China could play a major role in de-escalating the conflict between Israel and Iran, as China is currently the most important party to mediate between Israel and Iran to halt Israeli attacks on Tehran and halt Iranian retaliation deep inside Tel Aviv. On a personal, academic, and analytical level, I presented a more comprehensive approach through my analysis on the “Modern Diplomacy” website for global political analyses several months ago, which is that China will play a mediating role between Israel and Iran to resolve the differences between them in preparation for establishing comprehensive regional and international peace between all parties, with the possibility of a comprehensive peace agreement between Iran and Israel under Chinese sponsorship and the opening of an Israeli embassy in the capital, Tehran, and similarly the opening of an Iranian embassy in Tel Aviv. Because, in my view as an academic specialized and internationally known in Chinese political affairs, China is the only most credible party that all parties can rely on in formulating a comprehensive peace agreement between its parties, in accordance with the initiative launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping known as the Global Security Initiative, whose provisions are based on China adopting a comprehensive approach in managing all conflicts and crises around the world in preparation for resolving and mediating them, in accordance with the principle of South-South dialogue that China sponsors and adopts to advance countries. The developing global South, with China as its leader, responsible and global supporter, as the world’s largest developing country.
On the other hand, most Middle Eastern countries support China’s new global role, although achieving China’s vision for global security in the Middle East is not without challenges in the long term due to the deep-rooted differences between its parties, most notably the Arab-Israeli conflict and the Iranian-Israeli conflict. Satisfactory solutions to the crises in the Middle East require diplomatic, geopolitical, and security consensus between China, Iran, Israel, and all Arab, Islamic, and Gulf states. Furthermore, they require a more decisive Chinese position on the turbulent and confusing events in the region to preserve China’s interests in global trade flows and maintain the security of global maritime navigation, maritime transport, and logistics through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab Al-Mandab Strait, which are controlled by Iran, and through the Egyptian Suez Canal.
Here, China is considered a reliable partner for most countries in the region, playing a more active role in helping manage regional unrest and mediating various conflicts. This is especially true given that Beijing does not bear the historical burdens of its Western counterparts and that American influence, particularly in the Middle East, is suffering as a result of its association with the Israeli role in the region, especially after the Israeli destruction of the Gaza Strip, which has caused the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Gazans since the start of the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. China has attempted to offer several proposals to stop the war on Gaza, bringing together Hamas and Fatah and calling on the UN Security Council to de-escalate the conflict. Beijing also seized the opportunity of its meetings with Arab and Gulf foreign ministers to reaffirm the various peace plans it had previously proposed. Chinese President Xi Jinping defined China’s approach to the Middle East, stating that “China is committed to determining its policies and taking actions toward the Middle East based on the facts of the issues themselves and based on the fundamental interests of the peoples of the region.” We work to advise reconciliation and encourage negotiations, but we do not appoint agents. We make efforts to form a circle of friends for the Belt and Road Initiative that covers everyone.”
China has enough influence leverage, especially with Israel, to play the role of a trusted mediator in this conflict. Particularly, both Israel and the United States are also counting on the role Beijing can play at the present time to stop the mutual attacks between Iran and Israel, especially since the Israeli army does not expect Iran’s response in the heart of Tel Aviv to be this violent and precise, targeting targets inside Israel itself. China can also play a dual role in calming the war between Israel and Hamas by working towards a comprehensive reconciliation with all political factions supported by Iran, China’s ally, such as Hamas, the Iranian-backed Houthi militia, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. China’s Special Envoy for Middle East Peace, Zhai Jun, can play this role by negotiating with all these concerned parties in preparation for a comprehensive reconciliation between all parties under Chinese sponsorship, support, and guidance. This is especially true after the United States requested, at the beginning of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” war between Hamas and Israel on October 7, 2023, to use China’s influence to prevent the conflict from expanding. Washington also hopes that China’s friendship with Iran, which supports Hamas and other movements, will contribute to calming the conflict, especially after Beijing previously sponsored an agreement to improve relations between Tehran and Riyadh.
China has sufficient influence to exert some influence over Tel Aviv. In this regard, we can refer to a lengthy report published by the Israeli Channel 12 website on the importance of strengthening Israeli-Chinese relations, not only to confront the Iranian threat, but also to, as the Israeli channel called it, keep pace with the “new global trend” being shaped by China, especially in the field of high technology. The Channel 12 report discussed this analysis of the most important fundamental variables that Israel considers in its calculations for relations with China, primarily the field of entrepreneurship, including the motivations and challenges facing these relations with Beijing. The Israeli side is already interested in mapping policies of interest to Israeli decision-makers in order to strengthen the position of the Israeli economy on the global map through economic rapprochement with China, while supporting the file of entrepreneurship and small and medium enterprises in Israel through cooperation with China.
Accordingly, Israel desperately needs China to support its infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, tunnels, desalination plants, cables, solar panels, and land and sea ports, knowing that 90% of Israel’s trade is linked to the Mediterranean and Red Seas, given Beijing’s overwhelming presence and influence with its ally, Iran, to protect shipping and the maritime straits controlled by Iran through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, in addition to China’s relationship with Egypt and its influence through the Egyptian Suez Canal. Tel Aviv can rely heavily on China’s influence to advance its interests and prevent its trade and commercial activity in the region.
There are many factors that shape Beijing’s current positioning in the conflict between Israel and Iran, the most important of which is the safety of its citizens on both sides. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, through its embassies and consulates general in both Iran and Israel, is currently working to arrange urgent procedures for the evacuation of Chinese citizens from both Iran and Israel amid escalating tensions between Tel Aviv and Tehran. Chinese authorities immediately activated their emergency response mechanism and urged both Israel and Iran to ensure the safety of Chinese citizens and institutions. Chinese authorities also issued alerts and instructions, maintaining continuous communication with Chinese citizens and organizations in the region to implement safety measures for their citizens. This has already resulted in the safe evacuation of some Chinese citizens to neighboring countries.
China is also concerned about statements made in a video clip purportedly by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in which he asserts that Israel will destroy nuclear-armed Islamic states that are not allied with Israel, most notably Iran and Pakistan. In this context, China may come to Iran’s aid if Israel attempts to spread complete chaos within Iran, paving the way for a plan to divide Iranian territory into spheres of influence and several states for ethnic, religious, and sectarian minorities. Beijing fears this, both to preserve the unity and integrity of Iranian territory and to fear US-Israeli intelligence planning to establish a “Kurdistan state” along the borders of Iran, Syria, Iraq, and Turkey. This would harm Chinese interests and create a parallel state in the region loyal to Israel, the United States, and the West. In my view, Beijing will not act alone at the present time but rather through its close ally, Pakistan, with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the Pakistani port of Gwadar, which has massive Chinese investments. China already has a presence in this conflict. The ongoing war is a proxy war between China and the United States to destroy Iran, China’s ally, while Tel Aviv acts as a proxy army for America. Pakistan is a strong economic ally of China, in addition to being a nuclear power like Iran. In this context, we can refer to the Pakistani side’s statement that if Israel uses nuclear weapons on Iranian territory, it will respond in kind. It should be noted that Israel, through the individuals and sites it targeted inside Iran, is attempting to influence the internal political situation there. From a military perspective, the Israeli military strike aimed to reduce the level of military capabilities and potential of Tehran, China’s successor. This necessitates direct protection from China for its Iranian ally, perhaps through an alliance with Pakistan.
China is well aware that the goal behind the Israeli attacks on Iran is not the Iranian nuclear program itself, as claimed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu is primarily wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes in Gaza because Tehran does not possess sufficient enriched uranium to produce nuclear weapons. Herein lies the true objective behind Israel’s current unjustified attack on Iran, a desperate attempt by Netanyahu to escape from his internal crises. This is because the Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip has reached a dead end, in addition to the pressure Netanyahu is under from the opposition and demonstrations against his domestic policies.
On the other hand, there are numerous economic and diplomatic risks facing China if it assumes the role I mentioned earlier in resolving the ongoing Israeli-Iranian conflict. Furthermore, if China were to intervene and participate in the conflict, it could be considered a challenge to US influence in the region, which could have implications for Beijing’s broader foreign policy objectives. There are also numerous risks facing China if it is perceived as overly biased toward Iran, and this could potentially impact its relations in the Middle East as a whole. Considering that China has expressed its explicit support for Iran in the face of Israeli attacks, condemning what it described as a flagrant Israeli violation of international law. All official Chinese statements and declarations affirm Beijing’s support for Tehran in defending its legitimate rights and interests and ensuring the security and safety of its people, according to official statements issued by the Chinese Foreign Ministry. At the same time, China rejected the statement, stating that “Israel’s actions severely violate the basic norms governing international relations” and that the recent Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities set a dangerous precedent with potentially disastrous repercussions for the entire international community and the stability of the Middle East. The repercussions of the confrontation would not be limited to Iran and Israel alone but would extend to the security and political structures of the entire Middle East.
There is also genuine Chinese concern that an Israeli military strike on Iran could affect the stability of energy supply routes in the Middle East and China’s projects through the Belt and Road Initiative, reflecting Beijing’s current priority of protecting its trade routes. The continuation of the conflict between Israel and Iran could harm China’s economic interests, as it is the largest importer of foreign oil, particularly from Iran, even under US sanctions. Therefore, it is concerned about the potential impact of the escalating war in the Middle East on its oil supply and the wages of workers in this sector. This is because Iran sells its oil at a low price. Therefore, any Israeli raid targeting Iranian oil facilities could force China to rely more heavily on another, more costly, exporter, such as Saudi Arabia. Saudi shipments could also be intercepted in the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea due to missile attacks launched by Iran or the Iranian-backed Houthi militia, which Iran supports in Yemen.
Iran, in turn, represents a lucrative source of energy for China, an important market, and a central location on the route to Europe. No less important, it represents a strategic challenge to America in the Middle East, similar to what North Korea represents for it in East Asia. For this reason, China fears a wide-scale expansion and duration of the war between Israel and Iran. A major war in the region could threaten China’s commercial interests in the Middle East, especially given China’s massive investments, amounting to billions of dollars, in energy and infrastructure projects in the region, particularly in Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Israel is also among the countries that have received significant Chinese investments, despite China’s support for the Palestinian cause. Accordingly, an expansion of the Israeli-Iranian conflict could harm China’s approach through its Belt and Road Initiative, which is not concerned with politics. Through this initiative, China has sought to present itself in the region as an economic and investment power uninterested in interfering in regional affairs but rather as a power seeking to enhance its image in developing countries and the developing countries of the Global South, which view China as a power equal to America in terms of weight and influence.
Finally, there are many broader implications if the conflict between Israel and Iran worsens into a regional conflagration, because there are fears that an Israeli attack on Iran could lead to a comprehensive and large-scale military war in the region, especially after Iranian leaders threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz to global trade following the Israeli aggression against it. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important oil arteries, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Approximately 20 million barrels of oil and its derivatives pass through it daily, representing about one-fifth of global oil shipments. Any attempt to close it would impact global energy markets. The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran is placing increasing pressure on relations around the world, including between major powers. China, along with Russia, is also expected to block any UN resolutions criticizing Iran in the wake of the Israeli strikes on Iran and oppose any use of force against it.
If the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates across multiple fronts, China believes it has the right to assist its close Iranian ally, especially given that China maintains close strategic and economic ties with Iran. China is the largest importer of Iranian oil, particularly in light of US sanctions imposed on Tehran. Meanwhile, Beijing has adopted a cautious stance toward Israel, despite the growing trade relations between the two sides. This Chinese diplomatic effort to de-escalate tensions between Iran and Israel stems from fears that the war could expand regionally and internationally. This is particularly true in light of escalating international positions, with speculation that Britain, the United States, and France could join the war on Israel’s front against Iran. A number of Western countries are considering several options to support Israel militarily, while Iran has warned that any Western intervention could be met with a direct response against its bases spread across the Middle East, especially those American military bases deployed on several fronts in the region.
On the other hand, there is a worrying trend in the military-security field in Israel regarding the growing military relations between China and Iran, with the increase in military, technological, intelligence, and security cooperation between them. Furthermore, the transfer of Chinese military technology, used by Iran to develop and produce weapons systems, is viewed by Israel as potentially harmful. This was exemplified by the Chinese cluster missiles launched by Hezbollah towards Israel. The public indications of growing military cooperation between China and Iran are also multiplying, such as joint military exercises, visits to ports and straits, and visits by naval, military, and security officials, a matter that both Washington and Tel Aviv fear regarding the growing military relations between China and Iran. Especially with Beijing’s expanding training of Iranian forces in naval combat and China supplying its Iranian ally with anti-ship missiles, Israel views them as a direct threat in the Mediterranean and Red Seas. At the same time, the Gulf states fear the growth of Iranian military power with Chinese assistance in confronting them, in addition to the United States’ own concerns due to its fleets and military bases deployed in the Middle East and the Western Pacific.
Here, Israel and the Gulf states believe that Chinese assistance to Tehran reinforces the direct threat to the security of both Israel and the Gulf from Iran, enhances its capabilities, and expands its ability to target Israel, both directly and indirectly, through the “proxy warfare” project, most notably Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi militia in Yemen, and Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq.
