Israeli officials have recognized that there is no certainty that the ongoing war against Iran will lead to the fall of its clerical government, as there are no signs of an uprising among Iranians despite the intense bombardment. U. S. President Donald Trump’s comments suggesting the war might end soon contrast with Israel’s assessment that Washington is not nearing a decision to stop the conflict.
The bombing campaign conducted by the U. S. and Israel has resulted in significant casualties, including the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and various military commanders, alongside the destruction of civilian homes and infrastructure. This has caused anger among the Iranian population, with many fearing to protest due to threats from authorities against dissent amidst the war. The long-term situation for Iran appears dire, with severe sanctions crippling the economy and little hope for improvement, especially after violent crackdowns on protests earlier this year.
While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that their joint military efforts could empower the Iranian people to take control of their future, he also acknowledged that it is ultimately up to them to rise against their government, hinting that an uprising is not anticipated soon. Israel and the U. S. have yet to publicly outline clear goals for the war or conditions for its conclusion.
Trump referred to the war as “very complete” but clarified that it would only cease once he decided that its objectives were achieved and Iran was completely defeated. In a closed briefing, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar stated that he could not provide a timeline for military actions, consistent with the belief that the U. S. is not nearing a conclusion to the war. Saar expressed confidence that while Iran’s government might survive the current conflict, it is likely to collapse in the future.
Experts suggest that weakening Iran’s military capabilities may serve as a more concrete war aim than aiming for regime change, which is seen as more complex and uncertain. Amid the conflict, Iranian authorities have issued warnings against protests, framing them as acts against the state. Although some Iranians secretly express their discontent with the regime and even celebrated Khamenei’s death, the war has created an environment where public dissent is perilous. Daily life continues with many businesses functioning, albeit under constrained conditions due to the ongoing bombings, which devastate critical infrastructure and exacerbate economic distress, preventing the potential for significant public protests.
With information from Reuters
