Israel has escalated strikes across Lebanon after Hezbollah fired missiles in solidarity with Iran. The attacks have displaced over a million Lebanese and killed hundreds, including many civilians.
Israel has targeted Hezbollah strongholds, strategic bridges over the Litani River, and areas of central Beirut previously considered safe. Public discussion in Israel now includes the possibility of a temporary occupation of south Lebanon, with the stated aim of delivering a final blow to Hezbollah.
Historical Context
Israel’s engagements in Lebanon date back to the late 1960s, when Palestinian guerrillas used Lebanon as a base against Israel.
The first occupation of south Lebanon in 1978 failed to resolve attacks, leading to the full invasion in 1982 that reached Beirut. That war gave birth to Hezbollah and led to an 18-year Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, during which Hezbollah conducted insurgent operations with Iranian support, ultimately forcing Israel to withdraw in 2000.
The 2006 “Second Lebanon War” reinforced Hezbollah’s power both as a militia and within the Lebanese government, despite UN Resolution 1701 calling for its disarmament. Since then, Hezbollah has remained a potent Iranian proxy, shaping Lebanon’s security and politics.
Current Situation
Following Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attacks, Hezbollah engaged in the conflict, believing Israel would be constrained. Israel’s strikes since late 2024 have significantly weakened Hezbollah militarily, and a new Lebanese government formed in February 2025 aims to reassert sovereignty and encourage Hezbollah disarmament.
Despite these developments, Hezbollah has refused to give up arms, and Israel continues to target its positions and occupy strategic sites. Even before the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, tensions were rising, threatening the ceasefire and historic dialogue opportunities.
Negotiation or Genuine Threat?
Israel’s threats of occupation may be a tactic in future Israeli-Lebanese negotiations. Yet with expansionist rhetoric within Israel’s government and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s interest in maintaining the state of emergency, a genuine occupation remains plausible. Marginal groups within the settler movement and elements in the Likud party openly advocate permanent control over south Lebanon.
Analysis: A Historic Moment at Risk
The Lebanon-Israel dynamic now faces a critical juncture. The majority of Lebanese support Hezbollah disarmament, and the government is open to negotiating directly with Israel. This could be a historic opportunity for lasting peace.
However, if Israel reoccupies southern Lebanon, the cycle of violence familiar from 1978, 1982, and 2006 could repeat. Such an outcome would undermine Lebanese state authority, destabilize the region further, and serve the interests of actors prioritizing military objectives over dialogue.
The trajectory of Lebanon-Israel relations will depend heavily on the outcome of the wider Iran conflict and the willingness of both governments to seize a moment for negotiation rather than repeating past mistakes.
With information from Reuters.
