Afghanistan’s Instability: A Nexus of Terrorism or a Complex Battleground?

Afghanistan, often seen through the lens of global security, has long been labeled as a source of terrorism in the region. While this narrative holds some truth, it's only part of the story.

Afghanistan, often seen through the lens of global security, has long been labeled as a source of terrorism in the region. While this narrative holds some truth, it’s only part of the story. For many Afghans, life is far more than insurgencies and conflict—it’s a daily struggle for survival amidst poverty, shattered dreams and lost opportunities. Beyond the headlines, Afghanistan is a country caught in the crossfire of history, geopolitics and extremist ideologies with consequences that ripple far beyond its borders.

Though Afghanistan has always been a challenging neighbor for Pakistan but Afghan Taliban’s return has only exacerbated the issues. The main point of contention between the two countries is Kabul’s harbouring of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which targets Chinese interests and threatens Pakistan’s stability. Despite diplomatic and military efforts, the Taliban have not acted against the TTP. The Taliban’s inaction is rooted in their ideological and historical ties with the TTP, including a tradition of protecting Pakhtuns fleeing the subcontinent during British rule.

As said earlier that Afghanistan’s chaos has not remained within its borders. Pakistan, a neighbor with deep historical ties to Afghanistan, has often found itself caught in the storm. The two nations share a porous border that militants and refugees alike have crossed for years. And while Pakistan has long been accused of harboring Afghan militants, the truth is far more complex. Recently, Pakistani authorities have cracked down on Afghan nationals involved in sabotage activities within Pakistan, a troubling new dimension to the cross-border terrorism problem.

Of late, a terrorist suicide bomber Rooh Ullah was arrested by security forces after entering Pakistan from Afghanistan. In his confessional statement, he admitted to had been trained at a seminary in Afghanistan with the sole purpose of carrying out a suicide attack in Pakistan.

In July 2024, security forces in Balochistan arrested an Afghan national involved in plotting attacks on military installations. Another Afghan insurgent commander was killed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa during a security operation, linked to terror activities aimed at destabilizing Pakistan.  In June 2024, Pakistani forces apprehended the Maulvi Faqir Muhammad’s Network in KP, who had planned to target military installations in Pakistan. These incidents underline the dangerous spillover effects of Afghanistan’s instability, which continues to burden Pakistan’s already fragile security situation.

But beyond these incidents, there is a shared history between the two nations. Pakistan has long hosted Afghan refugees and while there are tensions, there is also a recognition that Afghanistan’s instability affects everyone in the region. Ordinary Pakistanis living along the border, just like Afghans, bear the brunt of this ongoing conflict. They are the ones most impacted by violence, refugee flows, and the threats that come with militant activity.

Afghanistan’s neighbors Pakistan, Iran and the Central Asian states are constantly navigating the fallout from its instability. Pakistan faces the dual challenge of preventing cross-border terrorism and managing a large population of Afghan refugees. The reality is that Afghanistan’s internal problems do not stay confined; they spill into Pakistan in the form of drug trafficking, terrorism, and economic burdens. It’s not just about governments and militaries but the everyday lives of people living in these regions who are deeply affected by what happens on the other side of the border.

In Iran, the challenges are similar. Iran hosts a significant number of Afghan refugees and deals with the flow of drugs from Afghanistan. Both countries have their own interests in the region, but they also share a concern: that if Afghanistan spirals further into chaos, the consequences will not stop at their borders.

The situation in Afghanistan is not just a distant issue for policymakers. The growing strength of the TTP, now the largest terrorist group in Afghanistan, adds to the complexity. Supported by the Afghan Taliban, TTP continues to grow, launching more frequent and more devastating attacks in Pakistan. According to United Nations reports, the group now operates with around 6,000 fighters and their deadly footprint keeps expanding. Human lives including children, families and communities, remain at the center of these escalating attacks. As attacks on Pakistani military posts increase, like the Bisham bombing which claimed six lives, it’s important to remember that these acts of violence ripple far beyond the immediate damage, leaving a scar on the nation’s psyche.

Moreover, figures like Ahmad Massoud, leader of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, continue to warn that the rise of the Taliban has created fertile ground for extremism across South Asia. His warning is not just a political statement but a call to recognize the human cost of Afghanistan’s ongoing conflict.

The significance of Afghanistan’s instability does not stop with its neighbors. The 9/11 attacks are a stark reminder of how a distant conflict can have deadly consequences around the world. Today, there’s a fear that history could repeat itself if groups like TTP, Al-Qaeda (AQ) or ISKP are allowed to regain a foothold in Afghanistan. But even as the Taliban seeks international recognition, their ability to curb terrorism remains in question.

This is not just an Afghan issue. As the global community grapples with how to engage with the Taliban, they must consider not just security but also the deep socio-economic challenges that fuel extremism. Without jobs, education and a future, Afghan youth are vulnerable to the allure of militant groups offering power and purpose, however distorted that might be.

It needs to be understood that the fate of Afghanistan is not its own to bear. It is shared by its neighbors and, in many ways, by the global community. The cycle of violence and instability can only be broken by addressing the root causes of extremism, which lie as much in poverty and lack of opportunity as in ideology. The challenge is immense, but the cost of inaction is far greater—both for Afghanistan and for the world.

In the end, it’s the people, not just the governments or militants, who matter most. The ordinary Afghans who want peace, the Pakistanis who long for a secure border and the global citizens who understand that stability in Afghanistan is crucial for security everywhere. Their voices, too often drowned out by the noise of conflict, deserve to be heard in the conversation about Afghanistan’s future.

Shamsa Ishfaq
Shamsa Ishfaq
Shamsa Ishfaq is an Islamabad-based freelance journalist with an MPhil in International Relations. She has extensively contributed to national dailies in Pakistan, primarily focusing on Afghanistan and its relations with Pakistan.