Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukraine war, Russia has repeatedly struck Ukrainian Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) by launching missile salvos beyond the front lines. According to Russian firepower patterns and trends published by CSIS, Russia has launched 24.3 missiles and drones per day at Ukraine. Pervasive use of standoff weapons by Russia in Ukraine to execute its non-contact warfare rings alarm bells for European NATO allies. Excessive reliance of European nations on Washington for providing deep strike capabilities against Russia has sponsored a capability gap: lack of long-range strike options. Furthermore, Trump’s disdain for bearing the financial burden of European defense is weakening the trans-Atlantic alliance and pushing European countries to find indigenous solutions.
The missile renaissance in Europe is driven by evolving geopolitical shifts and the ever-growing consideration for reassessing the salience of long-range conventional weapons. Accounting for the aforementioned imperatives, in 2024 France, Germany, Italy, and Poland initiated the European Long-Range Strike Approach, colloquially called the ELSA project. Recently, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and the Netherlands have joined this project. This project was aimed to fill the aforementioned capability gap by indigenously developing long-range conventional strike options (having ranges more than 500 km). Earlier, the INF treaty banned the deployment and development of missiles in ranges between 500 and 5500 km. However, after the collapse of the INF treaty, there is a lot of traction for developing missiles in these ranges. According to a report published by IISS, European countries possess air- and sea-launched cruise missiles; however, no European NATO member has a ground-launched cruise missile having a range of more than 300km except Turkey.
As per the official announcement of the ELSA project concluded at the NATO summit 2024, no specific details were revealed about the kind, range, and launch platforms of missiles being envisioned.
In order to contemplate the future developmental trajectories related to this project, the defense-industrial base, current development projects, strategies, and statements of national leaders of participating countries in the ELSA project will be analyzed.
French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has placed a heavy premium on the ELSA project for strengthening the European deterrence. He further contended that joint collaboration among the European partners will reduce the cost and anchor the European defense industrial base while promoting strategic autonomy. France has a sophisticated and diverse technological base for developing ground-launched long-range cruise missiles. Among the various contenders, MBDA France positions itself as the lead actor for developing long-range strike options due to expertise in system design, guidance and control, and integration of missiles on the various delivery platforms. Furthermore, the development of Storm Shadow (a subsonic cruise missile) by MBDA France strengthens its portfolio for developing long-range cruise missiles. Additionally, MBDA France is currently working on the SCALP Naval (a cruise missile launched from naval platforms having a range of 1000km). While modifying SCALP Naval to the ground launch configurations, MBDA France can play a substantive role in the development of next-gen long-range cruise missiles.
Germany’s technological prowess in missile development and political will for acquiring long-range cruise missiles make it a key player in implementing the ELSA project. MBDA Deutschland has developed Taurus KEPD 350 in a joint venture with Saab Dynamics AB (Swedish). The Taurus KEPD 350 is Europe’s most reliable and battlefield-tested long cruise missile, capable of engaging targets up to 500 km away. Furthermore, MBDA Deutschland and Saab Dynamics are developing Tauruso, which has a said range of 700km. Accounting for the fact that Germany has already fielded mobile launchers, tailoring Taurus missiles to ground-launched configurations will not be a daunting task, thus contributing to the ELSA project.
During the 2024 NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels, UK’s defense secretary John Healey endorsed its participation in the ELSA project. Very recently, a statement made by the British government reflected that Britain and Germany have agreed to develop “deep precision strike” weapons capable of engaging targets up to 2000 km away. In the midst of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the UK and Germany signed a bilateral defense agreement, the Trinity House Agreement, to bolster European defense by developing missiles having longer ranges and greater accuracy. Alongside, the UK and the EU have agreed to develop and foster a security and defense partnership for ensuring European defense, in particular assisting Ukraine. Furthermore, the UK is also participating in the DIAMOND initiative, which aims to integrate the air defenses of various European countries.
Last year, Sweden signed the letter of intent to join the ELSA project. However, as reflected in the statements of Swedish Defence Minister Pål Jonson, Sweden is more interested in developing long-range strike options for its air and naval platforms.
To fill the capability gap pertaining to long-range conventional strike options, either ballistic or cruise missiles, the ELSA initiative is a welcoming move, although underlying impediments need to be addressed to ensure the smooth implementation of this envisioned project.
As of now, the ELSA initiative is in the conceptual or design phase. No specific details were delineated through official announcements about the developmental trajectories related to this project. Accounting for the pervasive use of subsonic and hypersonic Land Attack Cruise Missiles (LACMs) and Short-Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBMs) by Russia in Ukraine, it is likely that European countries will be mulling over developing similar options. However, competing and contrasting preferences of various stakeholders will be a challenge for formulating the developmental trajectories of this project. Two of the factors that act as a catalyst for further widening the preferences of participating members include varying threat perceptions and qualitative differences pertaining to the defense-industrial sectors.
This cooperative missile development initiative will definitely reduce the development costs; however, it will be interesting to observe how European countries will fulfill their existing orders of standoff weapons and ensure uninterrupted funding for the ELSA project.
