The present war on Iran has proven that being a superpower nation, advanced with latest military technology doesn’t mean it’s able to win each single battle, nor does it mean its ability to diminish a given military inferior nation. Learning about Iran dynamics through the western stream media has misled the entire world undermining Iran’s military competence. Meanwhile, the United States has proven to be neither a visionary nation nor a credible security partner that should prompt the Gulf States to have a fresh approach of their foreign policy and security needs.
The United States, in short, is a nation that is ruled exclusively by a 4-year presidency tenure, waiving its “checks & balances” – a complete foreign policy turnaround could happen on the occasion of a newcomer to the White House. Moreover, having Trump in power proves that the US could military act alone based on the desire of its president, ignoring alliances and friends. The only clear US consistence foreign policy over decades, is its military apparatus export expansion, happening by nourishing a high level of tension in conflicting zones, such as the Middle East.
The Gulf States’ dynamics revolve around three pillars: prosperity, security, and religion. Luckily, the vast majority of its citizens don’t care about politics, per se – its stability lied in meeting these needs. Whereas, being wealthy nations, holding over 60% of world oil reserves and 30% of gas reserves, has a price to pay. Thus, Gulf security will remain a permanent challenge for the region and won’t go away for decades to come, driven by Iran that could be considered a regional outlier, threatening the stability of the Gulf States.
“There isn’t any such thing as a free lunch” is a phrase that evolved in the US. Nevertheless, the Gulf States have been kind enough in offering “free lunch” to many nations, acting generously under the assumption that their partners will eventually value this kind of friendships. I trust the most valuable public gift for a ruler in history is the Qatari’s airplane gift to President Trump, which hasn’t prevented the United States’ best ally, Israel, from bombing Qatar, labeled with some fake assumptions. The gift was accepted despite US presidential gift regulations that shouldn’t exceed five-hundreds dollars.
These premises offer the Gulf States some good dynamics that require switching their black-and-white mindset, accepting the fact that present conflict with Iran will remain for years to come. The Middle East culturally lies around compromise; thus, a policy of accepting these challenges, but diffusing them is more valued to the present approach of eliminating national threats. The Gulf States need to advance its strengths, better deal with its dynamics.
The Gulf States have been kind enough to open their borders for numerous international companies producing and exporting their products to the region, which has lifted the Gulf economies placing them equal to the most advanced nations. Gulf States need to narrow this door, enabling enterprises whose governments have exhibited true solidarity to the region to harvest the profits of this region, discouraging products coming from unsupported nations to benefit from this wealthy region.
Moreover, a few Gulf States made the mistake of normalizing with Israel while ignoring the long-lasting conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, enabling Israeli business people to economically expand in their nations, ignoring the political vulnerability fact of their nations. The normalization was a sweetener that voluntary offered to the United States at the wrong time without any given return. An implicit denormalization is more valued to the Gulf States that should happen until a true peace and stability happen in the region.
Uniting the 22 nations of the Arab world in a single mission is an obsolete idea and waste of time; every nation went on its own irreversible path. The league of Arabs Affairs became a burden rather than being an asset. Moreover, a group of diversified alliances that entail nations like Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey will often carry the burden of their own political dynamics, along with potential hidden agendas that might constrain the alliance. Establishing a mutual tailored-made security partnership with the same nations is more beneficial than bounding them together.
The Gulf States need to distance themselves from all the regional conflicts, focusing on the present challenges, mainly Iran. Saudi Arabia, the largest Gulf nation, must play a leadership role in these efforts, placing a clear security vision for the entire region. Additionally, a thorough discussion of the present arrangement with the United States need to take place on the basis of mutual benefits rather than protecting the region from the Iranian threats. The US is a naturally hegemon nation and its universal present exist in its doctrine.
Iran is in economic need of the Gulf States; most of Iran’s global trade is happening in the United Arab Emirates, giving the emirates an economic privilege due to the sanctions on Iran. The Gulf has to offer Iran a number of justifications that its economic and security stabilities are interexchange. Reaching a peaceful deal with Iran will prevent the region from a large bill of economic and security instability.
