U.S. intelligence assessments have raised doubts about whether Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, is prepared to fully cooperate with Washington’s strategy for the country, according to multiple people familiar with classified reports. The concerns center on whether Rodríguez is willing to formally sever ties with U.S. adversaries such as Iran, China, and Russia following the removal of former president Nicolás Maduro earlier this month.
Publicly, U.S. officials have demanded that Venezuela expel diplomats, advisers, and security personnel linked to these countries. Privately, however, intelligence agencies remain uncertain that Rodríguez is fully aligned with U.S. objectives, despite Washington’s strong backing of her interim leadership.
Signals of Ambiguity
Rodríguez’s swearing-in ceremony was attended by representatives from Iran, China, and Russia, a move that raised early questions in Washington. Since taking office, she has not publicly announced any intention to cut ties with these long-standing partners, even as U.S. pressure has intensified.
Intelligence reports suggest it remains unclear whether Rodríguez views cooperation with the United States as a temporary necessity or a strategic realignment. A recent visit by CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Caracas included discussions on Venezuela’s political future, but it is not known whether those talks altered the intelligence community’s assessment.
Strategic Stakes for Washington
The Trump administration sees Venezuela as central to its effort to limit adversaries’ influence in the Western Hemisphere, particularly given the country’s vast oil reserves. A clear break by Caracas from Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran would open the door for greater U.S. investment in Venezuela’s energy sector and strengthen Washington’s regional leverage.
Failure to secure Rodríguez’s compliance could undermine U.S. efforts to steer Venezuela’s post-Maduro transition without deeper military involvement. Officials privately acknowledge that maintaining influence over the interim government is critical to avoiding renewed instability.
Abandoning Longtime Allies
For Venezuela, complying with U.S. demands would mean distancing itself from partners that have provided crucial economic and security support. Iran has assisted in repairing refineries, China has accepted oil as debt repayment, and Russia has supplied military equipment, including missile systems. Cuba has also played a significant role by providing intelligence and security support in exchange for subsidised oil.
These relationships have helped Venezuela survive years of sanctions and isolation, making any abrupt rupture politically and economically risky for Rodríguez’s government.
Mixed Signals From Caracas
Since Maduro’s removal, Rodríguez has taken steps that appear aimed at appeasing Washington, including releasing political prisoners and approving the sale of up to 50 million barrels of oil to the United States. These moves have been welcomed by U.S. officials as signs of pragmatic cooperation.
At the same time, Rodríguez has pushed back rhetorically. In a recent speech, she said she had “had enough” of U.S. intervention, underscoring the tension between public defiance and private engagement. U.S. officials have nonetheless described recent phone calls with her as constructive.
Limited Alternatives for the US
Despite growing doubts, the Trump administration does not currently see a viable alternative to working with Rodríguez. U.S. officials have publicly invested significant political capital in supporting her interim leadership, making a sudden shift risky.
Nonetheless, Washington has begun quietly expanding contacts with senior military and security officials in Venezuela as a contingency, should its approach toward Rodríguez change.
Machado as a Longer-Term Option
Intelligence reports have also assessed that opposition leader María Corina Machado is not yet positioned to govern effectively, citing her limited ties to the military and oil sector. While popular domestically and viewed favourably in Washington, she is seen as lacking the institutional backing needed to stabilise the country in the short term.
The Trump administration has signalled interest in keeping Machado involved, potentially in an advisory role, while viewing her as a longer-term leadership option rather than an immediate replacement.
Analysis
The intelligence doubts surrounding Rodríguez highlight the fragility of Washington’s Venezuela strategy. By relying on figures linked to the old regime, the U.S. gains short-term stability but risks long-term misalignment if interim leaders resist fundamental geopolitical realignment.
For now, cooperation appears transactional rather than ideological, driven by oil sales and sanctions relief rather than shared strategic goals. Unless Washington can secure firmer commitments from Caracas, its ability to reshape Venezuela’s alliances and avoid deeper intervention may prove limited.
With information from Reuters.
