India’s response against Pakistan this week follows last month’s deadly attack when Pakistani terrorists fired on a group of Indian tourists in Kashmir. India launched “Operation Sindoor” in the early hours of Wednesday morning local time in both Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Indian officials said the operation targeted “terrorist infrastructure” belonging to two militant groups—Lashkar-e-Tayyiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed. Each side has been preparing for potential war as they stand on the brink of a broader conflict.
India’s Union Home Secretary Govind Mohan reviewed preparations for strengthening civil defense mechanisms that include conducting mock drills on air-raid warning sirens, training civilians to protect themselves in the event of a “hostile attack,” and cleaning bunkers and trenches.
The United Nations Security Council discussed rising tensions between India and Pakistan at closed-door consultations where envoys called for de-escalation and dialogue. The 15-member UNSC did not issue a statement after the meeting.
The tensions between Pakistan and India must be understood in the context of their longstanding geopolitical rivalry—among the most enduring and complex in the world today. Since their independence from British colonial rule in 1947, both countries have had to contend with their historical, political, religious, and territorial realities.
British India was partitioned into two independent states: India, with a Hindu majority, and Pakistan, created as a homeland for Muslims. Religion has played a significant role in shaping the Pakistan-India rivalry. These differing national identities have fueled mutual hatred. In Pakistan, India is portrayed as a threat to Muslim identity, while in India, Pakistan is seen as a destabilizing force rooted in religious extremism. The rise of Hindu nationalism in India and the influence of religious conservatism in Pakistan have further strained relations, making reconciliation more challenging.
These differences immediately created the foundation for future conflict. The partition itself took place in a tornado of widespread violence, mass migration, and the deaths of millions. The arbitrary border division, particularly in the areas of Bengal and Punjab, for instance, resulted in deep emotional scars and unresolved grievances to this day. This historical trauma has affected both nations, and today we continue to see the spillover of violence from this poorly planned partition.
Kashmir stands as the major flashpoint of contention between the two nations. This region, in the northern part of the Indian subcontinent, was ruled by a Hindu maharaja but with a Muslim-majority population. The maharaja’s decision to accede to India in 1947, following an invasion by tribal militias supported by Pakistan, sparked the first Indo-Pakistani war (1947–1948).
Today, India administers the southern part of Kashmir, while Pakistan controls the northern areas. Both nations claim the entire region, and the ongoing dispute has led to multiple wars and numerous skirmishes along the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto border in Kashmir.
The Kashmiri population itself is divided, with some seeking independence, others favoring integration with Pakistan, and others preferring to remain with India.
The revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special autonomy by India in 2019, which stripped the region of its semi-autonomous status, intensified tensions, with Pakistan condemning the move as a violation of international norms.
Aside from history and religion, modern geopolitical realities today contribute to the rivalry between the two nations—both of which are nuclear powers. The presence of nuclear arsenals has led to a delicate balance of deterrence but also increases the risk of escalation during crises. This raises the stakes in any future conflict, and this is one of the main reasons to ensure both nations refrain from all-out war.
Pakistan and India also compete for regional influence in South Asia. India’s growing economic and military power, coupled with its strategic partnerships with countries like the United States, has raised concerns in Pakistan, which perceives itself as encircled. Pakistan’s close alliance with China, particularly through initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), is seen by India as a counterbalance to its regional ambitions, further complicating the dynamic.
Cross-border terrorism doesn’t help. India accuses Pakistan of supporting militant groups that carry out attacks on Indian soil, such as the 2008 Mumbai attacks, the 2019 Pulwama attack, and now the recent attack in Pahalgam. These incidents only exacerbate tensions, derail peace efforts, and deepen mistrust.
The ongoing tensions have significant economic and social consequences for both nations. Defense spending consumes substantial portions of their budgets, diverting resources from development and poverty alleviation. Trade between the two countries, which could benefit their economies, remains minimal due to political hostilities. The constant state of alertness along the border, particularly in Kashmir, also takes a toll on civilian populations, who face displacement, violence, and economic hardship.
Despite the entrenched rivalry, there have been attempts at dialogue and peacebuilding. Initiatives like the Lahore Declaration (1999) and the Agra Summit (2001) aimed to foster cooperation, but these efforts have often been undermined by subsequent conflicts or domestic opposition. The United Nations has maintained a presence in Kashmir through the UN Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP), but its role is largely symbolic. People-to-people exchanges, such as cultural and sporting events, have occasionally provided glimpses of goodwill, but these are fleeting in the face of larger political disputes.
Looking at the conflict today, nothing will change soon. Both sides will engage in saber-rattling, India will be satisfied with its retaliation for the terror attack, and the region will return to a heightened state of tension. Until a lasting peace agreement can be achieved, the Pakistan-India relationship will likely remain one of the world’s most volatile geopolitical challenges.
