The early elections in Iran resulted in Masoud Pezeshkian’s victory from the reformist camp. Masoud Pezeshkian has signaled his willingness to diplomatically engage the West on issues of critical importance to Iran. The Iranian nuclear deal is among the issues that are equally important to Iran and the West. The Iranian supreme leader, Seyyid Ali Khamenei, held a meeting with President Pezeshkian and his cabinet on Tuesday, 27th August. Upon the completion of the meeting, the supreme leader gave the cabinet the go-ahead to restart negotiations with the United States (U.S) and its allies on the nuclear deal. Khamenei insisted, according to a transcript on his official website. “There is no harm in that, but do not place your hopes in them.” the resumption of talks between the U.S. and Iran is critical for the future of the Middle East amidst the ongoing instability in the region. Iran has enriched its Uranium stockpile at an alarming rate of 60%. If Iran is successful in developing a nuclear weapon, it will ring the alarm bells in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi Crown Prince has signaled the intent to go down the path of nuclearization if Iran is allowed to develop a weapon. On the other hand, Israeli intentions to strike deep inside Iran and its nuclear facilities make the calculation even worse.
The Biden administration in 2022 had sought to restore the Iranian nuclear deal, which was reported to be concluded by the end of that summer. However, the negotiations failed due to the deep-seated suspicion and mistrust that characterizes U.S.-Iran relations. Iranians demanded that in order to continue negotiations, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) must be removed from the State Department’s list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO). The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) probe into the Iranian enrichment facilities should also be immediately called off. The U.S. position was that the Iranian demands were extraneous to revive the deal. The subsequent developments that took place in Iran, such as the death of Mahsa Amini, Iranian drone exports to Russia amid its invasion of Ukraine, and the alleged role of Iran in destabilizing the Middle East region through its proxies. Those developments created a deadlock for the talks to take place. The negotiation process between the U.S. and Iran stalled, but it did not fail completely.
The recent statement from Iran’s supreme leader to restart talks with the West on the issue of the nuclear deal hasn’t come out in a vacuum. The stakes are higher than they were ever before, Iranian economy has almost tanked due to crippling economic sanctions, soaring inflation, and discontent among Iranian youth. The election of a reformist candidate in Iran for the presidency is a sign that Iranians are eager for a change. Pezeshkian has appointed Jawad Zarif as vice president and Abbas Araghchi as his foreign minister. Jawad Zarif, as foreign minister, spearheaded the previously finalized nuclear agreement with P5+1, and Abbas Argachi was also a chief nuclear negotiator in that deal under President Rouhani 2013-2021. The appointment of seasoned diplomats which has experience in dealing with the West is a sign of rapprochement from the newly elected Iranian president.
The Iranian president has also expressed support for constructive dialogue with the West to “remove the oppressive sanctions” being imposed on Iran. In a July 12 Tehran Times op-ed, Pezeshkian wrote that “Iran’s defense doctrine does not include nuclear weapons” and called for the United States to “adjust its policy.” The Director General of IAEA has also revealed that Iran’s new President has signaled a potential for a renewed dialogue aimed at ensuring the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear activities. DG IAEA has also commented on Saudi Arabia’s nuclear ambitions and has affirmed the role of the IAEA in monitoring the kingdom’s future nuclear endeavors. Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman (MBS) made it clear in an interview with Fox News last year that if Iran is allowed to develop a nuclear weapon, the Kingdom would be obliged to have a weapon of its own to maintain deterrence. Saudi-Iran diplomatic normalization was a much-needed step for the strategic stability of the Middle East region. Having said this, the rivalry and competition for regional dominance between Saudi Arabia and Iran runs even deeper. In almost every conflict ongoing in the region, Saudis and Iranians are at loggerheads with each other. Saudis would never want Iran equipped with nuclear weapons, and if that happens, the former would take the route of developing nuclear weapons.
Talking of nuclearization in the Middle East, one cannot ignore the role of Israel and its covert nuclear weapon program. Although it has now become an open secret that Israel has nuclear weapons, they officially claim that “we won’t be the ones to introduce nuclear weapons into the region.” Israel was always against the idea of having a nuclear deal with Iran due to its own paranoia. Israel wields considerable influence in the U.S. policy-making circle and has used that to convince former U.S. President Donald Trump to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal in 2018. Israel wants a decisive decapitation strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, not a deal that could allow Iran to have breathing space and acquire enough resources to go for nuclear weapons in the future. For that purpose, Israel needs U.S. military assistance and go ahead, which up until now has not been granted because it could prove to be a precursor for a wider regional conflict. The successful conclusion of this deal has also got much to do with the upcoming presidential elections in the U.S. Former President Donald Trump has recently made those remarks in an interview with Fox News: “If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, “Israel is gone. It will be gone.” Trump also extended an olive branch to Iran, stating, “I am not looking to be enemies with Iran. I would love to get along with them, but they cannot have a nuclear weapon.
To have a meaningful dialogue on the Iranian nuclear deal, first, there must be a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip between Hamas and Israel. The Iranians should restrain their proxies in Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, and elsewhere from attacking the U.S. interests. The potential presidential candidate, Donald Trump, needs to understand the importance of having this deal as it is in the interest of the U.S. not to let Iran have a nuclear weapon. Iran can only be contained from acquiring those weapons by bringing the Iranian nuclear back to life. The revival of the Iranian nuclear deal is a much-needed step for the stability of the Middle East. The region is already ripped with conflicts, and adding nuclear weapons to the calculation makes it even worse. The success of this deal would be a groundbreaking step in the direction of nuclear non-proliferation. This deal could pave the way for renewed talks on the Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) free zone in the Middle East.
