The Russian Federation’s most powerful fleet is spread out across various bases in the Murmansk vicinity. The Northern Fleet originated in 1733 but was formed as an up-to-date structure in 1933. The Northern Fleet has several stations including Polyarnyy, Olenya Bay, Gadzhiyevo, Vidyayevo, Bolshaya Lopatka and Gremikha. The Kola Peninsula which is home to the Northern Fleet has facilities for submarines, surface ships, naval infantry and large arms stores. It also possesses strategically vital infrastructure such as the Olenya Air Force Base. In 2021, they were termed among the Russian Federation’s most prominent armed forces-administrative units similar to military districts. The Norwegian Joint Headquarters has a hotline with the Northern Fleet to avoid misunderstandings as well as unplanned escalation.

The Russian Federation has reopened more than 50 Soviet Military Bases in the Arctic which includes 13 Airbases, 10 Radar Stations and 20 Border Outposts. They increased the number of Nuclear weapon-engaged submarines in their fleet, new Hypersonic Missiles were engineered to stay clear of U.S. defenses. Some experts suggest that any other nation would require at least 10 years to catch up with the Russian Federation’s Military activity in the Arctic.[ii] The Russian Federation also has the largest fleet of icebreakers in the world and as of 2019 records, it includes 30 diesel-powered icebreakers, 4 nuclear-powered icebreakers and the only nuclear-powered cargo ship in the world.[iii] The Northern Sea route spans from the Bering Strait in the East to the Kara Gate in the West which is approximately 5600 km. Usually viewed as an international passageway by states, the Russian Federation views it as its internal waterway.

Geopolitical Ambitions and Challenges

Military tensions are escalating because the Russian Federation has strengthened military forces in the Arctic by reopening bases and installing advanced weapon systems. NATO members are concerned about security because of these changes, which could lead to a new arms race in the Arctic. Resource war is happening because the Arctic holds around 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30% of the world’s untapped natural gas. Competition over resource control is causing significant concern. Shipping routes have an important role in the security landscape because Arctic ice is melting and creating new sea lanes, such as the Northern Sea Route. The Russian Federation’s control over the sea lanes creates problems of dependency concerns and could create problems for international trade if the Russian Federation controlled those sea lanes. The Russian Federation has made a very expansive claim to territory in the Arctic, which, due to overlap with other countries such as Norway and Canada, could lead to legal disputes and, perhaps, even diplomatic battles. Environmental risks that may be introduced by the Russian Federation’s engagement in the Arctic include oil spills, disruption to fragile habitats, and significant blowback to world environmental leaders because the Arctic environment represents a unique system of great vulnerability that could be adversely affected by any risks created such as these by the Russian Federation.

 The Russian Federation is positioning itself in the Arctic and acting about global power by interfering with established power dynamics and possibly disrupting the balance of power that exists, often in joint alliances with other members of NATO and the United States. The unique nature and the way the Russian Federation is engaging the geography of the Arctic is likely to impact and disrupt what is already a vulnerable Indigenous community on the frontlines of climate change, which includes potential and anticipated disruption of fairness, livelihoods, and opportunities. The Arctic, a resource-rich stronghold, is becoming the next strategic landscape for jostling global powers. The rise of global powers such as the Russian Federation and China, and the presence of new actors such as Beijing, are strong indicators of the value of the Arctic as a place for global strategic competition. NATO has heightened its focus on the Arctic in response to Russia’s increasing military presence. This could lead to the further militarization of the Arctic as NATO and its member states like Norway, Canada, and the U.S. increase their defensive capabilities in the region. Joint military exercises, the establishment of Arctic military units, and the potential deployment of more surveillance and defence systems could emerge as NATO counters Russian expansion.

The Arctic may provide a new front in the Cold War, raising the possibility of military incidents or confrontation. As Arctic waters become more strategically important, the United States could deploy more naval and air force power toward the region, risking friction among NATO allies, if there are divisions over how to respond or strategize regarding the Arctic. The Russian invitation to China for participation in extracting Arctic natural resources forms a strategic partnership with mutually reinforcing positions for both countries. China’s “Polar Silk Road” initiative advances Russian objectives and provides China with access to increasingly important resources while shortening shipping routes. The Russia-China partnership in the Arctic creates an Eastern bloc that could challenge Western influence, resulting in a bifurcated Arctic direction, where the East controlled by China and Russia enjoys significant military and natural resource advantages while the West is trying to defend its interests. The role of China’s partnership with Russia will hinder Western efforts to economically isolate Russia and reestablish trust, and sanctions could be partially circumvented if China. Russia already controls a substantial portion of Europe’s energy now, and enhanced Russian control of the Arctic means more leverage over European energy strategies because of the availability of new oil and gas reserves. An enhanced Russian presence could result in Europe’s energy dependency becoming more pronounced, further complicating diplomatic relations and contributing to Europe’s weakened ability to call out or act against Russian actions in furtive kitchens in Ukraine. Increased competition for energy in the Arctic region may exacerbate a European energy transition timeline and potentially lead to denser renewables as a countermeasure vis-a-vis Russian Arctic energy control. Additionally, some existing global environmental movements are already responding to Russia’s expansion, and Russia has a history of oil spills and other environmental degradation in other parts of the world. The fragile ecosystems and Indigenous communities of the Arctic are already most affected by climate change. Therefore, a more aggressive economic prioritization of resources could lead to broader global activism in response to Arctic natural resource economic exploitation and increased diplomatic pressure.

Conclusion

The Arctic venture of the Russian Federation carries a lot of punch than primarily regional significance, President Vladimir Putin endeavours to extend The Russian Federation as a global superpower. The Russian Federation’s exploitation of massive Arctic reserves in combination with a military push to assert dominance is not only a matter of managing resources- it is also about displaying military power and strategic intention. The reopening of military installations and the roll-out of high-tech armaments show the Russian Federation’s aspiration to overshadow the important region, and in doing so provide itself with a strategic advantage over other countries. What the Russian Federation is doing has the capability of shifting power relations globally.

It is clear to me that Vladimir Putin’s main priority is to recover the Russian Federation’s former glory and secure a significant role in world affairs. In taking command of strategic Arctic Sea routes and territories with substantial resource reserves, the Russian Federation’s schemes are, in a way, more about securing than economic benefits. The Russian Federation wants to, with the Arctic, expand its sphere of geopolitical influence. Based on my understanding, the Russian Federation’s Arctic ambitions contribute to its broader objective of positioning the country as a premier global power state. With its actions in the Arctic, it is evident that President Putin intends to display that the era of the Russian Federation being a major global power is past and present.


[i] https://www.arabiaweather.com/en/content/the-frozen-treasures-of-the-arctic-what-is-russias-position.

[ii] https://www.csis.org/analysis/ice-curtain-russias-arctic-military-presence.

[iii] https://arctic-russia.ru/en/article/icebreakers-in-the-arctic-the-world-s-most-powerful-icebreaker-fleet/#:~:text=Russian%20icebreaker%20fleet%20is%20the%20largest%20in%20the%20world.

Yashas P Raju
Yashas P Raju
Research Scholar, Department of International Relations, Peace and Public Policy (IRP and PP), St. Joseph’s University, Bengaluru-560027, India.