China seeks to bolster its influence in the Gulf and diminish the American military presence through its military bases scattered across the Gulf region and targeting Iran. This is achieved through a gradual Chinese expansion strategy that includes military maneuvers, arms deals, and naval deployments, alongside indirect support for Iranian attacks against Washington’s bases. This cooperation aims to establish Beijing’s influence as a strategic alternative to undermine Western and American hegemony in the region. China is pursuing a policy of maneuvering and “gradual expansion” to reduce American influence, particularly in the Gulf region, utilizing joint military exercises and drills in the Gulf and the Middle East. Here, China adopts a strategy of gradual military expansion in the Gulf to reduce American influence, relying on strategic partnerships, strengthening the Chinese naval presence, and indirectly supporting the regional actions of several countries, most notably Iran. To ensure this, Beijing is seeking to replace US bases with its own network of bases or joint military exercises, amidst Chinese military intelligence efforts to develop a future coordination plan with Egypt and Iran to end US military dominance in the region.
For this long-term Chinese plan to expel US military bases from the Gulf states to succeed, Beijing is developing detailed scenarios that rely on equipping the region with logistical and operational capabilities to replace the United States as the comprehensive “security guarantor” in the region. While Beijing seeks to avoid direct involvement, preferring to remain within the realm of economic gain, it is pushing its economic partner, Egypt, to advocate for a joint Arab and Gulf military force under the auspices of the Arab League. This would bolster collective Arab and Gulf defense commitments under the direct supervision of the Egyptian army, the largest in the region, which would lead the collective defense of regional and Gulf security. Egypt is currently Beijing’s largest security, strategic, and military partner and ally, particularly given the new Egyptian military policy under President “Abdel Fattah El-Sisi”, which calls for diversifying Egypt’s defense and military partnerships away from the American military grip and hegemony in the region.
On the Egyptian side, China places great importance on the strength of the Egyptian army, which rejects the presence of any American military bases on Egyptian soil that would diminish Egyptian sovereignty. Therefore, China is deepening its relations with Egypt, especially in the military manufacturing and logistics sectors, as part of diversifying its arms sources, despite Egypt simultaneously being a key security partner of Washington. While the Gulf states have begun to question the effectiveness of American security guarantees (especially after the events of 2025-2026), they have turned to China as an alternative arms supplier and close economic partner, even though they still consider American bases a cornerstone of their regional security at present, a position China rejects.
The axes of Chinese policy to reduce American military influence through its military bases spread across the Gulf region and targeting Iran are evident in China’s pursuit of a policy of naval military expansion: China uses joint naval maneuvers and a presence at strategic maritime chokepoints in the Gulf to enhance its influence, emphasizing that the region is the strategic heart of the world. Along with China’s policy of supporting regional allies, China attempts to provide indirect support to Iranian actions against American bases in the Gulf states and the region, particularly in Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, Jordan, and Oman.
To ensure the success of this long-term Chinese tactic of expelling all American military bases from the Gulf and the Middle East, China is working to coordinate with Egypt and Iran. This coordination involves a potential long-term coordinating role for Egypt and Iran in Beijing’s maneuvers to undermine American military influence in the Middle East. To this end, China seeks to establish Chinese alternatives to the American military bases in the Gulf and the Middle East. China is working to create a network of bases (permanent or ready for use) to guarantee the security of its energy supplies, rather than relying on American protection. With its strategy of gradual military expansion in the Gulf and the region through the Belt and Road Initiative projects, China can leverage its substantial economic investments to strengthen its political and military position in the region. This aims to achieve China’s ultimate goal: the expulsion of all American military bases from the Gulf, the establishment of a new security order in which China is the dominant power, and the securing of its oil interests from both Iran and the Gulf, independent of the American security umbrella.
The current Chinese strategy toward American influence, which supports the policy of expelling and rejecting all American military bases deployed in the region, particularly in the Gulf, is characterized by China’s pursuit of a policy of “active neutrality” and mediation to present itself as a peaceful alternative to the United States. Simultaneously, China is diversifying its defense partnerships, working to deepen military cooperation with countries in the region, such as the “Civilization Eagles 2025” exercises with Egypt, and selling advanced air defense systems and drones to Gulf states, thus reducing their exclusive reliance on American technology. Furthermore, China provides diplomatic and technical support to Iran, rejecting the American-Israeli military escalation against Tehran and calling for dialogue. It also seeks to integrate its communications systems into Iran’s defense infrastructure to reduce its vulnerability to Israeli, American, and Western cyberattacks. To this end, China seeks to invest in strategic infrastructure, both within Iran and in all Gulf states, particularly those with a significant US military presence. Through its Belt and Road Initiative, China controls vital ports and logistics projects in Iran, Egypt, and the Gulf, granting it “soft power” that could translate into future strategic gains. This would enable China to play a parallel, pressure-based role, pushing for the expulsion of all US military bases from the region.
The most prominent feature of this strategic cooperation between China and the Gulf states to expel the US military bases is a Chinese-Iranian plan. Beijing is pursuing a comprehensive plan to end US military dominance. Indicators show a firm Chinese desire to reduce US influence in the region in cooperation with Tehran, especially given the escalating tensions following US and Israeli military strikes against Iran. This prompted a decisive Iranian response, including a series of attacks, indirectly supported by Beijing, against US military bases in Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, Jordan, and Oman. Especially in light of the 25-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between China and Iran, Sino-Iranian relations have deepened through a comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement signed in 2021, strengthening economic and military ties between the two countries.
Based on the preceding analysis, we understand the extent to which China, in the Middle East, and particularly in its relations with Egypt, the Gulf States, and Iran, pursues a strategy of “gradual expansion” based on economic and diplomatic partnerships to enhance its influence while avoiding direct military confrontation with the United States. While China harbors long-term ambitions to reduce the American military presence, current realities up to March 2026 reflect a delicate balancing act by China to achieve its long-term objectives in this regard.
