China’s influence in Bangladesh is expected to increase following the ouster of Indian-backed leader Sheikh Hasina, particularly after the elections set for February 12, 2024. The two main political parties leading in the polls historically have had colder relations with India compared to Hasina’s Awami League, which has now been banned. With Hasina currently in self-imposed exile in New Delhi, China has intensified its investment and diplomatic ties in Bangladesh, including a recent defense agreement to establish a drone factory near the Indian border.
Bangladeshis view India as involved in supporting Hasina’s actions, leading to resentment among the public. Humaiun Kobir, an adviser to prime ministerial candidate Tarique Rahman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), reflected this sentiment, stating that people reject relations with a nation they view as harboring a terrorist. Although Rahman has advocated for amicable relationships with all countries, he emphasizes prioritizing the interests of Bangladesh.
Relations between Dhaka and Delhi have soured recently, exacerbated by tensions in cricket, a widely followed sport in both nations. A notable Bangladeshi cricketer was removed from an Indian Premier League team following backlash from Hindu groups, leading Bangladesh to ban broadcasts of the league and request its cricket World Cup matches be relocated. Additionally, both countries have restricted visa access to each other, and there have been few public exchanges since Hasina’s removal, aside from a meeting between Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and Rahman to express condolences.
Bangladeshs interim government has made failed attempts to have Hasina extradited after she was sentenced to death in absentia for allegedly ordering a violent crackdown years earlier, during which many deaths occurred. The BNP and Islamist rival Jamaat-e-Islami are currently accusing one another of being overly influenced by foreign powers, with Rahman asserting priority for Bangladesh over external nations.
Indian officials have acknowledged the need to engage with whatever party forms the next government. China has become Bangladeshs largest trading partner over the past decade, with bilateral trade around $18 billion and a significant imbalance favoring Chinese imports. Following Hasina’s exit, Chinese investments have surged, contrasting with the lack of new deals involving Indian businesses. Analysts note that China is incrementally enhancing its influence in Bangladesh amid deteriorating India-Bangladesh relations, influenced by a decline in U. S. involvement.
Experts believe that as long as relations between Dhaka and Delhi remain strained, the new government in Bangladesh may lean more toward China due to its economic benefits and avoidance of sensitive issues related to the Hindu minority. However, increasing ties with China does not eliminate the importance of India. Bangladesh relies on India for various necessities, including trade and security, and any new administration would likely not disregard such a crucial neighbor. Despite political tensions, India-Bangladesh trade levels have persisted at about $13.5 billion, while Indian companies continue to support Bangladesh’s electricity needs.
Long-standing grievances between the nations include disputes over water sharing and incidents of violence at the border. Many in Bangladesh resent India’s perceived endorsement of Hasinas government, with young voters increasingly aware of Indias influence. The youth-led National Citizen Party, aligned with Jamaat, has highlighted Indian dominance in their electoral discussions.
With information from Reuters
