Russia and the Taliban are now bringing their positions closer together in the legal and official fields. The days before, the Russian Supreme Court decided to suspend the activities of the Taliban. Consequently, the Afghan movement is no longer a terrorist organization and is banned in Russia. Moscow’s decision was quite expected. I wrote about the imminent lifting of the ban and the exclusion of the movement from the list of terrorists when the Taliban came to power and reincarnated the Emirate in Afghanistan. Moreover, I wrote about such dynamics and the inevitability of the Taliban’s victory and the corresponding emergence of a demand and need to legalize their status about ten years ago. At that time, American and NATO troops were still present on Afghan soil, and no one expected any victory for the Taliban.
The international structure determines political processes. After the withdrawal of American troops, the victory of the Taliban became inevitable. The Taliban turned out to be the most powerful military and political organization in the country and the region. Thanks to their systemic policy, military and organizational qualities, and cruelty, the Taliban managed to win a twenty-year war against a powerful technological enemy. Of course, Russia and other countries understand that the Taliban remains a radical extremist organization that has used terrorism as a method of struggle in its history. Of course, Moscow has never supported this and has condemned it in every possible way. It was precisely because of the radicalism of the Taliban that they were banned in Russia and included in the list of terrorist organizations.
As is known, there is no single list of terrorist organizations in the world. There is also no single understanding of the term “terrorism”. Each great power and major regional force has its view on what should be understood by terrorism and what should not. Of course, this understanding is dictated by political expediency and its knowledge of its national interests. Thus, the great powers Russia, China, the United States, and India have different ideas about which groups should be considered terrorists and which should not. The same is true for regional powers such as Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Egypt.
Russia, based on logic that can be called quite rational. Moscow considers those groups terrorists that threaten its national interests, carry out or have carried out, planned or are planning terrorist attacks against Russia or its allies. This also includes radical organizations that are recognized as terrorists by the majority of permanent member countries of the UN Security Council. Thus, when Moscow removed the Taliban from the terrorist list, this can be regarded as the normalization and legalization of bilateral relations. The Taliban are the government of Afghanistan, and not having normal, legal, and open relations with it would be irrational.
Russian diplomacy has always sought to have relations with the official authorities and limited itself to contacts with the opposition. This has always been perceived by Moscow as an element of interference in internal affairs. The Taliban is the government in Afghanistan. Therefore, Moscow is building logical and official relations with it. The interests have two components. Firstly, there are still quite a few terrorist groups in the Afghan provinces. Russia, in turn, has a visa-free regime in Central Asia, which borders Afghanistan. The latest terrorist attacks in Russia were carried out by people from this region. Therefore, the Russian dialogue with the Taliban, as the leaders of the country, is aimed at a joint fight against the terrorist threat. Secondly, Moscow is interested in economic relations with Afghanistan. Trade and infrastructure projects of the two countries have a certain potential for development.
No less important is the fact that the Taliban has become much more independent and self-sufficient. This mainly concerns the relations of the leaders of the radical Pashtun movement with the Pakistani military. It is well known that Islamabad stood behind the creation of the Taliban. For a long time, it was the Pakistani military that was the main mentors and sponsors of the radical movement. Moreover, the Pakistani military trained, protected, and sponsored the most radical elements within the large Taliban movement, for example, the Haqqani Network. With the capture of Kabul and the establishment of the Islamic Emirate regime, the Taliban’s relations with Pakistan began to deteriorate. The new leaders of Afghanistan no longer wanted to be “younger brothers” and indulge Pakistani military advisers in everything. Afghan-Pakistani relations are now at their lowest point in development and can be called quite conflictual. In recent years, there have been clashes with the use of weapons, shootouts, and casualties on both sides. In many ways, of course, the blame for the crisis in relations lies with the Pakistani side, which is trying to maintain control over the Taliban. However, the Taliban are now at the head of Afghanistan, and the Taliban are somewhat back in opposition to the pro-American regime of Ashraf Ghani – these are two different structures.
Thus, the normalization of Russian-Afghan relations, or more precisely, their legalization, is a rational and expected step. Moscow has close and fairly friendly relations with the leaders of Afghanistan. The Taliban, meanwhile, are striving to normalize their image and get out of diplomatic isolation. They have had some success in this. China and India have gained quite influential positions in the region in recent years. The two largest and richest powers are also striving to normalize relations. A stable and peaceful Afghanistan is beneficial to all parties.
