In the recent weeks there are various reports that mention the recent advances made by Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) against Paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). During the last two years, Sudan was in news headlines for its ongoing brutal civil war. While there are various institutional and ethnic dimensions to the ongoing civil war, it is important to observe that the role of many foreign players in the wider region and their cold geopolitical calculations are adding to the complexities and destructiveness of the ongoing conflict. The various foreign players that are taking part in the ongoing conflict in Sudan include the Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates. Their intertwined interests as well as clashes add to the complex geopolitics of the wider region.
Sudan’s role in the Iranian Axis of Resistance
Located at the crossroads of Arab-Islamic civilizations and Africa, Sudan shares a long border with Egypt and a long coast across the Red Sea. This geography is used by Iranian arm smuggling networks to smuggle arms and ammunition to Gaza. Iranian arms supplies, which reach Sudan through the Red Sea, are transferred by land via Sudan and Egypt and from there through Byzantine tunnel networks of Hamas to Gaza. In the list of ‘axis of resistance’ involving “3H” (Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis), Hamas remains an ideological and close ally of the Islamic Republic, and it is evident from the nature of aid, including arms and ammunition, including guns, missiles, and rockets, of Hamas, which shows the deep role of Iran. While the Gaza Strip shares a border with Israel, which is under heavy surveillance across land and sea borders, its border with Egypt remains a soft spot for Iran to smuggle arms and ammunition to the militant group. In this network of arms transfer lies the indirect role of Sudan. Iran’s long-standing relations with regimes in Sudan that are Islamist in orientation, like Al-Bashir, allowed this to flourish. Thus, Sudan under Al Bashir was an unofficial de facto link of the Iranian Axis of Resistance in the wider region. While the Bashir regime took a change in sides during the 2015 war in Yemen, the geographical importance of Sudan as a link to the wider Axis of Resistance remained. In 2009, Israel even bombed such a convoy in Sudan, and this shows how Sudan forms a wider part of the ongoing Iranian-Israeli proxy war.
Israel’s interests in the region
Since its independence in 1956, Sudan has always strongly identified itself closely with the wider Arab-Islamic cause, and this has made various Sudanese governments firm supporters of the Palestinian cause. Since its formation, Israel was always in search of partners, preferably non-Arab or non-Islamic. Situated in the heart of the hostile Arab world, Israel had an “Alliance of the Periphery,” which made overt and covert relationships with various non-Arab and non-Islamic regimes and groups across the region. While Khartoum remained a firm supporter of the Arab cause during both Sudanese civil wars, Israeli “Peripheral Alliance” policy manifested in Israeli aid to non-Arab, non-Muslim Southern Sudanese rebels who were waging war against Khartoum. Since 2011, when South Sudan gained its independence , it has resulted in the establishment of relations between Israel and South Sudan. The antipathy towards the Islamist Khartoum regime made Israeli-South Sudan relations strong. Since the independence of South Sudan in 2011 , Israel’s relationship with the regime in Juba has remained strong. It was seen in Israeli assistance to Juba in the Heglig crisis in 2013 and Israeli support to the regime of Salva Kirr in the following South Sudanese Civil War. As the youngest country in the world, Israeli investments in South Sudan are across various sectors like agriculture, infrastructure, and security relations. As an immediate neighbor of Sudan, South Sudan is strategically important to Israel, and it is related to Israel’s wider security perception across both Sudans.
United Arab Emirates in the region
The history of UAE-Sudanese relations can be traced to many decades, and throughout the period, the UAE has developed deep stakes in the economy of Sudan. UAE investments in the Sudanese agriculture and gold mining sector are huge. The relations deepened as the UAE enrolled mercenaries from the RSF into its Yemen war in 2015. The relations between Emirates and paramilitary leader Hemeti deepened, which is evident from Sudanese illegal gold exports to the UAE. During the onset of civil war, the UAE took a stand to assist the RSF, which was accused of various atrocities like genocide and other war crimes. The UAE’s interest in South Sudan has also grown and is evident from its US$ 13 billion investment in South Sudan. In totality, both Sudan(s) hold billions of dollars worth of UAE investment across various sectors like energy, agriculture, and gold, as well as its dependence on mercenaries from Sudan. This makes the UAE an important player in the political economy of both of these countries. The United Arab Emirates is now stepping up its role in Africa as an investor. This is also underlined by its intervention in supporting various non-state actors across regions like Libya, Somalia, and now Sudan to protect its various business and strategic interests.
How the Iran-Israel-UAE proxy war is shaping the geopolitics of the region
For the last three years, Sudan has been facing a civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Burhan. The rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is led by Muhammed Hamdan Dagolo (Hemeti). While the SAF consists of many members and sympathizers of earlier regimes that are Islamist in political orientation. Throughout the civil war, the SAF has received aid from countries such as Iran and Türkiye. Iranian assistance is manifested by the transfer of arms and ammunition, including military drones. Iran’s interests in Sudan include the survival of the SAF as well as acquiring ports in the Red Sea. With the fluidity of alliances, there are reports that Israel is aiding rival RSF through the sale of arms and other assistance. Geopolitical pragmatism had made Israel assist an “Alliance of Periphery 2.0” in the region, which included actors such as RSF and South Sudan, as a counter to the Iranian “Axis of Resistance.” In their public statements, RSF has removed its anti-Israeli stance and even sympathized with Israel during the war in Gaza in an indirect manner. In its public statements, RSF has condemned the “Islamist elements” in SAF. Another major supporter of RSF is the UAE. This is evident from the massive assistance provided by the UAE to the RSF through countries like Chad. Recent reports showing the support of the South Sudanese regime for the RSF using its territories underscore this. This is evident from the reports of UAE-constructed airstrips in South Sudan, which provide logistics to the RSF. This could be interpreted as an unofficial alliance between the UAE, Israel, South Sudan, and the RSF to thwart the success of the SAF-led regime. While there are reports of SAF successes in the recent weeks, RSF, despite being beaten down, is land-linked, not landlocked, with various countries like Chad, South Sudan, and the Central African Republic, which act as sources of fortune-searching mercenaries as well as piles of arms and ammunition.
Conclusion
While war is continuing in Sudan and tensions are brewing in South Sudan, it is pertinent to understand that these wars are connected and each country aids rebels in the other. While these porous borders and instability are used by various outside actors to foment ongoing instability. The major factors that keep on inflaming the third Sudanese civil war are the West Asian proxy war, as explained in previous paragraphs, and how regional countries like Chad and South Sudan become launching pads for foreign interests in the wider region. It is pertinent to end hostilities and to create conditions for the return of millions of uprooted people and to start efforts for reconciliation and reconstruction.
