The Asia-Pacific region represents a multifaceted landscape of economic, security, ethnic, cultural, and geographic diversity. Mackinder’s Heartland Theory, which emphasizes control over strategic geographic chokepoints as central to global power, underscores the tenet that the Asia-Pacific holds critical significance in global politics. Combined with rising geopolitical stakes and internal conflicts, the region has emerged as a pivotal arena for refocusing the subject of electronic warfare. The Attention has increasingly turned to leveraging intelligence to detect conflicts and crises through the signatures of electronic warfare activities.
The parallels of crisis early warnings can be drawn from the crisis in the Baltic Sea when the latest episode of Russia and Ukraine tensions started in the 2020s. There were reports of electronic warfare detected in maritime activities that impacted the Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) services and, at the same time, allowed stealth maritime and military operations for the instigator. These insights into brewing tensions—derived from signal disruptions and electronic interference—are now globally linked to conflict zones.
The Rising Nexus of Electronic Warfare and Geopolitics
Conflict zones such as Myanmar, where the junta military battles resurgent groups, hostilities in the Korean Peninsula, and the spillover of military confrontations along the India-Pakistan border, underscore the growing relevance of electronic warfare. The prominence of electronic warfare as military defense has been corroborated by the fact that the Myanmar junta military is instructing ground troops on using the signal jamming devices against the remotely controlled explosives operated by the opposition. Similarly, tensions over the South China Sea and Malacca Strait have correlated with intelligence identifying patterns of hostilities targeting PNT technologies in the form of electronic warfare. In conflict zones, electronic interference targeting PNT systems has become a low-cost strategic tool for undermining military capabilities. At the same time, these disruptions allow for illicit and stealth activities that are difficult to track and monitor. The unintentional impact of such electronic warfare, in the majority, has been propagated to the technologies used in civilian aircraft operations. Such effects can be traced through the global monitoring of the airspace, as in the cases of Bangkok and Yangon FIRs that have reported a number of incidents in the last couple of years.
In the context of growing electronic warfare, it is important to point out the origins and control structures of modern PNT systems based on the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) that reflect broader geopolitical dynamics. For example, the GPS, developed by the United States as a military initiative and still under military control, contrasts sharply with Galileo, the European Union’s civilian-controlled counterpart, and Beidou and GLONASS, managed by China and Russia, respectively. These systems exemplify the constructivist perspective, highlighting how strategic policymaking is shaped by the identities, narratives, and shared perceptions of global actors.
Sanctions Evasion in Maritime Trade
Maritime operations remain critical to global trade and economic flows, embodying the principles of Mahan’s Sea Power Theory, which highlights the importance of naval supremacy and control of maritime trade routes in achieving geopolitical dominance. The South China Sea, a vital part of the western Pacific Ocean, is a strategic chokepoint where approximately one-third of global maritime trade and 40% of petroleum products pass annually, as noted by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). This essential seaway funnels maritime traffic through the Malacca Strait, another chokepoint west of Singapore and Malaysia that connects to the Indian Ocean. However, the region’s strategic importance also attracts illicit activities such as robbery, blockages, and electronic warfare.
A growing concern is the manipulation of Automatic Identification Systems (AIS), a tactic increasingly used to evade international sanctions and mask clandestine operations. In the Asia-Pacific region, cargo vessels, oil tankers, and other maritime actors have employed AIS spoofing to obscure their movements, particularly around high-value oil terminals. Malaysia alone accounts for nearly 4% of recorded AIS spoofing incidents, highlighting the strategic use of such tactics to circumvent detection and facilitate unauthorized activities. According to the Asian maritime security report for Q4 2024, AIS spoofing has become a widespread method for disguising smuggling operations, particularly in the Singapore Strait. Additionally, waters off Eastern Malaysia are notorious for serving as hubs for oil storage and transfers, where vessels frequently disable their AIS or manipulate their signals.
The proxy wars in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have acted as hidden catalysts for the rise of electronic warfare in the Asia-Pacific. Primarily driven by the need to evade sanctions stemming from these conflicts, such tactics have extended their influence into the region, impacting the maritime trade routes and security dynamics. The Washington administration’s recent actions against the Yemeni Houthis, who have repeatedly obstructed maritime trade in the Red Sea through tactics including electronic signal jamming, highlight the critical role of maritime trade routes as hubs for military activity and electronic warfare.
In recent months, the Washington administration has adopted a protectionist approach, shifting away from neoliberal philosophies of laissez-faire and free-market fundamentalism. Coupled with the persistent threat of secondary tariffs, these dynamics exacerbate the use of electronic warfare tactics, such as AIS manipulation, to counter sanctions and maintain the flow of global trade. The intensification of such strategies reflects an evolving geopolitical landscape where technological manipulation plays a key role in circumventing economic and political sanctions.
Implications on the Power Dynamics and Geopolitical Strategies
The contemporary international order reflects a prevailing trend of non-cooperative, asymmetric, and zero-sum dynamics, as evidenced by recent policy shifts within the Washington administration. These developments further elevate the likelihood of electronic warfare emerging in strategically vital regions. Responses to geopolitical challenges vary widely across nations. The European Union employs normative power, utilizing its Global Human Rights Sanctions Regime to address atrocities like genocide and severe human rights violations. In contrast, the United States relies on coercive power, implementing targeted sanctions as a deterrent against nations involved in illicit activities. The disruptions caused by ongoing conflicts and the shifting strategic importance of certain regions have profound implications for Asia-Pacific, impacting its economic framework, security dynamics, and diplomatic initiatives. For instance, much-anticipated agreements, such as the ASEAN-EU free trade deal, face derailment due to internal member state instability and regional unrest. Meanwhile, in East Asia, China’s strategic actions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, coupled with the region’s alignment with sanctions evasion, have intensified electronic warfare, a trend likely to continue.
Furthermore, the Arctic region’s evolving geopolitical tensions offer a glimpse into future electronic warfare tactics, with potential spillovers into the Asia-Pacific. It has long been discussed among scholars of international relations, policymakers, and more importantly, the scientific community, that the Arctic Sea ice is gradually melting, and soon the sea lane operations for trade and military activities will render the Arctic region even more the center stage of the geopolitical agenda. It is reported that the route that extends from Rotterdam to Shanghai (10,500 km/22 days) through the Northern Sea Route would potentially replace the Suez Canal route (18,000 km/37 days). The intelligence gathered through satellite images, one of the key being the homogenous thin ice regions, is pivotal for such Arctic sea lane strategies. The ripple effects of these developments could weaken ASEAN’s economic and strategic influence, as the proliferation of Northern Sea Routes draws attention away from traditional maritime trade lanes. While the Beijing administration has pursued a cooperative agenda through economic investments and research in Arctic nations, the Washington administration is appearing to give a hint of a coercive approach more reflective of the realism school of thought, emphasizing power competition and security considering the Arctic’s increasing geostrategic prominence.
