From Probability to Possibility: The Algorithm of Aspire in a Fragmenting Global Order

When Imagination Built Civilizations—and Why Harari and Zuboff Forgot It

We enter this moment in history with a world order that is no longer merely shifting—it is fragmenting. Institutions that once claimed universality are losing coherence, technological power is concentrated in a few hands, and narratives that once anchored global governance are dissolving into competing epistemologies. In this fractured landscape, the question is no longer who controls the most data, but who can still imagine futures not predetermined by it.

Few thinkers have expanded my intellectual horizon as much as Yuval Noah Harari and Shoshana Zuboff have. While Harari revealed that we live by the fictions we dare to imagine together, Zuboff warned us that our very ability to imagine that future is being hijacked for profit. It is imagination—Harari reminds us—that allowed Homo sapiens to organize vast collectives, to build civilizations out of stories that existed only in the mind. This capacity to imagine is the very engine of humanity’s improbable ascent.

And it is here that I propose what I call the Algorithm of Aspire—a counter-framework to the North’s algorithm of probability. Where Algorithmic Malthusianism narrows the future based on calculated inevitabilities, the Algorithm of Aspire widens it through intentional, collective imagination. It treats aspiration not as sentiment, but as geopolitical capability: a resource for designing institutions, technologies, and governance models that refuse to be confined by inherited limits. This is not a poetic detour; it is a diplomatic stance. For any civilization to thrive in the age of AI, it must possess not only the capacity to compute but also the capacity to imagine strategically.

II. Algorithmic Malthusianism—The Elegant Surrender of the North

Yet it is precisely here that both Harari and Zuboff appear trapped in what I call Algorithmic Malthusianism—a worldview that treats the digital future the way Thomas Malthus treated population growth: as an inevitability, a tightening noose, a fate to be endured rather than shaped. In Nexus, Harari no longer foregrounds the imaginative species that once rewrote the limits of its own biology. Instead, he presents humanity as a weary organism already outsmarted by probabilistic systems, as if the algorithm now perceives us more truthfully than we perceive ourselves. Zuboff, through the lens of surveillance capitalism, shows how corporations and states harvest data with an intimacy that borders on sovereign power. Together, their narratives converge on a single horizon: a bleak, predetermined future in which humans must accept algorithmic dominance as the new natural law.

But this is a philosophical contradiction too large to overlook. How can the species that built empires from myths now be reduced to passive subjects of code? How can Harari, who once celebrated imagination as our ultimate comparative advantage, now portray a future where that imagination seems to play no role? This is algorithmic Malthusianism at work: a belief that exponential technologies, like Malthus’s population curves, inevitably overwhelm human agency. It is a form of intellectual surrender—an elegant, persuasive surrender—but a surrender nonetheless.

III. The South’s Trap—Performing Identity Instead of Designing Power

The South, meanwhile, falls into its own trap. We respond to this foreclosed future not with alternative blueprints, but with hurt, nostalgia, or performances of identity—what I call the exotic dance. We protest digital colonialism, yet we continue to present ourselves as a cultural spectacle. We showcase traditions as museum artifacts rather than infrastructural power. And perhaps the more subtle danger is this: we begin to believe that this—our warmth, our cultural richness, our lived improvisation—is our only power. As if the South’s gift for hope, resilience, and possibility were merely a sentimental compensation for the lack of institutional and technological muscle.

But when hope becomes the only asset we claim, we trap ourselves in a soft form of dependence. We become the inspirational backdrop for global narratives, not the authors of those narratives. We become the terrain from which data is harvested, not the architects of the algorithms that shape the world. The South’s emotional, cultural, and improvisational strength is real—but it is only one form of power. Without translating this into infrastructure, governance, and technological authorship, we remain beautifully visible yet structurally invisible.

In doing so, we unwittingly accept the role assigned to us: not as coders of the future, but as its colorful background—visible, celebrated, yet structurally absent. This aesthetic presence without institutional weight is precisely what must be transformed.

IV. Appadurai’s Counteroffer—From Cultural Relic to Navigation System

This is why Appadurai matters—not as academic ornamentation, but as a strategic antidote. The Capacity to Aspire reframes culture as a navigational instrument, not a relic. Where the algorithmic worldview of the North leans heavily on probability—on predicting, constraining, and narrowing futures based on past patterns—Appadurai argues for something radically different: an algorithm of possibility. Aspirations, for Appadurai, are not naive dreams but collective maps that expand what a society believes it can reach. Hope, in this framing, is not sentimentality; it is a computational method for unlocking paths that probability alone cannot detect.

If Harari teaches us that humans are bound by shared fictions, Appadurai teaches us that we can choose which fictions to institutionalize—and that this act of choosing is itself a form of power. In contrast to algorithmic Malthusianism, which assumes human agency diminishes as systems scale, Appadurai insists that cultures can actively reconfigure their futures by investing in aspirations that exceed current constraints. For the South, this distinction is existential: either our stories remain performances admired from the outside, or they become blueprints that rewrite how power, technology, and governance are imagined.

V. Chatham House and the Architecture of Power—Why Governance Fails Without Plurality

From this vantage point, the task before us becomes far clearer. Even leading institutions like Chatham House warn of what they call asymmetric governance landscapes: a world where technological power is concentrated in a handful of firms and states, while the rest operate within rules they did not co-create. Similar analyses from the Carnegie Endowment, Oxford’s Internet Institute, and the Berkman Klein Center echo this concern: that without deliberate sovereignty-building, the Global South will remain a policy-taker, not a policy-maker, in the digital order.

These think tanks converge on a shared insight: the problem is not merely the technology, but the architecture of power surrounding it. Algorithmic systems are shaping markets, identities, and democratic processes faster than political institutions can respond. And when governance lags behind innovation, the vacuum is filled by actors with the most data—not necessarily the most legitimacy.

VI. CPF and the South’s Way of Seeing—Designing Futures in the Messiness of Reality

Before we even speak of infrastructure, there is the matter of how the South imagines its futures. My own work with Creative Permutation Foresight (CPF) emerges from a simple observation: that the South does not experience reality in clean lines, neat taxonomies, or perfectly modeled systems. Our lived world is nonlinear, improvisational, and patched together through contradictions, negotiations, and sudden moments of clarity. Western scenario planning often assumes stable institutions, mature data ecosystems, and orderly state capacities. But the South’s greatest asset is different: it lives close to the ground of uncertainty—and therefore close to possibility.

CPF is built on this sensibility. It treats scenario-building not as a rigid exercise of probability, but as a craft of permutations born from a world where futures arrive unexpectedly, where systems leak, where communities innovate out of necessity, and where hope is often the most durable infrastructure. CPF aligns far more with Appadurai than with Harari. If Appadurai argues that culture shapes the map of aspirations, CPF provides the mechanism for navigating that map—not through linear forecasts, but through living possibilities.

It is precisely because the South is messy that its futures are not predetermined. The North often misreads this messiness as dysfunction; CPF reads it as an abundance of pathways. And this is what algorithmic Malthusianism fails to grasp: that a world governed solely by probability misses the deeper terrain of human improvisation, resilience, and imagination. The South’s scenarios are not built on the cold logic of inevitability, but on the warm logic of becoming.

VII. Interoperability, Not Uniformity—A New Settlement Between North and South

“Blockchain systems that transform gossip—the social glue Harari celebrates—into verifiable, accountable governance” offer a practical bridge between imaginaries and institutions. It is one of the few technologies that can be trusted by the North—precisely because it is transparent, tamper-resistant, and dismisses the possibility of unilateral manipulation. And it is equally one of the few that can reassure the South, which too often feels its voice diluted or overwritten inside black-box AI systems. Through blockchain, representation becomes recorded, not symbolic; verifiable, not rhetorical.

In a federated blockchain architecture, both North and South participate without ceding control. Each node retains identity, context, and agency, yet contributes to a shared consensus layer—much like a digitally scaled version of ancient Greek democracy, where representation was distributed, debate was collective, and legitimacy emerged from participation rather than imposition.

Such a system does not erase asymmetry, but it removes the need for blind trust. It turns suspicion into structure. And it proves that imagination without implementation is sentiment, while implementation without imagination is tyranny.

Because the future cannot be left to algorithmic Malthusianism. Neither Harari nor Zuboff offer a path out—they diagnose the problem but do not reopen the horizon. Their caution is valuable, but caution alone cannot build a civilization.

The North, in its fatigue, needs the South’s unbroken capacity to aspire—a medicine against the nihilism produced by its own machines. But the North must also recognize a deeper truth: it can no longer impose a single, universal digital order. The age of one-size-fits-all standards is ending. What the world now needs is interoperability, not uniformity—shared bridges, not inherited blueprints. A global architecture where diverse systems coexist, communicate, and negotiate on equal footing.

The South, in its hesitation, needs to stop performing pain and start architecting systems. Interoperability is not achieved through pleas for understanding, nor through appeals to historical sympathy. It requires building infrastructure—cleaner datasets, better institutional memory, accountable governance stacks, and technological ecosystems that reflect our lived realities. The South cannot tantrum its way into sovereignty; it must engineer its way into relevance. Sovereignty is not a sentiment; it is an infrastructure.

VIII. Conclusion—The Future Belongs to Those Who Rewrite the Code

And so the future will not belong to those who fear algorithms, nor to those who romanticize resistance. It will belong to those who recall the oldest truth of our species: that imagination is not decoration but power—the same force that once organized wandering bands into nations and can now reorganize the digital world. The question is no longer whether algorithms will rule us, but whether we dare to write codes worthy of our own civilizational imagination.

If there is a standpoint from which I write, it is this: I hold logic as my compass and imagination as my horizon. I believe in rigor, evidence, and critical reasoning—yet I also believe no civilization has ever advanced without a story larger than its fears. The South teaches me this daily: that hope is not the opposite of logic, but what logic becomes when it refuses to surrender.

And perhaps that is the proposition I leave behind: that we can analyze with the sharpness of a scientist while dreaming with the audacity of a filmmaker. That our diagnoses may reveal constraints, but our imagination must choose the ending. Not a naïve ending, not a convenient one—but a deliberate horizon where the South is no longer a backdrop, the North no longer a tyrant, and technology no longer a prophecy—only a canvas, still open to the colors of possibility.

As Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie warned us, “The danger of a single story is not that it is untrue, but that it is incomplete.” This essay, then, is a refusal to let the future be written by a single story—whether crafted by the North’s algorithms or the South’s nostalgia. Our task is to multiply the stories, to widen the horizon of possibility, and to ensure that the next chapter of civilization is not inherited but co-authored.

Tuhu Nugraha
Tuhu Nugraha
Digital Business & Metaverse Expert Principal of Indonesia Applied Economy & Regulatory Network (IADERN)