China launched its most extensive military exercises around Taiwan on Monday, dubbed “Justice Mission 2025,” in a show of force aimed at demonstrating its ability to isolate the island from outside support during a conflict.
Beijing claims Taiwan under its “one China” policy and has vowed to bring the self-ruled island under its control, by force if necessary. Taiwan rejects China’s sovereignty claims, saying it is already an independent country officially known as the Republic of China, and that only its people can decide their future.
BACKGROUND: CHINA–TAIWAN RELATIONS
China and Taiwan have been politically divided since 1949, when the defeated Republic of China government fled to Taiwan after losing the civil war to Mao Zedong’s communists. The two sides have never signed a peace treaty and remain technically in a state of war.
The last large-scale fighting occurred in 1958, when Chinese forces shelled the Taiwan-controlled Kinmen and Matsu islands for more than a month, accompanied by naval and air clashes. Since then, tensions have ebbed and flowed but have intensified in recent years as China’s military power has grown.
EARLY FLASHPOINTS AND MILITARY PRESSURE
China sought to influence Taiwan’s political trajectory during the island’s first direct presidential election in 1996 by firing missiles into waters near Taiwan. The move was widely seen as an attempt to intimidate voters, but it backfired when pro-independence-leaning candidate Lee Teng-hui won convincingly.
The crisis prompted the United States to send aircraft carriers to the region, highlighting Taiwan’s importance to U.S. security strategy in Asia and cementing the Taiwan Strait as a major geopolitical flashpoint.
ESCALATION AFTER HIGH-LEVEL U.S. CONTACTS
In August 2022, China launched days of large-scale war games around Taiwan following a visit to Taipei by then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The drills included ballistic missile launches, some of which flew over Taiwan, as well as simulated air and naval attacks.
China said the exercises were meant to punish “separatist” forces and foreign interference, while Taiwan and its allies condemned them as destabilising and dangerous.
DRILLS UNDER PRESIDENT LAI CHING-TE
China intensified military pressure after Lai Ching-te, whom Beijing labels a separatist, assumed Taiwan’s presidency. In April 2023, drills followed a meeting between then-President Tsai Ing-wen and U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. In August 2023, China launched exercises after Lai, then vice president, visited the United States.
Following Lai’s inauguration in May 2024, China held “Joint Sword-2024A” drills, staging mock attacks and deploying heavily armed aircraft. Another round, “Joint Sword-2024B,” took place in October 2024 after Lai’s national day speech, with Taiwan reporting record numbers of Chinese aircraft involved.
RECENT AND LARGEST-EVER EXERCISES
In December 2024, Taiwan reported a surge in Chinese air force and navy activity around the island, though China did not formally confirm exercises at the time. In April 2025, Beijing announced “Strait Thunder-2025,” calling it a stern warning against separatism.
Monday’s “Justice Mission 2025” drills mark China’s most extensive exercises to date, focusing on joint operations and the ability to cut Taiwan off from external military and economic support.
ANALYSIS: WHY IT MATTERS
China’s war games have grown more frequent, larger in scale and increasingly focused on realistic combat scenarios, including blockades and joint air-sea operations. Analysts say this reflects Beijing’s determination to deter Taiwan independence and send a warning to the United States and its allies.
While the drills do not indicate an imminent invasion, they raise the risk of miscalculation as Chinese forces operate ever closer to Taiwan’s airspace and waters. For the region, Taiwan remains one of the most dangerous flashpoints, with any conflict likely to have global economic and security repercussions.
With information from Reuters.
