In July of 2024, Bangladeshi university students protested against quotas on highly coveted civil service jobs, ultimately toppling Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year regime. These quotas, originally established in 1972 by former President Sheikh Mujibur Rahman (founding father of Bangladesh), reserved 30% of civil service jobs for veterans of the 1971 Independence War against Pakistan. Even though the job quota was not controversial at that time, over the years, the quota enabled political cronyism, favoring the ruling Awami League party.
The July 2024 anti-quota protest is the sequel to a similar protest in 2018, under former PM Hasina (daughter of Skeikh Mujibur Rahman). Facing an impending election, PM Hasina’s government scrapped the quota, putting an end to the violent 2018 student protests.
After Bangladesh’s High Court reintroduced the quota in June of 2024, protests reignited and soon turned violent. PM Hasina’s response to the protestors, calling them ‘razakar’ (a slur for those who sided with Pakistan in 1971) and terrorists, added more fuel to the protests. Curfew was imposed, along with a complete shutdown of the internet and communication. By August 4th, the government’s heavy-handed response contributed to over 300 deaths at the hands of the police, Bangladesh Border Guard, Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), and the army, who were given a ‘shoot on sight’ order. Pictures and videos of Abu Sayeed (a student protestor) killed at point blank, became the face of the protest. Violence during the curfew conducted by these armed forces did not even spare young children. Seeing the level of violence, the student protestors’ 9-point demand soon became a 1-point demand, calling for Hasina to step down.
As hundreds of thousands of students and average Bangladeshis marched to Dhaka on August 5th, aiming to surround Hasina’s official residence, she resigned and fled to India with her younger sister, abruptly ending her 15-year rule.
The July student-led protest is nothing short of a revolution that brings Bangladesh, the 8th most populous country, to a historical crossroads. The level of violence seen in Bangladesh and its historical significance is similar to the Tiananmen Square massacre. While the Tiananmen massacre is a taboo topic in China, Bangladeshi society has embraced the cause of the July Revolutionists. What the current Bangladeshi policymakers do will determine the result of the July revolution and Bangladesh’s democracy.
Current Security Problems in Bangladesh
Immediately upon Hasina’s resignation and flight, Waker-uz-Zaman, the Chief of Army Staff took charge and vowed to create an interim government. Naturally, there is a concern about Bangladesh falling into a military rule trap. Bangladesh (similar to Pakistan in the region) has its own history of military rule.
However, the events before and following Hasina’s resignation point to a lesser risk of military rule in Bangladesh. As the violence unfolded in July, political observers and civil society members called for Hasina to step aside and hand over power to the military (who will then form an interim government). The military’s willingness to take power was not there. Furthermore, hours after Hasina’s resignation, the military consulted with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Jamaat-e-Islam, and the Jatiya Party. Within the day, General Zaman, along with the heads of other military branches, and President Mohammed Shabuddin, met with the student leaders of the anti-quota protest and civil society members. Both of these events indicate the creation of an open dialogue with the relevant stakeholders to plan Bangladesh’s political future and a willingness to have an inclusive political process.
Apart from negligible concerns of military rule, other more pressing security concerns have emerged. Since August 6th, the Bangladeshi police have been on strike as a response to police casualties during the protest and being persecuted by the protestors. Consequently, maintaining peace and order on the streets is now a pressing challenge. The student protestors have taken up directing traffic in the streets and even guarding neighborhoods along with neighborhood residents at night to combat robberies. However, the clash between the police and protestors and the subsequent police strike implies an urgent need for reestablishing the public trust in the police. That is something that the interim government must address.
Violence against religious minorities is another security concern that gained media attention domestically and internationally. Rana Dasgupta, the general secretary of Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council stated that at least 97 houses and shops owned by religious minorities were attacked and looted on August 5th and 6th. As a response, student protestors have taken on protecting temples and churches. Vigilance on violence against religious minorities is a laudable course of action and corresponds with the main message of this student revolution, which is anti-discrimination. On the other hand, the level of violence and vandalism after the fall of Hasina’s regime is a reflection of the lack of authority and the absence of police. Vandals and criminals will take advantage of the lawlessness regardless of faith. Not to mention, some of the violence is politically motivated where both BNP and Awami League members’ residences and offices have been targeted. There are numerous false claims of violence against Hindus that are circulating in Indian media, some of which have been fact-checked since then. Alertness against such false claims is as important as reestablishing law and order and public trust in the police.
Announcement of Dr. Yunus to Lead the Interim Government
The announcement of Nobel laureate Dr. Mohammad Yunus to lead the interim government came after the student protestors’ demand. This key student demand was accepted by the President and the military generals to quickly form a civilian interim government.
The creator of Grameen Bank, Dr. Yunus, is a respected figure domestically and internationally. His appointment as the head of the interim government can have geopolitical and economic significance for Bangladesh’s future. Dr. Yunus’s background as an economist and the inventor of microcredit garnered him international accolades, which can benefit Bangladesh’s current shaky economy. Since mid-2022, the country has been undergoing dwindling foreign reserves, ultimately prompting the Hasina regime to seek bailouts from the IMF and the World Bank. Dr. Yunus’s professional background can improve international confidence in Bangladesh’s economy.
Recent interviews with Dr. Yunus give hints on his foreign policy stance. His vision for Bangladesh indicates fostering the creative energy of Bangladesh’s youth (a significant portion of the population). His vision calls for Bangladesh to go beyond balancing between regional powers (India and China) and leave its own mark on the global stage as a leader of climate change, combatting income inequality and poverty.
Dr. Yunus’s thinking indicates the willingness to work with a wider variety of international partners (including those in the West) that will foster Bangladesh’s self-sufficiency and agency. Such a vision can also align with Washington’s efforts to counterbalance China.
What lies Ahead
As the interim government takes charge in Bangladesh, under the guidance of Dr. Yunus, reestablishing law and order and restoring the public’s faith in the police and the government will be crucial to creating stability. The interim government must heed public calls for constitutional and election reforms through an inclusive and transparent political dialogue, both of which will set the stage for a free and fair election in the near future.
Last, but not least, bringing Sheikh Hasina to justice should be part of the agenda of the interim government. Hasina’s presence in India can create problems for future India-Bangladesh relations. Sheltering Hasina strengthens the ties between Hasina and India while reinforcing India’s biased image within Bangladesh as favoring the Awami League. Bringing Hasina to the International Criminal Court can create a sense of justice that Bangladesh’s society needs.
