On 15 September 2021, Australia, the UK, and the US joined forces to unveil AUKUS, a powerful security pact set to reshape their defense capabilities. It is mainly concerned with enhancing the military capabilities of Australia by arming it with nuclear power submarines and advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, hypersonic systems, quantum systems, and cyber systems. This enhancement will cover 4 phases which include training Australian personnel, transferring US submarines to Australia, and, down the line, building a new SSN- AUKUS submarine. The main types of nuclear submarines include SSNs (attack nuclear submarines), SSBNs (ballistic missile nuclear submarines) as well as SSGNs (guided missile nuclear submarines). SSBNs are considered the main strategic weapon platform for the launch of nuclear ballistic missiles for deterrence purposes, SSGNs can organize guided cruise missiles mainly used for land attacks and anti-ship roles. SSNs, however, are nuclear-powered vessels and while they may not necessarily have nuclear delivery systems on board they do have nuclear propulsion systems. They primarily aim to attack the enemy’s ships and submarines and are also known as hunter-killer submarines. AUKUS largely covers the sector of SSNs and plans to help Australia get up to eight SSNs within two or three decades.
ESCALATING NUCLEAR RISKS IN THE INDO-PACIFIC REGION
The current global threat to American hegemony is China’s increasing dominance as one of the world’s emerging superpowers. Washington is concerned about Beijing’s growing influence across important strategic areas such as the South China Sea, the Indian Ocean, and the Pacific Ocean. Hence the Indo-Pacific has become the focal point of rising competition between China and the US where both states are seeking to secure their positions at international and regional levels. The notion of a “free and open Indo-Pacific” propagated by the United States intends to offset Beijing’s influence. This objective has now been enhanced with the creation of AUKUS with strong support from the UK and Australia. It is considered a reaction to what is seen as encroachment by China.
This trilateral agreement is no less than having a Cold War mentality by relying mainly on China as its chief antagonist. On one hand, the pact enhances the monopoly of the United States in ruling global politics, on the other it destabilizes the South Asian security order which may trigger an arms race and nuclear proliferation. The war history of Europe to World War II and the Cold War underlines the position of naval forces as a key factor in the realization of large-scale wars. Thus, increasing naval cooperation and compatibility of the three countries, AUKUS targets to create an advantageous position and free space of maneuver in the context of the Indo-Pacific region as both believe that those nations who control the sea control the whole world.
STRATEGIC IMPACT OF AUKUS
Strengthened naval nuclear propulsions and the use and export of highly enriched uranium (HEU) submarine fuels are matters of concern that AUKUS has fostered. however, the potential for proliferation and strategic instability has been existing before the agreement. Russia has been supplying nuclear submarine technology to India for over 3 decades, thus providing nuclear technologies to a country that does not acknowledge the new non-proliferation treaties. The transfer of such technology is a source of strategic insecurity and makes other states adopt measures to tackle the security predicament. So AUKUS deal has triggered some jurisprudential standards including the nuclear nonproliferation treaty. As for today USA, Great Britain, and Australia stated that the deal is compliant with the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and the treaty of Raratonga (south Asian nuclear-free zone treaty). Contrary to provisions of the NPT that only allow the utilization of nuclear energy and materials for peaceful purposes Australia’s interpretation of provisions includes the use of nuclear energy in naval propulsion submarines that do not contain nuclear weapons. At the same time, the Rarotonga treaty retains the provisions. It allows nuclear provision in a vessel as long as it does not involve nuclear explosive devices.
China regards this security arrangement as illegal. It has pointed out in the IAEA, General Assembly, and Conference on Disarmament (CD) that AUKUS constitutes a threat to peace in the region and amplifies the risk of nuclear proliferation. This is contrary to the objective of the NPT. Thus, AUKUS members have continued to add more members to the alliance which may result in an arms race in the region. If the IAEA does not consider the SSNs under AUKUS as a military activity, then they may set a precedent for other non-NPT states to obtain similar technology by creating a loophole for nuclear proliferation.
CONCLUSION
To conclude, Southeast Asian countries have to comprehend the fact that AUKUS has come to stay in the geography and should understand that AUKUS strengthens the security guarantee of the United States and the United Kingdom to Australia, which has been threatened by China. Although having nuclear-powered Australian submarines is less problematic than having a nuclear-armed Australia, ASEAN could endeavor to engage the Australians to enhance the transparency of the Australian SSN program principally on how the country handles nuclear reactors and fuel in cooperation with the IAEA.
