Anura Kumara Dissanayake is Sri Lanka’s new president after winning Saturday’s presidential elections.
The poll was high stakes, the first chance for Sri Lankans to vote since a shortage of foreign currency and runaway inflation saw the country collapse into economic turmoil more than two years ago. The subsequent shortage of food and fuel led to mass protests that saw the storming of the presidential palace and the fall of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
Despite a moderate economic recovery helped by a $2.9 billion bailout by the International Monetary Fund, voters overwhelmingly rejected establishment candidates. Bailout architect and now former President Ranil Wickremesinghe won only 17 per cent of the vote while the Rajapaksa family candidate – Namal Rajapaksa – got a lowly 2.5 per cent.
Instead, voters put their faith in Dissanayake, a left-leaning politician and leader of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (or JVP) party, which headed the National People’s Power coalition going into Saturday’s historic election. Dissanayake won 42 per cent of the vote, while his closest rival – opposition leader Sajith Premadasa – got 33 per cent.
Dissanayake is an outsider to Sri Lankan politics, becoming popular for his leadership during the protest movement in 2022 and building up the JVP into a considerable political force. Voters were also attracted to his strong stance on ending nepotism and corruption and renegotiating the IMF deal to ensure the economy works for all Sri Lankans. This saw him become the front runner and subsequent winner of Saturday’s election.
The new president is not without controversy. The JVP led two Marxist insurrections against the Sri Lankan government in the 1970’s and 80’s that saw a wave of extrajudicial killings and political assassinations. The subsequent government crackdown led to the killing of an estimated 60,000 people, including many JVP leaders, and remains a dark point in Sri Lanka’s history.
Dissanayake has moved to distance himself from his party’s violent past, publicly apologising for the violence and leading the JVP from a position of insurrection to support for electoral democracy. This gave the party credibility, which helped sweep Dissanayake into power.
Thankfully, the old guard appear to have accepted the country’s seismic political shift. Prime Minister Dinesh Gunewardena quickly resigned – leading the way for cabinet to be dissolved – while Wickremesinghe congratulated Dissanayake and entrusted “the care of the beloved child that is Sri Lanka” to the new president. This allowed Dissanayake to be quickly sworn in as the 9th president on Sri Lanka on Monday.
But the election of a new president is no guarantee of success. Dissanayake appears to recognise this, using his inaugural address to tell Sri Lankans that he “is no magician” and that “there are things I know and don’t know”.
The challenges facing Dissanayake are formidable.
Despite the IMF bailout and a moderate recovery, the Sri Lankan economy is still in a delicate position. While the World Bank has projected growth of 2.2 per cent this year, many Sri Lankans have not seen the benefits, with the country still experiencing high poverty levels, inequality, and many face food insecurity.
The new president has blamed the bailout and its austerity measures, pledging to renegotiate the deal while reducing income taxes that were doubled by Wickremesinghe, and cutting taxes on the sale of food and medicine. But there is trepidation among economists and investors, with Sri Lankan bonds falling sharply on Monday over fears of a dramatic change in economic policy.
Tackling nepotism and corruption in politics is another key problem facing Dissanayake, with the new president calling for “cleaner” politics and “different political culture”. But achieving this might be easier said than done.
Since independence in 1948, Sri Lanka has been governed by the United National Party or the Sri Lanka Freedom Party, and the Rajapaksa family have dominated the political scene for decades and remain powerful today. While Dissanayake has won the presidency, his party only has 3 seats in the parliament, meaning he will need to work with the old guard to implement his reforms.
The new president has already dissolved parliament and will hold fresh elections on 14 November in the hope of sweeping out established parties and using his broad support to win a significant number of seats. If successful, this would give Dissanayake a clear mandate with which to take to the IMF in any future negotiations.
The problem for Dissanayake is polling predicts a divided parliament if elections were held today, with the Samagi Jana Balawegaya-led opposition on track to win as many seats as the National People’s Power coalition.
Making matters worse, the United National Party announced this week that it seeks to form an alliance with all opposition parties for the upcoming election, seemingly aimed at thwarting any reforms by Dissanayake and the JVP. However, SJP leader Premadasa was quick to dispel any rumours of an alliance against the new president if elections are held.
Unless Dissanayake wins a significant number of seats in November, the parliament may prove to be a stubborn impediment to his election pledges. A successful opposition campaign would also fail to drive Sri Lanka’s powerful families out of politics, failing to end the nepotism and corruption that has plagued Sri Lankan politics for decades.
Dissanayake acknowledged this problem in his inauguration, saying “we don’t believe that a government, a single party or an individual would be able to resolve this deep crisis.” It is clear the new president is seeking to work with others, not against them.
Sri Lankans would welcome a leader happy to work across the political aisle. But they also voted for meaningful change – not more of the same – and that is something Dissanayake will need to deliver if he is to solve Sri Lanka’s problems and maintain broad popular support.
Sri Lanka desperately needs a fresh start, and voters hope Dissanayake can provide it. But whether the outsider can succeed is a great unknown that will be watched with great interest over the coming months.
