An unknown trader has made a profit of more than $400,000 after correctly betting that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would be removed from power. The wagers were placed on the prediction market platform Polymarket, where traders buy and sell contracts tied to the likelihood of real-world events. At the time the bets were made, the odds of Maduro’s ouster were considered low.
The Trades
Polymarket data shows the trader built positions in contracts predicting Maduro’s removal shortly before the U.S. military operation took place. The total value of the wagers stood at roughly $34,000 before the weekend raid. After news broke of Maduro’s capture, those contracts surged in value, generating an estimated profit of about $410,000.
Wider Market Reaction
Financial markets reacted strongly to the developments in Venezuela. Major stock indexes rose, oil prices gained, and energy stocks posted notable increases. Venezuelan government bonds and debt issued by state oil company PDVSA jumped sharply, with some prices rising by nearly 30%, as investors anticipated political change and the possibility of a future debt restructuring.
Political Attention
The mystery trade is expected to attract scrutiny from U.S. lawmakers already pushing for tighter rules on insider trading. Democratic Representative Ritchie Torres said he plans to introduce legislation that would ban elected officials, lawmakers, and federal employees from betting on prediction markets, citing concerns over access to material non-public information.
How Prediction Markets Work
Prediction markets such as Polymarket allow users to trade contracts that pay out based on whether a specific event occurs. Contracts often trade for just a few cents when outcomes seem unlikely but can pay out $1 if the event happens, creating the potential for large profits when traders place early bets.
Regulatory Context
Polymarket received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission in September to relaunch U.S. operations following its acquisition of a regulated derivatives exchange. While U.S.-based users are officially restricted from the main platform, many traders reportedly use VPNs to bypass those limits. The CFTC has not said whether it is reviewing trades linked to Maduro’s capture.
With information from REUTERS.
