If you are nostalgic for the old days of empire, call it the Spanish Sahara. But if ambitious development plans – likened by one locally elected official to a North African version of Dubai – are to factor in the needs and aspirations of the former Spanish territory’s population, then it is time for the ambiguity to end. The 40-year-long international stalemate over whether the Spanish Sahara (aka Western Sahara) is an autonomous region of Morocco or the future independent home of the Sahrawi people not only perpetuates regional instability but also undermines the benefits of current development plans accruing to the local population. The uncertainty has already led to thousands of casualties on all sides and families divided from each other and their ancestral homes.
In response to emerging facts on the ground and in belief that the status quo was no longer sustainable, in December 2020, the United States formally recognized Moroccan sovereignty over both the northern and southern zones of the region, Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra and Dakhle-Oued El Dahab, respectively. The decision by the Trump administration, during it waning days, ended decades of what was once termed “positive neutrality” by the U.S. on the matter. It also preempted any further U.S.-backed attempts to mediate a potential referendum on the territory’s future between the Moroccan government and the self-proclaimed Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) and its political arm, the Polisario Front, which controls a third of the former Spanish colonial territory.
While the U.S. move may not have ended the conflict (in fact, a 29-year old ceasefire was broken a month earlier), once solid international solidarity with the SADR is steadily eroding, replaced with increasing support of the Morocco autonomy plan for locally-administered governance. Despite SADR’s continued recognition by dozens of primarily non-aligned states, and only 3 countries formally recognizing Moroccan suzerainty in 2020, 31 countries now maintain consular facilities in either Dakhla or Laayoune, in a visible and tacit expression of support of the Kingdom’s position. In a further blow to the SADR, and one likely to fuel tensions in the near term, particularly amongst its benefactors, on July 30, 2024, France joined the growing list acknowledging the Moroccan claim, stating “[t]he present and future of Western Sahara fall within the framework of Moroccan sovereignty.” Spain, which has already backed the Moroccan autonomy proposal, may be next, with the UK close behind them.
As the diplomatic chessboard rearranges itself, massive infrastructure projects are moving apace, laying the foundations for a future vision that, even if it fails to eventually resemble Dubai, will radically transform the territory with potential impact on commerce and communication across sub-Saharan Africa. In 2028, one of the largest port projects in the world at over $1 billion is scheduled to be completed. The port and accompanying transportation investments will service not only exports of the region’s natural resources including from its rich fisheries and phosphate deposits, but will also provide a gateway to and access for landlocked sub-Saharan states to the Atlantic and markets beyond; a major reason that foreign consulates, including those of neighboring states, have sprouted up in recent years.
Alongside the Kingdom’s economic vision, institutions and practices of regional autonomy are already taking root with or without international consensus. Elected regional and communal councils have been established, in accordance with Morocco’s decentralization plans, and local citizens and civil society organizations are increasingly active in the creation of regional development and communal action plans. In sum, these should be good days for the local inhabitants of Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra and Dakhla-Oued El Dahab. Hitherto isolated, their home is now on the verge of making a major entrance on the regional and global stage, shedding a previous image of instability and backwardness.
Unfortunately, while some are benefiting from current developments and the increasing opportunities that come with them, many are not. At present, roughly 175,000 former residents of the territory reside in squalid refugee camps across the border in a state of limbo perpetuated by political competition and rivalry – a legacy of the region’s colonial past. It is about time for all parties to look to the future so all former inhabitants and their descendants of Spanish Sahara can reap the rewards of the region’s promising future. For its part, the United States has embarked on a course that it believes is the best option for the wellbeing of the entire population of the region. For the sake of continued peace and prosperity, hopefully, others will soon follow.
