On August 4, 2024, Germany and the Philippines agreed to finalize a defense cooperation agreement by the end of the year. This marked a significant development in the geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific region. This partnership is rooted in a shared commitment to upholding a rules-based international order, particularly in the face of increasing tensions in the South China Sea. Germany’s decision to engage more deeply with the Philippines, including through this defense cooperation arrangement, reflects both countries’ strategic interests and their response to China’s assertive territorial claims in the region.
The decision to finalize a defense cooperation arrangement between Germany and the Philippines is a direct response to the growing security threats posed by China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea. China’s claims over vast areas of the South China Sea, including those recognized as exclusive economic zones by the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia, have escalated tensions in the region. For the Philippines, strengthening its military capabilities has become a strategic imperative, particularly as it seeks to defend its territorial sovereignty and maintain a rules-based order in the contested waters. The commitment of $35 billion over the next decade for military modernization under the “Re-Horizon 3” plan underscores the Philippines’ determination to bolster its defense posture against emerging threats.
Germany’s role in this evolving security architecture is not incidental. As a key player in Europe, Germany has traditionally focused on economic diplomacy and normative foreign policy, emphasizing human rights and international law. However, the geopolitical shifts of recent years, particularly the increasing tensions in the Indo-Pacific, have prompted Germany to reassess its strategic priorities. By engaging in defense cooperation with the Philippines, Germany is not only expanding its influence in Southeast Asia but also aligning itself with the broader Western strategy of countering China’s growing influence in the region. This partnership is part of Germany’s efforts to maintain a rules-based order and ensure freedom of navigation, which are critical to both European and global security.
The impact of this defense cooperation on the regional security architecture is profound. The inclusion of Germany in the Philippines’ security framework, alongside traditional Western allies such as the United States, Australia, and Japan, signals a shift towards a more integrated approach to regional security. The planned joint military training, potential weapons sales, and enhanced security information sharing between Germany and the Philippines are likely to strengthen the Philippines’ military capabilities, thereby altering the strategic balance in the South China Sea. Moreover, this partnership could serve as a model for other European countries looking to engage more deeply in the Indo-Pacific region, further complicating China’s strategic calculations.
The deepening of defense ties between Germany and the Philippines also has significant implications for China’s strategic posture in the South China Sea. As Beijing continues to assert its claims in this contested region, the involvement of European powers like Germany in regional security matters is likely to be viewed with concern. China’s perception of this defense cooperation as a direct challenge to its regional ambitions could lead to a range of countermeasures.
China views the South China Sea as a core national interest and has aggressively asserted its claims over large portions of this maritime area, including regions recognized as exclusive economic zones by several Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines. Beijing’s strategy in the South China Sea has involved extensive land reclamation projects, militarization of artificial islands, and the establishment of military facilities aimed at reinforcing its claims and deterring external interference. The inclusion of Germany in the Philippines’ security framework is likely to be perceived by China as an attempt by Western powers to constrain its influence and undermine its strategic objectives in the region. This perception could prompt China to adopt a variety of countermeasures, including diplomatic protests, economic retaliation, and increased military activity.
Diplomatically, China might issue strong condemnations of the Germany-Philippines defense pact, accusing the two nations of interfering in its internal affairs and destabilizing the region. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Beijing could release statements denouncing the agreement and attempt to rally support from allies and regional partners to counter the perceived threat.
Economically, China might leverage its significant trade and investment influence to pressure the Philippines. This could involve altering trade agreements, delaying infrastructure projects, or imposing tariffs on Philippine goods. These measures would serve to express China’s dissatisfaction with the defense pact and pressure the Philippines to reconsider its stance. Militarily, China could enhance its presence in the South China Sea, potentially deploying more naval and air assets, increasing military exercises, or expanding operations in disputed areas. By showcasing its military strength, China aims to assert its dominance and signal its determination to both the Philippines and the international community.
China might also escalate its use of hybrid warfare strategies, involving gray-zone tactics that blur the line between peace and warfare. Specifically, China has increasingly utilized noncombatant maritime law enforcement vessels, such as coast guards, maritime police, and militia, instead of its naval forces to pursue its objectives in the South China Sea. This strategy allows China to present its actions as law enforcement, even as these vessels engage in aggressive and intimidating behavior. By relying on these noncombatant vessels, China avoids direct military confrontations while still applying significant pressure on its neighbors.
A recent example of this intimidation occurred on June 19, 2024, when the Philippines accused China’s coastguard of piracy in the South China Sea. In this violent confrontation, Chinese vessels rammed, punctured, and boarded Filipino boats. The Philippine military released photos showing a Chinese coastguard member wielding an axe at Filipino forces and images of damaged equipment on a Philippine navy boat. The incident resulted in injuries, including a Filipino sailor losing a thumb, and Chinese personnel also destroyed communication gear, confiscated mobile phones, and seized unopened cases containing rifles. The United States condemned China’s actions as threats to regional stability, while the Philippines demanded the return of their rifles and compensation for the damages.
In conclusion, the defense cooperation between Germany and the Philippines signifies a notable shift in the Indo-Pacific’s security dynamics. This partnership not only enhances the Philippines’ military capabilities but also reflects a broader, integrated approach to regional security involving key Western allies. China’s response to this development is likely to be multifaceted, including diplomatic protests, economic pressure, and increased military activity. Additionally, China may escalate its use of hybrid warfare strategies, employing gray-zone tactics to assert its claims in the South China Sea while avoiding direct military confrontation. This evolving situation underscores the heightened tensions and strategic complexities in the region, shaping future security dynamics and international relations.
