Background
The war in the Middle East has entered its fourth day. Following the US-Israel (henceforth called the Allies) attacks on Iran, the latter has retaliated by striking multiple targets belonging to the former in the region. How the war will take shape is a big question? Here are represented four scenarios predicting the course of the war. These are based on the goals of the allies set before the war; namely regime change in Iran, obliterating its nuclear and missile capabilities and ending Iranian support for militant groups in the region.
Scenario 1: Mission accomplished
In this situation, the allies achieve their goals. They have already eliminated Iran’s top political and military leadership. The allies will have to fight a long action, possibly for months. They destroy Iran’s offensive capabilities, mainly its missile power. Iranian missile sites, manufacturing industries, launch silos and mobile launchers are attacked by the allies. The latter will have to employ enormous air power, using bombers and fighter aircrafts to launch air to surface missiles and bombs. Submarine launched ballistic and cruise missiles (SLBMs and SLCMs) will also be used. The allies also neutralize regional militias like Hezbollah and Houthis in the region. When Iran’s military capabilities are vanquished, either the protestors take over the country or the allies do boots-on-the-ground to establish friendly government. In both cases, it would be a big change in Middle Eastern politics. The only opposition to Israel and the US in the region would end.
Scenario 2: Friction
In this scenario, the allies still destroy Iran’s military capabilities. However, there is no regime change. Two situations exist under this scenario. One is that the protestors don’t engage in vandalism and violence to take over the government. It seems sound as, contrary to Trump’s expectations, the majority of the people of Iran support the government after the attacks. After the assassination of the supreme leader, thousands mourned the death of their leader. In this case, Ali Khamenei’s successor continues the rule of the Islamic republic. This would be a strategic failure for the US and Israel. Because Iran will reinvigorate its military capabilities though it will take time. The allies, under this situation, achieve for a short time their two goals; destroying Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities, and ending its support to the militant groups in the region. However, they will fail in the third goal which was the regime change in the country.
In the second situation under this scenario, the allies start a land operation in Iran, whether it is carried out by the US and Israel only, or a new coalition is created for the purpose. The boots-on-the-ground is highly unlikely. The US will be embroiled in a long war. Its history of wars in Vietnam and Iraq conform this. Moreover, there will be considerable domestic opposition within the US. However, the air power has its ‘limitations’. It cannot be employed for regime change operation, for which land action is required. So, under this contingency plan, the allies or coalition carry out an amphibious landing in Iran. In this situation, Iran would be at advantage. Its geography would prove anathema for the invaders. On the south of the country is sea, while the Zagros mountains form a barrier in the south-west and west. The Iranian nation would fight to the end and the resistance would be staunch. Even if the allies use massive airpower to destroy Iranian military infrastructure and capabilities, the Iranians would still resort to asymmetric action, combining conventional and guerilla tactics. Again, it must be said that it is unlikely that the US would start a land operation.
Scenario 3: Ceasefire
Following this scenario, both sides suffer considerable damage. The allies continue to bomb Iran’s leadership and civilian and military infrastructure. On the other hand, Iran’s missiles inflict severe losses on the allies, targeting Israeli and American military bases, air defenses and naval ships. In other words, a ‘regional war’ ensues, as Iran had warned. Iran and the militant groups target shipping of the enemies in the region. This would have implications for the whole world, the oil prices have already skyrocketed. An energy crisis looms. Countries like China, which may be among to be affected adversely, would increase diplomatic efforts to stop the war. In this ‘attrition war’, the Americans face personnel and material damage and lose the nerve, facing domestic opposition to the war. They agree to negotiate, an offer which Iran also will not reject, possibly. In this case the talks would continue as they had before. Foreign countries would mediate between the belligerents, while the diplomatic engagements would prevail. Following considerable damage, Iran agrees to negotiate on the matters of nuclear enrichment, those of missile capabilities and proxies it will not. Again, it would be a strategic failure for the allies.
Scenario 4: Blatant failure
This scenario overlaps with the third. Under this situation, the allies face a big strategic failure. They employ enormous air and naval power to achieve the goals. However, the Iranian missile stockpile still doesn’t vanquish. Iran gains support from countries like China, Russia, Pakistan and continues to wreak havoc on the US bases in the region, its naval ships in the Persian Gulf, and Israel. Following enormous material and human losses, the US decides to end the conflict. It will engage in some face saving strikes, but the result would be status quo ante bellum. This will leave Israel alone facing Israel. However, there seems no logic Israel would dare fight Iran without US support.
This result would foster the Islamic republic, while the public trust on the government would be rebuilt and augmented. The US would be blunted for fighting an inconclusive war against a non-imminent threat.
Did they underestimate Iran?
Excluding the first scenario, the other three would be a strategic failure for the US and Israel. It seems difficult that, after the assassination of their leader by the enemy, the Iranians would easily come to table or simply terminate the war without taking revenge. On the other hand, the war has spread to over eight countries in the Middle East. The reaction of the Gulf countries is yet to be seen. All these facts portend a bloody and tumultuous conflict in the region.
