Taiwan and China are more vulnerable than ever to a serious conflict – particularly after several key developments in the recent past. The major concern revolves around the status of Taiwan. China has repeatedly claimed the vast island to be part of its territory – given that it remained under the Qing dynasty between 1644 and 1895. To convince the government in Taipei for re-integration, Xi Jinping’s government has consistently used its diplomatic means. In the first and second quarters of 2024 alone, the Chinese officials held rounds of meetings with their Taiwanese counterparts. However, the ideological difference between Chinese communist leadership and Taiwan’s democratic government makes the chances of reunification grim.
Since their partition in 1949, the Chinese government have constantly called for the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland. To strengthen its stance on the island, China has repeatedly supported the ‘One China’ policy. However, the government in Taipei have opposing views on this policy; they are protesting for sovereignty. Many states accept the “One China” principle and recognize mainland China as the sole legitimate government, but the US has an ambiguous stance – it has official relations with China but at the same time provides military assistance to Taiwan to protect its sovereignty.
The role of the US is very central to the discussion, given its influence on Taiwan’s politics. For its geographical location and economic benefits, Taiwan is important for both Washington and Beijing. According to the most recent data of July 2024, the country is home to 90% of the world’s highly advanced semiconductors, manufactured by a top firm Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC), which is also a key supplier of major tech companies including Apple and Nvidia. The US itself is heavily dependent on TSMC because of the wider use of semiconductors in developing sophisticated technologies.
In addition, the Taiwan Strait has a strategic importance as it contributes to global trade. According to a 2023 report by the US Naval Institute, nearly half of the world’s container ships passed through the strait in 2022. Given so, a giant economy like China, which is on the path to becoming an economic hegemon, would never tolerate the foothold of its archrival the US right at its belly.
While some may argue that China’s invasion of Taiwan was forecasted decades ago but nothing has changed. However, the China we see today is not the same as it was – considering the state’s hardline policies towards Taipei. For the past four years, China has time and again carried out military exercises around Taiwan to pressure the government in Taipei.
In an April 2024 meeting held in Beijing with Ma Ying-jeou, the former president of Taiwan, Xi Jinping said that people living in the mainland and Taiwan were Chinese, adding that “there is no resentment that cannot be fixed, no issue that cannot be discussed, and no power that can detach us”.
Many analysts believe that this meeting aimed to endorse peaceful unification as a substitute for annexation. Yet, it also gives a strong message that China will invade Taiwan by force if necessary – given that Xi considers Taiwan a province of the mainland. More importantly, for a state like China, which is well known for its diplomacy and mediation efforts, but at the same time modernizing its nuclear arsenal and other military forces is not a good signal. This yields a clear message that Beijing might have to change its character and take a different trajectory to pursue its global ambitions.
Furthermore, China has a more aggressive outlook today and is seemingly not ready to tolerate any actions that may lead to Taiwan’s sovereignty. It can be understood by the fact that recently on 18th July Japan held a joint maritime drill with Taiwan in the South China Sea, the first of its kind since their tense relations in 1972. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian responded in solid words urging Japan to stick to the “One China” policy and refrain from providing any form of support to Taiwan’s pro-independence separatist forces.
Besides, with significant political and military backing from the United States (US), the situation becomes edgy. In June 2024, the US State Department approved the possible arms sale of approximately $360 million to Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) which aims to maintain Taiwan’s self-defense capability. In this way, Taiwan feels more confident in rejecting China’s claims over the island’s sovereignty and resisting foreign invasion. This is perhaps a valid reason to argue that any attack from across the strait will be met with a solid response from Taiwanese coast guards.
As the situation shapes, Bloomberg Economics has estimated that a war over Taiwan would cause a shock of $10 trillion to the global economy – an even greater blow than the Global Financial Crisis, Covid pandemic, and Ukraine war. It is because, in the broader context, it is a war between the major powers (US and China). The stacks are too high for both sides, hence giving up on Taiwan might not be on anyone’s list.
In addition, it is telling that, while Xi is pressurizing Taiwan, the civilians on the island are already preparing for disaster in fear of war with China. According to a survey conducted in January 2024, over 67% of Taiwan’s population recognize themselves as Taiwanese, 30% lie in between, while only 3% consider themselves as primarily Chinese. This is another reason why the prospects of Taipei agreeing with Beijing’s claims seem less, as the major chunk of the population is in favor of Taiwan’s independence. However, at any point today, if Beijing felt that possibilities for peaceful reunification were completely exhausted, we might see an incursion from the PLA forces. The clock is ticking and inadvertent war looms over the Taiwan Strait.
