Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have increased their influence in wartime decisions despite the loss of key commanders. This shift has led to a more aggressive strategy, particularly in their drone and missile operations throughout the region. Anticipating potential leadership losses, the Guards had decentralized their command structure before the recent U. S.-Israeli strikes, allowing mid-ranking officers to have greater authority. This shift could result in dangerous decisions, such as attacks on neighboring countries, which was exemplified by recent attacks on Turkey.
The Guards’ prominent position within Iran’s political and security landscape makes them well-placed to manage any fallout from protests, thus undermining hopes from the U. S. and Israel for regime change following their military actions. The selection of a new supreme leader following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could consolidate the Guards’ power further. Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, could be a prominent candidate and has close ties to the Guards, potentially reinforcing their control.
Reports indicate that the Guards are now more involved in national decision-making since the recent hostilities began. Their new commander, Ahmad Vahidi, attends all high-level meetings, emphasizing the aim of preserving the Islamic revolutionary system. To ensure continuity, each commander has identified successors who are prepared to step in if needed.
The Guards’ longstanding strategy of decentralization was influenced by past conflicts, such as the U. S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, where maintaining local defense was essential. This strategy allows the Guards to tackle external military threats while also managing internal security issues. Although the Guards face challenges with continued attacks on their leadership, they appear united against outside threats, though there are concerns about the command structure facing potential strain.
There are indications that the response to recent military actions has been pre-planned, with units operating based on prior instructions rather than under real-time commands. The Revolutionary Guards are now heavily involved in nearly every strategic decision in Iran and have a supportive political leadership composed of former Guards members.
The Guards, established after Iran’s 1979 revolution to protect the new Islamic republic, have evolved into a powerful entity combining military, intelligence, and economic power. This has allowed them to maintain authority amid external and internal threats. Their experience in the Iran-Iraq War has shaped many current leaders, some of whom have pivotal roles in Iran’s governance.
As the Guards gained influence in response to growing tensions, they were assigned critical projects like the nuclear program, which is perceived differently by Iran and Western nations. The Guards have also taken control of significant economic activities, especially in the energy sector. Furthermore, they act as the link to Shi’ite groups in the Middle East and have used paramilitary forces to suppress domestic unrest.
With information from Reuters
