The stunning defeat of the RN has forced the French political landscape into a stalemate, as the front page of Le Parisien the day following the elections read: “France, ungovernable. Now, what do we do?”
There are three more or less evenly matched groups, non-close to the 280 seats needed for a majority. A coalition seems obvious right? Well not for France, which unlike fellow European countries Spain, Italy or Germany, views coalitions as toxic (Noted by the marquee absence of the word in Macrons letter to the people, published on Thursday). To answer why, we need to go back in time and examine the ideas of the most divisive figure in French history since Napoleon: Charles de Gaulle.
The Fifth Republic, founded in 1958, was the brainchild of General Charles de Gaulle with the intention, precisely, of breaking with the parliamentarism and governmental instability of the previous period, the Fourth Republic (1947-58). During a decade, France’s political power was in the Parliament, and the President of the Republic did not have the sweeping power it has now. Parties would form coalitions and then break them, and governments followed one another at a dizzying pace with twenty-four governments in 9 years.
With phrases like “The regime of the parties is disorder,” De Gaulle slowly ingrained in the public the idea of a” black legend” (such as the one made in Spain with the American conquest). The Fourth Republic became for many French people a regime of governmental instability and failure. This was also reinforced due to the temporally coincidence of two traumatic events in recent French history: The loss of Indochina and the war in Algeria. Forgotten or at least overlooked were the years of the post-war economic boom, the approval of the minimum wage or even the birth of the European Project. Nevertheless, De Gaulle campaigned for the 1958 Constitution by speaking of the “dark past.” In Gaullist propaganda films for the referendum, “an indistinguishable procession of politicians appeared on the steps of the Élysée Palace in the endless carousel of the Fourth Republic,” writes Julian Jackson in his bibliography De Gaulle (in my opinion, the most up to date and complete bibliography the general has been a part of). The idea that parliamentarism and coalitions were synonymous with decline, and that the presidentialism (with a strong leader at the helm) of the Fifth Republic was the guarantee of stability, took hold.
Going back to 2024, there are certain unavoidable factor that make a coalition exceedingly difficult, apart from the one explained before. Firstly, the political parties have too many grievances and too many red lines between them. The polarization and personal attacks between parties and candidates have systematically blown any bridges that were being made. Additionally, the deadlock would require Macron to become a deal broker he has never been, aspired to be, or shown any special talent as. Furthermore, the two-round presidential election system ends up polarizing all politics into two camps. Finally, the Fifth Republic itself, with a vertical political culture, where order, command, and concentration of powers at the top prevail; a culture that Macron has taken advantage of, to the absolute extreme; does not bode well for horizontal coalitions with a separation of powers and tasks.
Even with all these roadblocks, there is hope for a 2024 coalition. Historically in the third Republic, between 1870 and 1940, coalitions were common and relatively long lasting, from two to four years. Even in the present-day coalitions already exist, just between each ideological bloc. The New Popular Front encompasses from radical anticapitalism or communism to social democracy. The Macronist centre integrates Christian democrats with social democrats, and centre-left and centre-right parties.
The cordon sanitaire served as a good example of leaving egos and quarrels for the “greater good” and should serve as a blueprint for future negotiations. All the countries that have made coalitions common needed time to figure it out. Unfortunately for France, time is running out. Two weeks before the opening ceremony of the biggest sporting event in the world, the Olympics and the host country is in political chaos. The left, which won the most seats, has spent days arguing since the election on who would be the prime minister and basically achieved nothing. The far-right is seething at what it views as a” dishonest alliance “to stop them from gaining power and will block any government that includes the NPF. Macron has been away in Washington for the NATO summit and will stick to his idea published on his letter of a “solid majority” built by “republican political forces.” What that actually means is anybody’s guess, especially since Sylvain Maillard, from Macron’s Renaissance, said his party would press for a vote of no confidence if La France Insoumise (the major party in the NPF) was given power. If nobody can agree on a candidate, the president will pick one, jeopardizing even more his legacy and his future, maybe even forcing him to take a step back from domestic policies.
This week will be decisive as nobody wants the world to see France in political chaos when the Olympics starts. On Thursday, the National Assembly will sit for the first time since the election to elect a president of the lower house akin to Britain’s House of Commons speaker and the government officially resigns. This will be followed by the designation of parliamentary groups including a majority party and a minority opposition and the distribution of committee and other posts. This will be the first hurdle. Sports pun aside, these kind of events (Olympics, Eurocup etc…) have the power to unite a nation under the values it holds dear. If French politicians can look at their history and leave their political egos behind, in two weeks we will be talking about the amazing opening ceremony down the Siene, the tenacity of world athletes and what a marvellous host country France is, capable of uniting and agreeing after a divisive election. If they cannot leave the bitterness and polarization behind France risks welcoming the world’s best athletes with a political chaos not seen in decades.
