China views Israel’s activities in Turkmenistan, a country bordering Iran, as an attempt to bring the battlefield closer to Tehran. This has compelled Beijing to shift from an economic role to a more active security and intelligence role to protect its interests in Iran and Central Asia. Consequently, Chinese intelligence agencies are closely monitoring the strengthening of the Israeli diplomatic and intelligence presence (Mossad) in Ashgabat, the capital of Turkmenistan, given its geographical proximity to Iran, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran since early 2026. China’s apprehension stems from the potential opening of an Israeli embassy in Turkmenistan, directly planned by the Mossad, due to the sensitive strategic location of the embassy. Situated only 17-20 kilometers from the Iranian border, it would be the closest Israeli diplomatic mission to Iran. The opening of the Israeli embassy in Turkmenistan was announced by Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen, who inaugurated the permanent embassy building in Ashgabat, the capital of Turkmenistan, on Thursday, April 20, 2023. This move strengthens diplomatic relations that began in 1993, with the permanent embassy replacing a temporary office that had been operating since 2023. China views the Israeli embassy in Turkmenistan as part of a broader strategy to topple or severely weaken the Iranian regime, which poses a direct threat to China’s strategic interests in the Middle East and Central Asia. To this end, China is involved in intelligence efforts to help Iran track Mossad activities originating from Turkmen territory and to identify Mossad field agents, particularly after the deep Israeli strikes deep inside Tehran.
Chinese intelligence analysis of the reasons behind the opening of an Israeli embassy in Turkmenistan, directly planned by the Israeli Mossad, and its connection to the Iranian conflict and the shared Israeli-American desire to overthrow the Iranian regime is viewed by Chinese intelligence as a direct security threat to Iran. Beijing considers this Israeli embassy in Turkmenistan a forward base for the Mossad on Iran’s northern flank, facilitating infiltration, reconnaissance, and Israeli intelligence and military strikes within Iranian territory. This embassy also facilitates the escalation of the shadow war against Iran and the opening of a new front. Chinese analysts and relevant Chinese military think tanks have concluded that the purpose of the Israeli embassy in Turkmenistan is to undermine Iran’s stability from the north, further complicating the conflict. China views this as an Israeli attempt to create a Pandora’s box of security risks in Central Asia. With China continuously assessing the reasons for Iran’s security failures, Chinese intelligence identified significant security gaps in Iran in early 2025 and 2026. It believes that the Israeli embassy in Turkmenistan enhances Mossad’s ability to exploit these gaps to damage sensitive Iranian facilities, potentially impacting Chinese interests. Beijing’s concerns extend beyond its ally Iran to the security of its investments and Belt and Road Initiative projects in the region. The escalation of the Israeli-Iranian conflict destabilizes traditional Chinese spheres of influence in the Middle East and Central Asia.
Therefore, Chinese intelligence and military agencies view the opening of the Israeli embassy in Turkmenistan in April 2023, just a few kilometers from the Iranian border, as a strategic move by the US and Israel within a broader context aimed at encircling and destabilizing Iran, thereby threatening vital Chinese interests in Central Asia and the Middle East. Chinese and military analyses, especially after the discovery of growing Mossad penetrations in Iran, indicate that Beijing sees this presence as an intelligence and military encirclement. China fears that the Israeli embassy in Ashgabat, the capital of Turkmenistan, is a Mossad operations platform. Hence, China is concerned that the Israeli embassy in Turkmenistan is not just a diplomatic mission but an advanced center for the Mossad (Israeli intelligence) to collect intelligence and recruit agents inside Iran, especially after leaks about Israel’s ability to strike internal targets in Iran, which represents a new intelligence war targeting Iran’s national security from the closest point to its borders. Here, Chinese intelligence, military, defense, and security circles feel that the Israeli embassy in Turkmenistan is primarily seeking to weaken its Iranian partner. Israel, through this geographical proximity, aims to increase pressure on the Iranian regime, which China considers a Pandora’s box of security risks that could lead to the collapse of the Iranian regime, a strategic partner and ally in confronting Western influence. This coincides with Chinese and international analyses observing Israel’s ability to conduct a sophisticated intelligence war inside Iran, including leaks about planting Mossad agents inside Iran, smuggling drones, and disabling Iranian air defense systems from within. These activities have been repeated following the Israeli strikes that targeted sensitive Iranian sites in 2025 and 2026.
China is also concerned about the Israeli embassy in Turkmenistan, viewing it as a threat to Chinese interests in Central Asia and the Middle East and a direct cause of instability in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. This is especially true given that Turkmenistan is a vital source of natural gas for China, and Iran is a gateway connecting China to the Middle East. Therefore, any conflict or chaos resulting from the fall of the Iranian regime could threaten China’s massive investments and energy security, particularly given China’s heavy reliance on Iranian oil and gas. From a Chinese intelligence perspective, the Israeli presence increases the likelihood of a direct war between Iran and Israel, which could disrupt energy supplies and destabilize a region stretching from the Gulf to Central Asia. Consequently, China is apprehensive about the Israeli embassy in Turkmenistan, as it directly threatens Chinese interests in Central Asia. Turkmenistan is a major supplier of natural gas to China and forms a vital part of China’s overland energy corridors, thus reducing Beijing’s dependence on maritime routes. China views any Israeli security influence (especially in cybersecurity and defense) near its western borders as a source of instability and a threat to its Belt and Road Initiative, particularly since Turkmenistan is a vital hub in China’s plans to connect Central Asia to the Middle East via the initiative. Beijing fears that Israeli activities aimed at containing Iran (through its relations with Iran’s neighbors) could lead to regional tensions that would hinder Chinese infrastructure and railway projects.
Chinese circles are concerned about the expansion of a circle of hostility around Iran through Turkmenistan, which borders Tehran. China believes that Israel’s strategy in Central Asia, based on strengthening relations with Muslim-majority countries such as Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, aims to penetrate Iranian borders, placing China in a difficult position between its strategic ally (Iran) and its economic partner (Israel/Central Asian states). At the same time, China is apprehensive about the escalating security and cyber competition it faces. Chinese intelligence and military agencies believe that the opening of the Israeli embassy in Turkmenistan coincided with Israel’s strengthening of its security ties in the region. Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen discussed cooperation in the areas of border protection and cybersecurity, which could diminish the joint Chinese-Russian security influence in these countries.
Therefore, China’s response to the perceived threat of an Israeli embassy opening in Turkmenistan has been to adopt a balancing strategy. This strategy involves strengthening China’s technical and security cooperation with Iran to help detect and counter Israeli intelligence operations. Beijing is also closely monitoring all security developments, especially given the anticipated increase in Israeli strikes on vital targets in Iran during 2026. Therefore, China worked to bolster its technical support for Iran, a move that came as a reaction to Israeli actions on Iran’s border in Turkmenistan. China expanded its technical cooperation with Tehran to help it detect and uncover Israeli (Mossad) agents and intelligence activities within Iranian territory. China also played a mediating role, maintaining its alliance with Iran. It adopted a supportive stance towards Tehran by condemning Israeli strikes as a violation of sovereignty and exerting diplomatic pressure to prevent the collapse of the Iranian regime, preferring its continued existence as a counterweight to the United States and Israel.
Finally, China is attempting to play a role in the balancing act. Despite its concerns regarding the Israeli embassy in Turkmenistan, China seeks to strengthen its relations with Turkmenistan by bolstering economic partnerships, encouraging Turkmenistan to become more deeply involved in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and emphasizing the need to combat the three evil forces (terrorism, extremism, and separatism) in the region. This reinforces China’s security position against any potential Western or Israeli infiltration.
