While current events in the Middle East appear to show Iran as a rising major regional power, a closer look at the totality of the facts, indicates Iran has strategically and tactically overreached its position. By using its proxies to attack the United States and by supplying the Houthis with weapons to attack shipping in the straights of the Bab-el-Mandab, Iran has persuaded the United States to resume supplying Saudi Arabia with offensive weapons. The embargo of offensive arms to the Saudis was in response to the civilian casualties resulting from the Saudis attacking the Houthis during the Yemen conflict. With the Houthis now strangling trade, the United States is providing the Saudis with the weapons that can hurt the Houthis and deter the Houthis from attacking vessels transiting the straights. This will begin to test Iran’s ability to rearm the Houthis, and possibly end Iran’s influence there.
Besides the problems that Iran faces in Yemen, Iran faces serious internal dissent in northern Iran with its Azeri population. While the Azeri population in the northern part of Iran are Shia, they identify more with the nation state of Azerbaijan and not Iran. Azerbaijan is increasingly pushing to obtain the Zangezur corridor to unite the western part of Azerbaijan with the eastern part of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is closely allied with Türkiye. If Azerbaijan were to obtain the Zangezur corridor, this would allow Türkiye to place a strong military presence on the northern borders of Iran. Both leaders of the two countries have stated that Türkiye and Azerbaijan are one country, but two different states.
With some Azeris openly calling for unification with Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan supported by Türkiye, a serious internal issue will be magnified. The possible threat of a Turkish Army on Iran’s northern border must have Tehran concerned.
Internal Dissension Within Iran
Since the riots and political protests of 2019, which began over an increase of fuel from 50% to 200%, as many as 1,500 protesters were killed by the Islamic regime. These protests commanded wide support in Iran. To prevent coordination between various provinces joining in the protests, the regime took down the internet. The internet was down for 6 days.
Since the death of Mahsa Amini in September of 2022 there have been a series of civilian protests that have been nationwide. Amini was severely beaten by the Guidance Patrol for wearing her hijab improperly on September 13, 2022. Amini died 3 days after the beating. While the authorities claimed that she died of natural causes, the people of Iran did not believe them. These protests carried over into 2023 before dying down.
The inflation rate for Iran in 2023 was 44.4%. It has the lowest GDP of the Gulf oil powers. Roughly 22% of the young generation of Iranians are unemployed. For the past three years investors have been withdrawing their holdings from the Tehran Stock Exchange. According to the National Council of Resistance-Iran, some $275.5 billion left the Iranian stock exchange on April 14th, 2024. Some $3 billion in capital has fled Iran to safer overseas investments.
In 2024, protests broke out again. At least 280 political protests were held in Iran in the month of April 2024. The Islamic regime is wildly unpopular with most of the Iranian people.
Yet while the Islamic regime in Iran is unpopular, the mullahs have the support of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRG). The mullahs are not afraid to use physical violence to maintain their grip on power and have used the IRG against the Iranian people many times. Any chance of success in the downfall of the mullah’s regime would need the support of the Iranian Army, and a leader who the Iranian will follow.
Iran’s Setback in The Gulf Region
Iran has suffered several major setbacks on the international stage. Even after the killing of the top Hamas political leader by Israel, in Tehran, Iran has not attempted a serious act of retribution. Israel killed Hezbollah political leader Fouad Shukur in Beirut, Lebanon earlier that day. While Iran did launch over three hundred drones as a retaliation measure for its alleged bombing of their consulate in Damascus on July 31, 2024, several Middle East countries closed their air space a few hours before the strike began and assisted Israel by also shooting down the Iranian air assault. Only seven missiles broke through, and there was little or no damage. Iran did however manage to seriously injure a Palestinian child. Iran stands alone in the Gulf, and it is dangerous for a nation-state to stand alone.
Iran’s demographics are not bad but have a fertility rate almost two children born to Iranian women. More serious is Iran’s brain drain. It is estimated that 150,000 educated Iranians migrate every year, costing Iran’s economy over $150 billion annually.
The United States Must Not Interfere in Iranian Domestic Politics Again
Since World War 2, the United States has been interfering with domestic Iranian internal political development. Every time the United States has interfered, it has gone badly and created lasting resentments against the United States. The CIA led coup in 1953 that brought down an elected Iranian government was the most odious, and indirectly led to the taking of the United States Embassy in 1979, and the subsequent hostage crisis.
During the last political crisis in 1979, President Jimmy Carter refused to interfere with the political revolution that brought down the Shah. It was the right thing to do. It is because of President Carter’s forbearance, that when the mullah’s regime does fall, and all the ingredients for a rising of the Iranian people are present, the United States can offer a hand of friendship to Iran that will be accepted by the Iranian people.
NOTE: The author of this article lived in Iran from 1977 to 1979 and witnessed the 1979 revolution firsthand. In the author’s opinion, there are many similarities between the former regime under the Shah that was coming to an end, and the current regime in power now.
