U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term began with unpredictable strategies and blackmailing, even towards long-term allies such as the EU and UK. Historically, Republican presidents have had more policy attachment towards India than Democratic presidents. But the present Republican President Trump is displaying unequal treatment towards India. Hence, it is a challenging time for India-U.S. policymakers.
In the last two decades or so since the disintegration of the USSR, India’s search for a Western partner ended in finding the U.S. as its new friend. Further, India’s complete tilt towards the U.S. over successive administrations made India and the U.S. become strategic partners in defense, science and tech, space, trade, education, and many more areas. Nevertheless, this hard-won friendship has become endangered because of the present administration’s first year.
Trump last year was wasteful; there were no big takings in India and U.S. relations. Reciprocal tariff threats continue and impede a trade deal between the two democracies. Let us analyze how India’s policymakers responded to the Trump administration and its impacts upon relations.
The historic formation of the India-U.S. partnership in defense and technology caused New Delhi to reduce its defense procurement with Russia and divert resources towards the U.S., Israel, and France. This outreach of India’s diversification in defense procurements is concerning in Moscow. Russia’s changed, seeking new strategies. Moscow is now reaching out to China’s all-weather friend Islamabad, India’s archrival. Without strategic thought, the rushed surrender of Modi’s administration to especially comply with the Trump administration is a serious setback to India’s foreign policy and diplomacy. India should understand that any of our closeness with the U.S. should not be at the cost of Russia.
In this present scenario, India is facing numerous challenges. Trump is strongly threatening the BRICS nations—including India—with additional tariffs. The presidents of China and Russia did not attend the BRICS summit in Brazil. While India’s policy pushes New Delhi close to Washington, China and Russia are getting very close in the shadow of the Russia-Ukraine war. So, India is in a situation where it is unable to enjoy its relations with either the US or Russia.
Meanwhile, India had no say in the Saudi Arabian-led negotiation in Riyadh between the U.S. and Russia to end the Ukraine war in March 2025. This is the case despite New Delhi’s closeness with Moscow and despite India being able to boast the world’s fourth-largest economy in GDP. The U.S. condemned the recent terror attack in Pahalgam but did not mention Pakistan. Following the ‘Sindoor Operation,’ the ceasefire between India and Pakistan was achieved bilaterally, even after Modi had said no third party was involved in stopping the war. However, Trump repeatedly said that it was his intervention that ended the conflict between the two nuclear powers. This clearly displays India’s diplomatic weakness in strengthening India’s position.
The George W. Bush doctrine was to de-hyphenate U.S. policy between India and Pakistan during Dr. Manmohan Singh’s era. However, since 2016 this has been gradually hyphenated under Modi’s administration. India and Pakistan are often combined in a single phrase in Trump’s policy speeches. Treating India and Pakistan equally is a mad decision for the U.S. to enjoy its relations with India. Here, India fails miserably to thwart the approach of Trump. Moreover, Pakistan Military General Asim Munir was invited by Trump to the White House. This also went against India’s wish.
Meanwhile, China is very closely watching the ongoing bilateral trade negotiation between India and the U.S. The delays in getting a deal between both countries are a concern to India’s business leaders. Trump suggested a 26% tariff for India in April and a 90-day suspension on reciprocal tariffs from July to August 1 for its trading partners, including India. However, Indian policy makers feel that New Delhi should not be treated in this way by Washington. It is very clear that both democracies have strong bilateral ties in various fields, but it is disappointing news to New Delhi that there is no tariff exception for India under the Trump administration. However, Trump said that soon the U.S. will have a trade deal with India. Moreover, the recent action of adding the ‘The Resistance Force’ (TRF) to the terror list by the U.S. for the Pahalgam strike is a bit of comfort for India’s diplomacy.
However, the growing tensions in the Middle East, the unending Russian-Ukrainian war, and Trump’s threatening tariff are making the international system more complex and vulnerable. Additionally, Burkina Faso’s President Ibrahim Traore’s interest in Russian relations concerns France and the EU. Further, the steadfast Russia-China ties and a new direction in Russia-Pakistan relations are a new headache for India.
India-US relations in the first year of the Trump administration were wasted amidst handshaking and posing for media bites. Modi’s hasty meeting with Trump in February this year could have been avoided. Dr. Subramanian Swamy opined, “Modi has made a very bad choice in going to the U.S. to meet President Trump at this juncture.” If India had postponed the Prime Minister’s visit to the U.S., it would have given leverage for New Delhi to negotiate a trade deal with Washington. Xi Jinping or Vladimir Putin never rushed to meet the U.S. president.
After the meeting with Modi, Trump repeatedly said that India’s tariff policy was not acceptable. Unlike his predecessors, billionaire Trump does not treat India as an equal partner. India’s response to Trump is also diplomatically weak. Thus, it is difficult to see how both countries will move forward under the Trump administration for the next three years.
