“Our enemy has realised that they are fighting guys from the future. Now, it is brilliant as it is infuriating. If you live like it’s the past and behave like it’s the past, then guys from the future find it very hard to see you” -Body of Lies (2008).
Prologue
The dialogue from the movie ‘Body of Lies’ perfectly encapsulates the reasons why Hezbollah was using Pager⸻a communication relic from a bygone era. In an age dominated by advanced technology that can pinpoint conversations from thousands of miles away, where hacking and eavesdropping are rampant, it is evident that stripping away the conveniences of modernity is perhaps the best blinding strategy to evade detection by an adversary. No wonder Hezbollah supremo Hassan Nasrallah had very recently warned his cadres against using mobile phones by stating, “Mobile phones are no ordinary agents; they are deadly agents capable of giving detailed and precise information.” For years, Hezbollah, a group well-versed in asymmetric warfare, understood this dynamic all too well. Opting for such an approach made perfect sense as the group stepped back, not into the shadows but into the past. In a world where cutting-edge technology translates into power, Hezbollah found power in using an age-old relic. It is an intriguing paradox, where sometimes the best way to beat the present is to borrow from the past.
A Rude Shock
However, they were in for a rude shock. In a violent turn of events on 17 September 2024, the handheld Pagers used by the Hezbollah operatives began exploding, resulting in 42 deaths and leaving more than 3500 injured. This attack, which has jolted Lebanon in general and Hezbollah in particular, underscores a covert jostling that is taking place in the Middle East, wherein one of the belligerents is relying on modern technology while the other is strategically using outdated techs to evade detection.
Two theories speculating the method employed in mounting this sensational attack are making rounds in the media circles. One is anchored around an unprecedented cyber-attack, wherein the hackers somehow succeeded in overheating the lithium batteries, resulting in an explosion. The other theory, which appears to be more credible, is the supply chain sabotage. Here, the pagers destined for use by Hezbollah were rigged with PETN (Pentaerythritol Tetranitrate).
For Hezbollah, this attack has now brought the vulnerabilities of these old-school devices to the fore. The group might face tactical difficulties and be compelled to switch to safer-cum-innovative alternatives. In addition, the severe injuries to its operatives might temporarily slow down its operational efficiency amidst the lurking Israeli threat. Most of these operatives are now hospitalised and will undergo treatment. There is a possibility that some of these operatives will resume back to serving Hezbollah. However, most of them will probably fail to serve in an operational role and switch to desk jobs, as they might not have access to their dominant hands. Hand and eye injury is the most common injury sustained in this attack.
Hezbollah certainly can replace losses; however, it doesn’t have endless human resources at its disposal. This is not primarily because it has to invest in training and spend finances for recruitment but because it draws its recruits from a very small section of the Shi’ite population in Lebanese society. Although there are other Shi’ite movements, principally the ‘Amal Movement’, whose cadres sympathise with Hezbollah, but they have certain ideological differences.
Another factor that can impede Hezbollah against Israel is the current state of the Lebanese economy. Soaring inflation, debt default and crumbling public services have pushed Lebanon to the brink of an economic disaster. Any escalation that might conflagrate the situation will result in a humanitarian catastrophe and worsen the state of Lebanon’s already beleaguered economy. Amidst such a situation, Hezbollah has shown a certain tendency to restrain conflict with Israel. The group, perhaps, is aware that it might struggle to muster the resources required to fight a full-blown war.
Israel’s Covert Adventures
Hezbollah has accused Israel⸺its arch-nemesis of orchestrating the highly coordinated strike. Israel has been tight-lipped and has not issued any official statement regarding the allegations. Nevertheless, upon carefully analysing the history of Israel’s targeted assassinations, it is evident that this attack had all the markings of a typical Israeli intelligence operation. This is not the first time Israel has conducted such a clinically targeted strike on its adversaries. Israel’s covert adventures can be traced as far back as 1972 when it launched an assassination campaign to avenge the killing of Israeli athletes during the Munich Olympics by the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO). One is reminded of how Mahmoud Hamshari, the PLO’s representative in Paris, was killed in his French apartment when Mossad operatives discreetly replaced the base of the phone and planted a bomb, which was then remotely denotated. To add to this long list is Yahya Ayyash, a skilled Hamas bombmaker who was tricked into accepting a call from his father on a Motorola Alpha cell phone. The phone was rigged with 50 grams of RDX, which was remotely detonated by the Shin Bet (Israel’s domestic intelligence). Targeted killings, wherein mobile phones and other such devices are employed, is an old tactic used by Israeli intelligence.
This strike is a further addition to the list of Israeli covert operations in the long-running shadow war between Israel and Iran’s proxies. In the past few months, Israel has eliminated four senior Hezbollah leaders—Ibrahim Aqil, Faud Shukr, Muhammad Nasser, and Taleb Abdullah—along with three key Hamas figures: Muhammad Deif, Ismail Haniyeh, and Saleh al-Arouri. Through this strike, Israel aims to humiliate its adversaries, demoralise their cadres and instil fear in the wider population, which has grown so pervasive that Lebanese civilians are now even scared to have phones in their hands. Through this attack, Israel is attempting to outmanoeuvre its rivals and is also trying to regain the lost reputation of its intelligence agencies, which was mutilated by Hamas on October 7. The Pager Strike is a clear-cut demonstration that Israeli clandestine agencies have not lost their fangs and are actively waging a war of retribution.
The Bigger Question
The question that needs to be raised is whether or not these attacks will change the dynamics of conflict on the ground. Can these attacks have a strategic significance for Israel, which will be crucial in determining the course of the conflict?
The Pager Strike is undoubtedly a sensational tactical event, but it might not have an apparent strategic effect. This is because capabilities do not make a strategy. Instead of deterring, it might provoke Hezbollah to escalate the conflict, which is evidenced by Hezbollah already launching rockets at Israel. It is also pertinent to note that Hezbollah’s military capabilities already surpass those of Hamas, Houthis and other such organisations and even exceed many other countries in the region. The range of its rockets and the quantity of its missiles have the potential to overwhelm Israel because Israel lacks strategic depth. An overwhelming volley of rockets can also saturate the Tamir missiles used in the Iron Dome.
This attack has not altered the military balance along the Israeli-Lebanese border, where Israel and Hezbollah have been engaged in an ongoing low-intensity conflict for the past eleven months. It can, however, be seen as an opening salvo to a prolonged confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah. For Israel to convert this attack into a strategic advantage on the ground, it will have to reinforce this attack with military manoeuvres along the Israeli-Lebanese border, where more than 100,000 civilians on both sides have been displaced. Although the Israeli government is under pressure from its citizens⸺ many of whom were evacuated from areas along the Lebanese border and are demanding a safe return to their homes⸺ Israel must exercise caution in opening a northern front. With Israel already locked in a conflict in Gaza, which is far from over, opening the northern front can further drag it into a long-drawn war, which has the potential to conflagrate into a broader regional conflict.
