Something rather unusual happened this April. CSIS, a Washington-based leading US think tank on foreign affairs, suggested in an article its website carried on April 8 that “African leaders should embrace BRICS countries.” The CSIS advice to African nations was triggered by the Trump administration’s imposition of over 50% tariffs on 53 African countries in the April 2 announcement on the grounds of “exploiting” the US. Many of these countries are among the world’s poorest nations. What was particularly “shocking” is CSIS is no ordinary US think tank, it enjoys the rare distinction of being regularly called upon by the Congress for recommendations to improve US strategy.
Take for example Lesotho, one of the world’s poorest African countries; more than half of its 2.3 million people are living below the poverty line. A media report has claimed that Trump’s tariffs could affect 52,000 domestic jobs in Lesotho. The report further explained that Lesotho might have been punished for joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2019. Remember, the US mainstream media and many influential think tanks have argued that Africa’s growing participation in the BRI is giving China economic leverage for geopolitical gain in Africa. However, as reported, in 2024, US imports from Lesotho totaled $237.3 million, while China imported only about $30 million.
A New York Times report (August 1) entitled “How the Threat of Trump’s Highest Tariff Derailed an African Nation” inadvertently upholds what a Chinese scholar pointed out in mid-April: “With the U.S. retreating, China’s trade influence in Lesotho could potentially expand sevenfold. Ironically, even China may not have anticipated this opportunity.” What is worrying for America is this “unanticipated” opportunity for China is being created by the US in almost every part of the world. Not surprisingly, similar headlines have been dominating the media narrative in recent months. Citing Pew survey data, AL JAZEERA published a commentary in mid-July, warning that the US was losing ground to China due to Trump’s policies.
‘Losing China’
In some ways the shock in the US establishment on hearing in October 1949 that Mao Zedong (Mao Tse-tung) had proclaimed communist rule in Beijing (Peking) is being re-experienced today among the US political elites in Washington. The difference being then the shock was caused due to the US losing China to communism, currently it is the shocking realization that the US is losing to (communist) China. What is common, however, is that in both instances the fear of communist China became a crucial factor in molding and in formulating the US policy towards Asia in general and China policy in particular.
It is in this above context that it was true then, as it is now, what Ryan Hass, former director for China in the US National Security Council, in his 2021 book, Stronger: Adapting America’s China Strategy in an Age of Competitive Interdependence, recently wrote of the US policy on China: “The US needs an Asia strategy for dealing with China, rather than a China strategy for Asia.” This, for the simple reason that “dealing with China” is a key US strategic issue as relevant today as it was 75 years ago. Some in the US say “Who lost China?” is an old question still alive today. The American Spectator, in an article under the “China Watch” section in its 100th anniversary issue last December, claimed the question “who lost China” must be acknowledged in order to successfully meet the challenge of the Chinese Communist Party today.
It is of import that many in the US still believe the “loss of China to Communism” is one of the great tragedies of the past century, and the key question that rapidly emerges from any study of the Chinese Civil War is “Who lost China?” Anne W. Carroll, author of the long essay cited above, regretfully admits that among various reasons offered in the media and in academia over the past seven decades or so, a lot has been written ultimately blaming Chiang Kai-shek and the KMT “for China that was not ours to lose,” but very little has been talked about when it comes to either ignoring the US role or failure and in exonerating the US.
‘Losing to China’
A dozen years ago, the cover of a book, entitled Eclipse, carried a picture that later became known as an iconic image, showing the US President Barack Obama bowing to the visiting Chinese leader Hu Jintao. When asked about the choice of the picture on the book cover, its author, a former Harvard economics professor and IMF official, Arvind Subramanian, replied, “Although it’s a bit unfair because President Obama was really trying to be courteous, not obsequious. But I hope it encapsulates and captures the main theme of my book.” It was more than twelve years ago—well before “the US started losing ground to China due to President Donald Trump’s policies.”
Moreover, this was also a time when President Xi Jinping had not yet ascended on the political scene in Beijing and declared that China no longer needed to bid its time. But as economist Subramanian had claimed in his book in 2012, it was the scholars in the West—and not the scholars in mainland China—who first declared that the US was in decline. However, there is a huge turnaround in the Chinese attitudes a little over a decade later. Today, in a rare departure from its non-condescending tone on the United States, China’s state news agency, Xinhua, in a signed commentary early last month, asked, “Why is the US losing its appeal?”
In reply to its own question, the commentary contrasted China’s growing global appeal as against the concurrent decline of the United States’ international image. More significantly, the Xinhua article emphasized that international perceptions increasingly favor a “cooler” China over a “less inspiring” America. The unmistaken similar tone was reflected in a signed guancha.com commentary, which, citing a report in the Party mouthpiece, People’s Daily, proudly declared China’s import and export of goods trade during the first half of this year reached a record high of 21.79 trillion yuan. Mainly three reasons were offered as explanation for this “new calling card” for China’s foreign trade: export of Chinese-manufactured EVs, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells.
To conclude, is the US declining? Or, as the Chinese would say, is the US declining fast? Five years ago, Martin Wolf refuted in his FT column as wrong the claim by Jude Blanchette from the CSIS that “the Chinese leadership is convinced that the US is in irreversible decline.” A year later, the FT published another report saying Beijing was wrong to think that the US was facing inevitable decline. Then in September 2023, the Financial Times carried a feature, headlined “Is China in decline, and what does that mean for the United States?”
As the flip-flop in the West continues on whether the US is or isn’t declining, the media and the political elite in China have been consistent in upholding the view that the US decline is not only inevitable but also worryingly fast. Besides the Xinhua and People’s Daily reports cited above—the two most authoritative official Chinese Party and government sources—the CPC most recently asserted that the US is “dysfunctional” and its (the US) time has come.”
No wonder, in reply to the US scholars lamenting “how did we lose to China,” the People’s Daily (in its August 1 commentary cited above) offered them a history lesson, saying, “Look back 60 years of China and you will know.” But the Xinhua article mentioned above was more hard-hitting and forthcoming. Juxtaposing the US decline with China rising, it (the Xinhua) said, “The Chinese path remains viable precisely because the CPC is committed to public service, not private interests.” Xinhua, citing a US economist, further added, “[China’s] is a whole different way of thinking about what an economy is for: either the economy serves the people, or the people serve the economy.”
